BethesdaWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Well yes but its the location of the MJO that blows either way, region 5 just might be the worst octant in existence for us in December. If I remember correctly it was the euro that had the MJO stalling out while the GFS had the wave surging through the octants until the GFS jumped in with Euro. Regardless of the speed the MJO it looks iffy at best for us likely through Xmas, at least that's the way I see it and I've been wrong plenty of times before. We can score without a perfect setup (or so ive been told ) but I don't feel comfortable relying on a +PNA during a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 For what it's worth, the 00Z had an interesting look when looking over the ensemble members. For around the 5 day time period the members were pretty uniform in a decent alignment and placement of the PV for the East Coast. Most had heights building into Greenland with about half of the members showing, at best, signs of a transitory pseudo 50/50 low. One of the key differences though was basically the timing and placement of shortwaves dropping around the base of the PV with most members showing some sort of event in the 4 to 6 day period. 3 members, with decent timing of these features, actually had a decent to a fairly significant snow event for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 For what it's worth, the 00Z had an interesting look when looking over the ensemble members. For around the 5 day time period the members were pretty uniform in a decent alignment and placement of the PV for the East Coast. Most had heights building into Greenland with about half of the members showing, at best, signs of a transitory pseudo 50/50 low. One of the key differences though was basically the timing and placement of shortwaves dropping around the base of the PV with most members showing some sort of event in the 4 to 6 day period. 3 members, with decent timing of these features, actually had a decent to a fairly significant snow event for the Mid Atlantic. Not a big fan of the off runs but interestingly enough the 06z GFS op has these features showing up as well. A 50/50, Heights building into Greenland, decent PV placement with decent timing on a shortwave. Not surprisingly it also shows a significant snow event for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not a big fan of the off runs but interestingly enough the 06z GFS op has these features showing up as well. A 50/50, Heights building into Greenland, decent PV placement with decent timing on a shortwave. Not surprisingly it also shows a significant snow event for the Mid Atlantic. Most of the 6z ensemble members have the storm, one way or another. About 5 of the members look like they'd be accumulating snow for our area. A couple look like snow-to-rain, a few just rain and the rest either don't have the storm or keep it out of our area. I'd call that fair consensus. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_6z/f120.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Most of the 6z ensemble members have the storm, one way or another. About 5 of the members look like they'd be accumulating snow for our area. A couple look like snow-to-rain, a few just rain and the rest either don't have the storm or keep it out of our area. I'd call that fair consensus. http://www.meteo.psu...RS_6z/f120.html To be honest. While I am pretty confident of an event in the East around the 5 day time frame I think what we see with verification is a storm riding up to our west where the mountains and inland areas to our north do well with snow. One of the key factors will be the PV placement and alignment. What we see often times is the models have a habit of overplaying the southern and eastern extension and I think that is coming into play now. Earlier runs have had this suppressed and out to sea and have progressively moved it left and north as it draws nearer. The 00z members had a decent PV placement and it looks as if the 06Z followed suit on that. But if you look at the individual 06Z members they seem to have pulled the PV a little north and west of the 00z and you have to wonder if the 12Z suite will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The SNE crew is all convinced this storm will be completely surpressed south, while the MA crew will all be watching the inevitable northward trend all week. Congrats NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 fwiw until the next gfs run in a couple of hours, BWI is all snow with around 1.25" qpf I know it isn't going to happen, but it's nice to at least see a cyber snow storm that doesn't have a date between 12/5/09-3/15/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The SNE crew is all convinced this storm will be completely surpressed south, while the MA crew will all be watching the inevitable northward trend all week. Congrats NYC? At five days there is plenty of time for changes but to me with the progressive shift west and north over the last few days I would think that would bode well for those farther west and north at seeing snow. I did see mention that the #1 CIPS analog from the 00Z showed a nice hit for the Mid Atlantic so there is always hope down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Finally wandered over the NE sub-forum to see what the references to it had been about from some of you. Wow. That's a fun read. They've turned on each other. It's like the fight scene from Anchorman. I think someone was stabbed with a trident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I guess this is more like summer banter, but don't know where else to put this. I'm at a conference and I overheard someone yesterday discussing climate projections for the Mid-Atlantic. He said, in the "business as usual" scenario from IPCC, the climate model he used showed an Arlington to north NJ corridor having normal high temps at 100F from the beginning of June until end of August. He used a 10km resolution model. Congrats Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think we have to like where we sit with this storm. Seems likely that someone around this area will get some snow with the look of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I guess this is more like summer banter, but don't know where else to put this. I'm at a conference and I overheard someone yesterday discussing climate projections for the Mid-Atlantic. He said, in the "business as usual" scenario from IPCC, the climate model he used showed an Arlington to north NJ corridor having normal high temps at 100F from the beginning of June until end of August. He used a 10km resolution model. Congrats Ian? too bad most of these guys are full of it with these predictions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 too bad most of these guys are full of it with these predictions.... Forgot to clarify that that prediction was at the end of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Forgot to clarify that that prediction was at the end of the century. If it gets that hot by the end of the century...I suppose I will just have to put some vent holes in my casket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I do like the fact that there is moisture on the models....timing is everything obviously but cold without moisture or the other way isn't very exciting....although I do like cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I do like the fact that there is moisture on the models....timing is everything obviously but cold without moisture or the other way isn't very exciting....although I do like cold air I'm on the anti-moisture train. Good for business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I wonder how this will affect my Thursday commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I only like white moisture. Wet moisture is for suckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 it's times like these I wish I could be someone else... CT Blizz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If it gets that hot by the end of the century...I suppose I will just have to put some vent holes in my casket. I'll be ashes anyway, so all's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I wonder how this will affect my Thursday commute You may want to leave now I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I only like white moisture. Wet moisture is for suckers. White moisture isn't for suckers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 White moisture isn't for suckers? No. Not at all. White moisture is for weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 fwiw- nao, ao, and pna forecasts are not as disgusting as they have been. Gotta wonder what the seond half of dec brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I just want to see it snow this week to watch the responses from the "Winter Cancel" people who have been prefacing every post they make with "but this crappy pattern we're in...*sighs*" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 sun angle could be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I wonder how this will affect my Thursday commute Use your fri commute from this past weekend and multiply by 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 sun angle could be a problem It's also warm leading up to the event. Snow Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'll buy a round of drinks at old E for whoever makes it if DCA gets 2"+ from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'll buy a round of drinks at old E for whoever makes it if DCA gets 2"+ from this. Euro says get a second job.............to pay for the drinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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