Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 iow, not another last year....I agree yea, last year was a stinger for sure. Having everywhere N-E-S-W of us get good snow and not us was like some sort of voodoo or something. I'm still pretty confident on a near climo snow year. This crappy pattern is not a pre-cursor imo. It would be if it started in mid to late Dec though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Just from a climo perspective, since IAD started keeping records in 1963, all 3 airports have been shut out in December (0 or T) only 9 times. So we get an accumulating snowfall event at least somewhere in the general metro area over 80% of the time. So even with the bad pattern, I still think it is more likely than not that someone in the general metro area within 25 miles of the cities and below 500' gets accumulating snow of some sort before December is over. Very much agree with you. Especially because the crappy pattern is going to become stale by mid dec. We've both lived here long enough to know that when the patter does flip, things can change in a real hurry. How many times have we heard "I can't believe it's snowng. It's been so warm the last couple of weeks.". I would be very suprised if we didn't have a decent cold spell with a snow thread before Dec is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wes just cancelled winter. After don Sutherland cancelled winter...Wes said he wished he had made a forecast similar to Don Welcome to 01-02 folks except that winter had one Minor storm It's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wes just cancelled winter. After don Sutherland cancelled winter...Wes said he wished he had made a forecast similar to Don Welcome to 01-02 folks except that winter had one Minor storm It's over Don said he favored warmth but that there would probably be some periods of snow and cold for the M.A. It might not be great, but I don't think he actually cancelled winter. We have no idea how January will turn out. Jan 2000 was pretty decent down there for 2-3 weeks in an otherwise horrific winter for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Don said he favored warmth but that there would probably be some periods of snow and cold for the M.A. It might not be great, but I don't think he actually cancelled winter. We have no idea how January will turn out. Jan 2000 was pretty decent down there for 2-3 weeks in an otherwise horrific winter for the east. Don said NYC would share in the misery of phl and dc. Sounds like cancel to me. Not once do we ever cancel summer...only winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wes just cancelled winter. After don Sutherland cancelled winter...Wes said he wished he had made a forecast similar to Don Welcome to 01-02 folks except that winter had one Minor storm It's over 2001-02 sucked ballz....it was the worst Winter ever. In fact since 99 I've had alot of bad Winters including 1999-2000, 01-02, 06-07 and 09-10. I'm not cancelling Winter. I mean Dec 93 and 04 had sudden changes so I'd rather wait but I dont like the weather pattern over the next few weeks with limited blocking and horrible Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 2001-02 sucked ballz....it was the worst Winter ever. In fact since 99 I've had alot of bad Winters including 1999-2000, 01-02, 06-07 and 09-10. I'm not cancelling Winter. I mean Dec 93 and 04 had sudden changes so I'd rather wait but I dont like the weather pattern over the next few weeks with limited blocking and horrible Pacific. 09-10 wasn't too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 09-10 wasn't too bad For you it was great but further north in SONT it sucked. Consistent suppressed storms with that blocking centered across Quebec/Labrador. I got like 25" that Winter, something like that while my normal is double that. Lets see wat happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wes just cancelled winter. After don Sutherland cancelled winter...Wes said he wished he had made a forecast similar to Don Welcome to 01-02 folks except that winter had one Minor storm It's over I don't see a recent Wes post in the AO thread. Where has he posted updated thoughts? CWG article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Personnaly, I believe it is somewhat premature to cancel a winter that doesn't start for over three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'm a big fan of the lack of weenie threads. Winter cancel forever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Personnaly, I believe it is somewhat premature to cancel a winter that doesn't start for over three weeks. Or 2 days. Astro winter is lose.. Especially here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'm just hoping that we get something meaningful (warning criteria snow) in early to mid January (that has really been lacking in the past 10 years or so). A snowless December isn't a big deal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I want something to track even of it busts...sometimes the storm on paper is better than the actual storm. Last year sucked for but it was mostly exciting because there was always hope on the horizon This year is a complete utter disaster and forget December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Don said NYC would share in the misery of phl and dc. Sounds like cancel to me. Not once do we ever cancel summer...only winter I said I hoped that we could still pop a negative nao for a month so it was not a complete capitulation. I do think Dec is toast but no forecasts in the longer range are that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 HM was talking about the recent uptick with the sun that is helping to destroy the ozone, thereby cooling stratospheric temps and raising NAO here's a graph that shows the activity it has been quite the anomalous spike if you compare it to prior activity on the graphs (blue line on top graph of Cycle 23-24) it does look like that we have peaked so hopefully we've got some hope, but how long the lag between the drop and warming of strat temps is the question now http://www.solen.inf...r/solcycle.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 My BGE bill has been awfully friendly so far this late fall with the extended warm weather. I don't hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 As a winter threat tracker..... I've been awfully bored this month. Cut off low is nice and all. Weather feels great and good on the energy bills. Interesting weather (of the colder variety) is sorely lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 So, winter cancel for Dec - I can deal with that. But I don't buy winter cancel for the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I usually try to find something to watch in the models and indicies but man, this is one boring period we're in. NAO and AO forecasts are absolutely atrocious. +PNA not gonna be around long either (not that the current +pna is doing anything). If Dec ends up having a +NAO and AO monthly reading then it will be the first time since pre 1950 that both indices average in positive territory for the Sept - December timeframe. Individually the indices have stayed positive during the Sept - Dec timeframe a few times: NAO: 56, 59, 99, 07 AO: 71, 75 99 is probably the closest statistical match I can find for matching both indicies together. The AO was just slightly negative in Oct. 1956 is the closest with the NAO. Quite similar in fact. I did find an interesting connection between all these years. They are all Nina winters with the exception of 59. However, 59 did feature negative enso temps just not strong enough to classify it as a Nina. Even deeper into the connection showed that 56, 71, 75, & 99 were all second or third year Ninas (75 was a 3rd year). I would post the analog composite maps but I'm not going to. Trust me. You don't want to see them. With the exception of 1975, December was warm to very warm in every other year. I'm not sounding any alarms. Just posting what I found. But if December does come in warm I think the odds might be stacked against us a bit this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Sounds like a stretch there is no way he had a white thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I usually try to find something to watch in the models and indicies but man, this is one boring period we're in. NAO and AO forecasts are absolutely atrocious. +PNA not gonna be around long either (not that the current +pna is doing anything). If Dec ends up having a +NAO and AO monthly reading then it will be the first time since pre 1950 that both indices average in positive territory for the Sept - December timeframe. Individually the indices have stayed positive during the Sept - Dec timeframe a few times: NAO: 56, 59, 99, 07 AO: 71, 75 99 is probably the closest statistical match I can find for matching both indicies together. The AO was just slightly negative in Oct. 1956 is the closest with the NAO. Quite similar in fact. I did find an interesting connection between all these years. They are all Nina winters with the exception of 59. However, 59 did feature negative enso temps just not strong enough to classify it as a Nina. Even deeper into the connection showed that 56, 71, 75, & 99 were all second or third year Ninas (75 was a 3rd year). I would post the analog composite maps but I'm not going to. Trust me. You don't want to see them. With the exception of 1975, December was warm to very warm in every other year. I'm not sounding any alarms. Just posting what I found. But if December does come in warm I think the odds might be stacked against us a bit this year. in the NAO group, the only real stinker at BWI was 07/08 winter, 56/57 had 15.4" (an inch more than last year) and 59/60 and 99/00 had above normal snows in the AO pair, 71/72 had 14" and 75/76 was the stinker at 11.5" sooooo, if we can stay away from an 07/08 repeat, we should see some snow I note as well that almost every one of the those years, except 07/08 and 75/76, had at least one month with double digit snows (usually JAN, but one with FEB) and all had terrible DECs; 3/76 came close to double digits with almost 8" from an underforecasted early March snow that maybe Wes recalls I'm on the HM train, JAN will be our month/possibly into early FEB and fwiw, CFS forecasts over the month of NOV have been turning DEC warmer than normal and JAN and FEB cooler than earlier forecasts (not saying colder than normal, just close to normal range for JAN and not as much above normal as in its early NOV forecasts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Personnaly, I believe it is somewhat premature to cancel a winter that doesn't start for over three weeks. Real winter starts Thursday, weenie winter starts in 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Real winter starts Thursday, weenie winter starts in 3 weeks. but only if there isn't snow in the forecast before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Astronomical winter is for n00bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 in the NAO group, the only real stinker at BWI was 07/08 winter, 56/57 had 15.4" (an inch more than last year) and 59/60 and 99/00 had above normal snows in the AO pair, 71/72 had 14" and 75/76 was the stinker at 11.5" sooooo, if we can stay away from an 07/08 repeat, we should see some snow I note as well that almost every one of the those years, except 07/08 and 75/76, had at least one month with double digit snows (usually JAN, but one with FEB) and all had terrible DECs; 3/76 came close to double digits with almost 8" from an underforecasted early March snow that maybe Wes recalls I'm on the HM train, JAN will be our month/possibly into early FEB and fwiw, CFS forecasts over the month of NOV have been turning DEC warmer than normal and JAN and FEB cooler than earlier forecasts (not saying colder than normal, just close to normal range for JAN and not as much above normal as in its early NOV forecasts) Thanks for pulling out the snowfall data. I only looked at temps and didn't dig any further. I'm still confident in near climo snows around the area. I'm just less confident in temps and extended favorable winter patterns. After digging through the #'s it was pretty interesting to see every year have a warm Dec except for one and even that one wasn't really cold. IF this Dec end up warm then the statiscal match becomes even better. Something I'll have to take note of and write down because my brain will forget it the next time we run into a similar pattern in the future. Cold Dec forcasts are in jeopardy right now. Having the best shot in the heart of the season is cool in my book too. Jan is a great month to dodge marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 there is no way he had a white thanksgiving No, he did. I was up in Princeton, MA about 12 mi north of ORH at relatives and they had snow on the ground for T-day. But its all gone now for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 No, he did. I was up in Princeton, MA about 12 mi north of ORH at relatives and they had snow on the ground for T-day. But its all gone now for sure. now that wasn't fair to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 THIS WINTER IS GOING TO BE THE BEST WINTER EVER! Oh wait, I was supposed to complain, wasn't I? December begins tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Should I be interested in the latest euro @ 168+? I use raleigh's site so it's kinda tough sometimes to indentify the finer details. Does 500mb energy close off and track across the va/nc border and pop a coastal? 24 hour panels are hard to figure out what's in between. 850 temps and winds look good too. I didn't see too much talk about this so i guess my weenie eyes are failing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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