mappy Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I love when a threat pops up and all the horrible posters I have on ignore come out of the woodwork and post every 2 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Subscription is working well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I love when a threat pops up and all the horrible posters I have on ignore come out of the woodwork and post every 2 seconds. I've been doing that today, out of boredom. This threat is pretty lame. I keep forgetting to use the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 darn i changed my avatar before seeing its praise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I've been doing that today, out of boredom. This threat is pretty lame. I keep forgetting to use the banter thread. You, Wes, are not someone I have on ignore. I love your posts. But there are others who need to log off and take a long break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 You, Wes, are not someone I have on ignore. I love your posts. But there are others who need to log off and take a long break I'll try and make better posts in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Mitch...what are you talking about in the other thread re: a Miller B? I'm trying to learn something, but I have no idea what you're talking about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Mitch...what are you talking about in the other thread re: a Miller B? I'm trying to learn something, but I have no idea what you're talking about! the northern stream tries to dig enough to pop a low off the mid-atlantic coast. miller bs form from nc north mostly and are often redevelopers from a jumping clipper type low. this is a pretty poor example of one on the nam. http://mag.ncep.noaa...R&prevImage=yes tho really in some sense the storm tomorrow night is similar in formation .. but the 500 evolultion is kinda reversed -- strong to weaker v weak to stronger with "storm 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I love when a threat pops up and all the horrible posters I have on ignore come out of the woodwork and post every 2 seconds. Whoops. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 the northern stream tries to dig enough to pop a low off the mid-atlantic coast. miller bs form from nc north mostly and are often redevelopers from a jumping clipper type low. this is a pretty poor example of one on the nam. http://mag.ncep.noaa...R&prevImage=yes tho really in some sense the storm tomorrow night is similar in formation .. but the 500 evolultion is kinda reversed -- strong to weaker v weak to stronger with "storm 2" Thanks, Ian. I do know the very basics about the evolution of a Miller B, but I just don't see what mitch was referring to. He mentioned the NAM at 57 hours, and in looking at that, I'm still a little confused. The frame in the link you provided makes a bit more sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Thanks, Ian. I do know the very basics about the evolution of a Miller B, but I just don't see what mitch was referring to. He mentioned the NAM at 57 hours, and in looking at that, I'm still a little confused. The frame in the link you provided makes a bit more sense to me. im not sure what he was talking about that early.. at least as far as it being potentially more interesting than tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 im not sure what he was talking about that early.. at least as far as it being potentially more interesting than tomorrow night Gotcha. Glad to know I wasn't completely off my rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Has kdca had a freeze yet? If not, this would be two wintery events prior to a freeze, even though they both probably don't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Has kdca had a freeze yet? If not, this would be two wintery events prior to a freeze, even though they both probably don't amount to much. no.. probably looking at 4th latest ever tho may slip into 3rd if somehow it holds past saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Possible storm threats in the mid-long range? Unfortunately, 0z GFS shows an abhorrent lack of cold air after day 5. There is another shortwave behind the upcoming system that I hoped would materialize into something legit. Pattern is way too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Possible storm threats in the mid-long range? Unfortunately, 0z GFS shows an abhorrent lack of cold air after day 5. There is another shortwave behind the upcoming system that I hoped would materialize into something legit. Pattern is way too progressive. Given how bad the rest of that pattern is, I think you need more ridging in the western us/Canada. That ridge is kind of bootleg and probably not good enough. That would be the only way to get something half decent probably in this pattern. That Atlantic is wretched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Given how bad the rest of that pattern is, I think you need more ridging in the western us/Canada. That ridge is kind of bootleg and probably not good enough. That would be the only way to get something half decent probably in this pattern. That Atlantic is wretched. Agreed. This pattern fooking stinks. Even for New England you need some semblance of ridging out west if the ATL is garbage which it is. This pattern will remind us all that we aren't the cascades or Sierra Nevada for snow...its been a good run for the East Coast in the last 10 years, but it won't keep up in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Agreed. This pattern fooking stinks. Even for New England you need some semblance of ridging out west if the ATL is garbage which it is. This pattern will remind us all that we aren't the cascades or Sierra Nevada for snow...its been a good run for the East Coast in the last 10 years, but it won't keep up in this pattern. The pattern stinks and looks to stink for quite awhile. Hopefully, we can get a break later in Jan but that's not a sure think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 ...its been a good run for the East Coast in the last 10 years, but it won't keep up in this pattern. It is obvious you live in a different east coast than I do. I have had exactly one good winter (09-10) and one okay winter (10-11) since moving here in 2005. My snow totals for 05-06, 06-07, 07-08, and 08-09 prior to the March '09 storm equaled 6" and most of that came in December of 05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Here are my benchmarks for early in the snow season. So far, I have had more snow this year (4.0") than 1931-32 (1.4") and 1972-73 (3.0") did in this area. With a little more than an inch more, I can surpass 2001-02 (4.9") and 2008-09 (5.1") Two inches, and I blow by 1930-31 (5.7".) Three inches and I pass 1954-55 (6.7") With 4" I can meet or exceed 1937-38 (7.7") 1994-95 (8.0") and 1949-50 (8.0") Hoping to put a dent in this tonight and climb the ladder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Rain in winter is so ugly. My backyard is grass-covered mud until and unless the ground freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It is obvious you live in a different east coast than I do. I have had exactly one good winter (09-10) and one okay winter (10-11) since moving here in 2005. My snow totals for 05-06, 06-07, 07-08, and 08-09 prior to the March '09 storm equaled 6" and most of that came in December of 05. Still this seems to be the era of the HECS, the east coast has been seeing an increasing number of snowbombs since the 1950-1980 period, with the 2000s having more HECS than any other decade. 2010/11 continued the trend up in the NE, but even the snowiest decades have off years, usually. With the Sun continuing to die off into a grand minimum as seen in the maunder, theres a good chance things continue to improve from my perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 why are people still discussing Justin Berk and his forecast? Good god people, leave the man alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Dropping 1.75 degrees per hour now, 39 now and imagine mixing here by 6:30? expecting and inch or so from this big ass rain storm 1.15 in the bucket since midnight and all from constant steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Dropping 1.75 degrees per hour now, 39 now and imagine mixing here by 6:30? expecting and inch or so from this big ass rain storm 1.15 in the bucket since midnight and all from constant steady rain. I think you'll get considerably more than an inch of snow this evening. With your elevation there, you're probably good for 3"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I think you'll get considerably more than an inch of snow this evening. With your elevation there, you're probably good for 3"+. yes I now believe that too, it has been sleeting here past 15 minutes and deck is getting covered even at 36.1 there was a quick temp drop past 2 hours after a slow fall all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just venting a litte. The Euro and GFS are pretty craptastic in the lr. Just a couple days ago they both had a pretty cold look and its been replaced by seasonal to above normal. The euro even flexes a se ridge on the 17th. I already know the major indicies are stinkers but that doesn't mean we can't get brief cold shots. I was so sure that we we're going to have a cold dec this year but it looks like the opposite is going to happen. I hate chasing pattern flips too. Been there done that......alot. Always @ day 10. Oh well what can you do? /rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I bet no one has wondered what this would be like if it were all snow. Man...can you imagine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I bet no one has wondered what this would be like if it were all snow. Man...can you imagine? I did, and then I poured another vodka club soda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I did, and then I poured another vodka club soda. Lime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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