2011 Winter Banter Thread

[WVclimo]

I caught the tail end of a news bit on WTOP this am in the car. Some guy with a last name Crum or Krum or something was saying that there will be at least 3 noreasters this winter and that Frederick County MD will be prepared for big snows. I was like "wut?".

Anyone else catch that on the news? I wish I heard the beginning of the bit because publicly saying something like that when the odds are seriously against it is kinda risky.

Edit: I just checked WTOP's site and this was on the front page: http://www.wtop.com/...=41&sid=2635291

Wut!?!?

Donnie Crum is the Assistant Superintendent for Highway Operations in Frederick County, MD. He was probably going off of Bob Ryan's forecast.

[BethesdaWX]

You know what? I've been kind of quietly thinking the same. I am thinking the end of the winter will be the best chances for storms, which isn't typically La Nina climo. The past few years has been nothing but "CLIMO" We all know 2009-2010's strong El Nino was totally opposite. It's been a few crazy years that didn't quite follow what's "supposed" to happen. I'm no expert in long range at all, but I am agreeing this won't be a typical La Nina. Warm and not so snowy start to some possible good chances and colder inJanuary and February. Likely average to just below average snow, but we could get that ONE big storm that dumps a good amount. You never know.

Yay I'm not on my own! I'm somewhat talking out of my ass when I mention the IOD, because I don't know it's exact forcing function, if there is one I'd assume to look in the MJO tendancy.

My older brother has a BS in atmospheric science and has gunned for the solar physics area of research. He showed me some correlations between The ENSO, geomag solar pulse, and the interplanetary magnetic field, and it just blew me away. I'm pretty much spending an overload of time researching the physics behind proton interaction and the climate system, but this is pretty awesome.

He sent these to me via PDF, I'm asking him if I can post his PDF here because I think it'll draw some attention. The correlation between the 2009/10 El Nino event and the 2003/04 geomag peak.

So ENSO lags the Sun by 6 or 7 years.

2003/04 impulse is showing up in the 2009/10 ONI, and the global temperature seems to match up too as far as the spike this summer goes.

If there is a mechanism for this it would be through alterations in albedo and available energy. I find this interesting, and in knowing our position relative to equilbrium, in 1 year some changes should begin to take place globally..

[BethesdaWX]

I caught the tail end of a news bit on WTOP this am in the car. Some guy with a last name Crum or Krum or something was saying that there will be at least 3 noreasters this winter and that Frederick County MD will be prepared for big snows. I was like "wut?".

Anyone else catch that on the news? I wish I heard the beginning of the bit because publicly saying something like that when the odds are seriously against it is kinda risky.

Edit: I just checked WTOP's site and this was on the front page: http://www.wtop.com/...=41&sid=2635291

Wut!?!?

Well yeah it wouldn't be surprising to me once the pattern changes, really feels To Me like a calm before the storm period for the next 3-5 weeks.

[mitchnick]

if the NOV QBO comes in at or near -10, then I'm still in for a decent winter

but if it's hanging around (iow, the stall of death) the OCT number of -3.05, the purely statistical chances of a decent winter based on a rapidly falling/substantially negative QBO number is "probably" lost

the number should be out Monday or Tuesday next week, so we'll see

[Bob Chill]

Well yeah it wouldn't be surprising to me once the pattern changes, really feels to me like a calm before the storm period for the next 3-5 weeks.

It's the noreaster part that kinda threw me. I'm not sure how we get a favorable pattern for multiple miller a's. Miller b's that clobber NE don't really do much down here.

The only thing I've been finding interesting is the 4 corner closed lows this year. Right now is a good example. In a nina with a +pna we would normally expect a ns impulse to dive out of canada and track to our south to give us decent snows.

Of course, the current closed low in the sw has a crappy environment downstream to do much around here but that's not always the case. Gotta wonder if we might have more lp systems entering the desert sw as the pna starts flexing positive. They can slide in underneath the ridge and track across tx and tap the gulf. Just need a -nao to keep it from cutting.

I envisioned most of our snow chances to come from ns vorts dropping out of canada and rounding the base of an ec trough and not a system tracking across the sw and tapping the gulf.

[Deck Pic]

It's the noreaster part that kinda threw me. I'm not sure how we get a favorable pattern for multiple miller a's. Miller b's that clobber NE don't really do much down here.

The only thing I've been finding interesting is the 4 corner closed lows this year. Right now is a good example. In a nina with a +pna we would normally expect a ns impulse to dive out of canada and track to our south to give us decent snows.

Of course, the current closed low in the sw has a crappy environment downstream to do much around here but that's not always the case. Gotta wonder if we might have more lp systems entering the desert sw as the pna starts flexing positive. They can slide in underneath the ridge and track across tx and tap the gulf. Just need a -nao to keep it from cutting.

I envisioned most of our snow chances to come from ns vorts dropping out of canada and rounding the base of an ec trough and not a system tracking across the sw and tapping the gulf.

even with a block, those events in a Nina often shear out or don't amplify.....you really need the northern stream to dig and phase....

[ORH_wxman]

if the NOV QBO comes in at or near -10, then I'm still in for a decent winter

but if it's hanging around (iow, the stall of death) the OCT number of -3.05, the purely statistical chances of a decent winter based on a rapidly falling/substantially negative QBO number is "probably" lost

the number should be out Monday or Tuesday next week, so we'll see

The upper stratosphere is beginning to warm a little bit in the arctic which may finally be a little bit of response to the -QBO which is becoming a bit deeper now. This still leaves the door open for some blocking in January if it can continue and hopefully it helps amplify any SSWs. I highly doubt we see any blocking in December...maybe the very end of the month if lucky.

[Bob Chill]

even with a block, those events in a Nina often shear out or don't amplify.....you really need the northern stream to dig and phase....

Hmmm. So what you're saying is we need to time a vort diving south to phase with the energy tracking across tx? Heh, how many times have we watched models show the phase, lose it, show it again, and the ultimate solution is a near miss with a messy strung out pos finish.

[WxUSAF]

Anybody ever heard of "Lezak's Recurring Cycle"? I hadn't before just now. My sister emailed me about it today since Tony Pann (WBAL met in Baltimore) made a blog post about it. Apparently some TV mets and even NWS mets use it in the Midwest and find it helpful. Google returns a pretty long list of sites about it.

Anyway, here's the blog post about it and the relevant "forecast" using this LRC method. http://www.wbaltv.com/weather-blog/index.html

December:

Big Snow Possible sometime between the 16th & the 20th. A strong cold snap possible at that time as well.

January:

Moderate Snow Possible between the 1st and the 5th. Temps will be well below average.

February:

Big Snow Possible between the 1st and the 4th. A strong cold snap possible as well.

Moderate Snow Possible between the 16th and the 20th. Temps will be well below average.

[BethesdaWX]

Anybody ever heard of "Lezak's Recurring Cycle"? I hadn't before just now. My sister emailed me about it today since Tony Pann (WBAL met in Baltimore) made a blog post about it. Apparently some TV mets and even NWS mets use it in the Midwest and find it helpful. Google returns a pretty long list of sites about it.

Anyway, here's the blog post about it and the relevant "forecast" using this LRC method. http://www.wbaltv.co...blog/index.html

I've heard of it, I sometimes wonder if the LRC is really the MJO forcing cycle but I'm not really qualified to speak on that matter.

[mitchnick]

related to some of HM's posts in the main forum, you can see the cause for the AO going crazy

look at how the sunspot number jumped since the summer (bottom list, but see graph below monthly sunspot number list and see the huge spike in the last few months...oy))

http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

look at the period leading up to and through the 01/02 winter; same problem, sun went wild

otoh, look at the sunspot numbers during the last 2 winters; there's your blocking

if the sun keeps going wild......fergitit

[BethesdaWX]

related to some of HM's posts in the main forum, you can see the cause for the AO going crazy

look at how the sunspot number jumped since the summer (bottom list, but see graph below monthly sunspot number list and see the huge spike in the last few months...oy))

http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

look at the period leading up to and through the 01/02 winter; same problem, sun went wild

otoh, look at the sunspot numbers during the last 2 winters; there's your blocking

if the sun keeps going wild......fergitit

Yeah but the solar flux (impact to earth) is relatively low to almost all of the past 50 years, and we've had -NAOs during solar maxes.

[mitchnick]

Yeah but the solar flux (impact to earth) is relatively low to almost all of the past 50 years, and we've had -NAOs during solar maxes.

apparently, there are years that the sunspot number rules and this is one of those years (for whatever reason)

EDIT: just to clarify, I mean with respect to the high number of sunspots causing the strongly +AO

[aldie 22]

6z GFS doesn't look very warm at all in the extended...as far as I can tell anyway.

[Deck Pic]

Don't read the New England forum unless you are seeking a period of suicidal ideation.

[usedtobe]

Yeah but the solar flux (impact to earth) is relatively low to almost all of the past 50 years, and we've had -NAOs during solar maxes.

Some of that is explained by solar maxes combined with westerly qbos. Usually the sudden stratospheric warming and associated blocking occur later in the season but not alwasy. Solar mins and a ssw events tend to be associated with an easterly qbo....that certainly what happened in 2009-2010 but we also had a el nino which actually gives you more ssw events.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-3297.1

I don't know what the actually causes of the NAM being so positive late this fall into December but think it does mean this month we are in trouble. I'e already posted the strong vortex stuff elsewhere.

[usedtobe]

The upper stratosphere is beginning to warm a little bit in the arctic which may finally be a little bit of response to the -QBO which is becoming a bit deeper now. This still leaves the door open for some blocking in January if it can continue and hopefully it helps amplify any SSWs. I highly doubt we see any blocking in December...maybe the very end of the month if lucky.

Will, that's pretty much how I see things. Hopefully, we're both wrong and blocking occurs earlier than expected.

[BethesdaWX]

Some of that is explained by solar maxes combined with westerly qbos. Usually the sudden stratospheric warming and associated blocking occur later in the season but not alwasy. Solar mins and a ssw events tend to be associated with an easterly qbo....that certainly what happened in 2009-2010 but we also had a el nino which actually gives you more ssw events.

http://journals.amet...1175/JAS-3297.1

I don't know what the actually causes of the NAM being so positive late this fall into December but think it does mean this month we are in trouble. I'e already posted the strong vortex stuff elsewhere.

Thanks for the link. One thing I noticed before the +AO went wild was that the Global Lower Troposphere ended up cooling significantly through early November while the Surface remained quite warm, and once those trends reversed the +AO took off. Do you know of any causative mechanism for that? There seems to be some sort of correlation between the deviation between the LT and Surface temperature anomalies and the AO.

[chris21]

Btw, what was the state of the AO during the cold snap and mountain snowstorm around October 1st and 2nd. I was living in far southern Maryland at the time and both of those days broke record low maximums at PAX NAS. That storm pretty much destroyed the rest of the fall fishing season (in the bay and lower potomac) as all of the spot (one of the primary baitfish for rockfish and bluefish) left for the bay a month and a half early and it seemed that most of the fish went with them.

[usedtobe]

Btw, what was the state of the AO during the cold snap and mountain snowstorm around October 1st and 2nd. I was living in far southern Maryland at the time and both of those days broke record low maximums at PAX NAS. That storm pretty much destroyed the rest of the fall fishing season (in the bay and lower potomac) as all of the spot (one of the primary baitfish for rockfish and bluefish) left for the bay a month and a half early and it seemed that most of the fish went with them.

We had a very short period with a negative noa sandwiched in a period with a positive one. I know, the fishing for largemouth bass stayed OK through October and you can probably still catch some but now is the time for Crappie. I'm not into them so much so I'm now golfing until March.

[usedtobe]

Thanks for the link. One thing I noticed before the +AO went wild was that the Global Lower Troposphere ended up cooling significantly through early November while the Surface remained quite warm, and once those trends reversed the +AO took off. Do you know of any causative mechanism for that? There seems to be some sort of correlation between the deviation between the LT and Surface temperature anomalies and the AO.

I don't know about any linkage, I think part of the reason the AO took off is because of the strengthening of the stratospheric vortex but don't really know. The more active sun and lack of of much ozone may have also played a role. That's all speculation as I really don't have an answer.

[mitchnick]

if the NOV QBO comes in at or near -10, then I'm still in for a decent winter

but if it's hanging around (iow, the stall of death) the OCT number of -3.05, the purely statistical chances of a decent winter based on a rapidly falling/substantially negative QBO number is "probably" lost

the number should be out Monday or Tuesday next week, so we'll see

saved by the bell

new QBO (November's ending number) is -9.09

http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data

I remain hard-headed that our winter be good based on a steadily dropping east (negative) QBO

EDIT: full thread here: http://www.americanw...ats-for-winter/

[pythium]

No Doubt we are in for a wild ride............JUST WAIT alittle

[BethesdaWX]

saved by the bell

new QBO (November's ending number) is -9.09

http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data

I remain hard-headed that our winter be good based on a steadily dropping east (negative) QBO

EDIT: full thread here: http://www.americanw...ats-for-winter/

I'm not convinced in Ninas given 2007/08, I'm already hinged on the QBO for 2013/14 which is our next El Nino...need that one negative for sure

[mitchnick]

I'm not convinced in Ninas given 2007/08, I'm already hinged on the QBO for 2013/14 which is our next El Nino...need that one negative for sure

07/08 didn't meet my statistical criteria because the QBO went negative in 4/07 (as opposed to June or later) and bottomed out in 11/07 and was rising throughout the winter months

it seems we want the QBO to be falling throughout the winter (not rising and not flat-lining either); see my original thread

[Bob Chill]

07/08 didn't meet my statistical criteria because the QBO went negative in 4/07 (as opposed to June or later) and bottomed out in 11/07 and was rising throughout the winter months

it seems we want the QBO to be falling throughout the winter (not rising and not flat-lining either); see my original thread

I know just enough about the qbo to be seriously dangerous but I'm riding the mitch qbo train until Wes hit's the cancel button.

Ensemble nao and ao forceasts show both dropping rather steeply in the next week but they both hit the zero line and bounce right back up. NAO only bounces to pos neutral past 7 days or so. It will be interesting to see what the forecasts look like a week from now. Pac showing no signs of improving but nothing is really showing a torch anytime in the future.

We're getting closer to the climo time of year when we don't need perfect setups and can sneak in an even even when almost nothing else is cooperating much.

[BethesdaWX]

dunno this looks pretty ugly, MJO forecasted to stall out in the octants of death.

[usedtobe]

I know just enough about the qbo to be seriously dangerous but I'm riding the mitch qbo train until Wes hit's the cancel button.

Ensemble nao and ao forceasts show both dropping rather steeply in the next week but they both hit the zero line and bounce right back up. NAO only bounces to pos neutral past 7 days or so. It will be interesting to see what the forecasts look like a week from now. Pac showing no signs of improving but nothing is really showing a torch anytime in the future.

We're getting closer to the climo time of year when we don't need perfect setups and can sneak in an even even when almost nothing else is cooperating much.

Bob. I'm not sure that's true, I think in December it's still hard to get snow in a bad pattern. I also have noted that the AO has been way too low on the model forecasts and that they never get below zero.

[Bob Chill]

Bob. I'm not sure that's true, I think in December it's still hard to get snow in a bad pattern. I also have noted that the AO has been way too low on the model forecasts and that they never get below zero.

Yea, hard to disagree there. AO hasn't even considered going negative for 3 months now. It's way over my head to understand the "whys" but it's pretty clear that something changed a few months ago and the ao has become quite stubborn.

We are getting some transient troughs though. It's probably sheer weenieism but maybe we pull off a miracle with some 500 energy to our south when one of these transient troughs comes through. At least there is no indication of a stubborn se ridge developing.....yet.

[Topher]

dunno this looks pretty ugly, MJO forecasted to stall out in the octants of death.

If you look at the 1-week or 2-week verification you would see that these forecasts are usually wrong. The problem is that the GFS/GEFS is usually to slow with the progression or way off with their forecasts(saw this all of last winter). I've seen a lot of talk about mjo this year compared to last year(which is good) but I would take these forecasts with a grain of salt. I'm not saying you believed that the forecasts was gonna play out like that but just showing that it is usually to slow/way off.

Here's the 1 week verification

Here's the 2 week verification