mitchnick Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Good luck with that. How many times do we get accumulating snow with a strung out 500 trough, no real low with the snow coming post frontal when there is not much support from the ensembles? I'm not impressed. it may or may not happen as depicted on this run, but almost every front that has passed us this fall has seen a period of steady precip along with the cold air call it a gut feeling or a wishcast, I'm going with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 At least we're getting a +pna coming up. All the models pump up some ridging out west. Without a +pna in a nina year we're pretty screwed reegardless of the other indexes. At least there is "potential" to track something in the next couple of weeks. The AO looks like it want to drop off a bit. It's been sticking positive since august. Bounces up and down but hasn't gone negative in quite a while. I don't know if it means anything but the last time the AO went negative (and it was for a very short time) was right before the last Oct snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 At least we're getting a +pna coming up. All the models pump up some ridging out west. Without a +pna in a nina year we're pretty screwed reegardless of the other indexes. At least there is "potential" to track something in the next couple of weeks. The AO looks like it want to drop off a bit. It's been sticking positive since august. Bounces up and down but hasn't gone negative in quite a while. I don't know if it means anything but the last time the AO went negative (and it was for a very short time) was right before the last Oct snow storm. I just posted something in the Weather and Forecast forum that will probalby have Ji cancelling winter. I think the favorable PNA will be relatively short lived and see no real signs of he ao going negative. The forecasts on the ens mean lately have verified too low so any positive forecast is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I just posted something in the Weather and Forecast forum that will probalby have Ji cancelling winter. I think the favorable PNA will be relatively short lived and see no real signs of he ao going negative. The forecasts on the ens mean lately have verified too low so any positive forecast is not good. Nice post Wes and I totally agree with what you are saying. My pna post was really just the lemon/lemondade routine. I'm not too optimistic over the next month really. Obviously I'm not an expert or even well versed with most met stuff but I do pay attention. As soon as the crappy pac locked in I kinda knew we were in trouble for a little while. Certain patterns are super stubborn to break and this is one of them. It wouldn't surprise me at all to have a transient +pna and then have a big lp system drop down the west coast and start the cycle all over again. It's ok though. It is what it is. I believe the odds are really in our favor to break down the crappy pac and lock into some winter around here sometime in late december and carry well into jan. I was looking at the MJO and please correct me if I'm wrong but we're moving into warm east territory right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I just posted something in the Weather and Forecast forum that will probalby have Ji cancelling winter. I think the favorable PNA will be relatively short lived and see no real signs of he ao going negative. The forecasts on the ens mean lately have verified too low so any positive forecast is not good. i cancelled winter last night at 3:00am before your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Latest obs IAD 62* DCA 56* BWI 62* OKV 63* MRB 66* SHD 61* ROA 61* Hot Springs, 54* K2G4 (Oakland, MD) 52* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 18z seems to show a cold and snowy day 0n 12/12/11. Ji, where are you when we need you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 i cancelled winter last night at 3:00am before your post Okay please don't cancel this winter again since it's already cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 18z seems to show a cold and snowy day 0n 12/12/11. Ji, where are you when we need you? Do we really have to hear the same old played out line yet again in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 He is even coming into our threads to cancel Winter despite the fact that it's a White Thanksgiving here. Happy Thanksgiving people!!!! Sounds like a stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nice post Wes and I totally agree with what you are saying. My pna post was really just the lemon/lemondade routine. I'm not too optimistic over the next month really. Obviously I'm not an expert or even well versed with most met stuff but I do pay attention. As soon as the crappy pac locked in I kinda knew we were in trouble for a little while. Certain patterns are super stubborn to break and this is one of them. It wouldn't surprise me at all to have a transient +pna and then have a big lp system drop down the west coast and start the cycle all over again. It's ok though. It is what it is. I believe the odds are really in our favor to break down the crappy pac and lock into some winter around here sometime in late december and carry well into jan. I was looking at the MJO and please correct me if I'm wrong but we're moving into warm east territory right? Yes we are, phases 4-6 are warm in the east or at least don't offer any real pattern changing for the better. That's one of the reasons I think the positive pna pattern will be transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Yes we are, phases 4-6 are warm in the east or at least don't offer any real pattern changing for the better. That's one of the reasons I think the positive pna pattern will be transient. Thanks Wes. I still don't have a handle on the MJO stuff. Probably know just enough to be dangerous. I'm losing my weenie edge a litte. Spending 4 straight days outside and the last 2 in shorts and t-shirts was pretty darm pleasant. I wouldn't mind a few more so let the pattern ride. NAO and AO aren't budging out of positive territory. It's quite uncommon to have such a run like this. 3-4 months in a row at this point. Looking at all the monthlies back to 1950 have very few instances of this during the Sept-Dec timeframe. Gotta just kinda assume that it will break down and go favorable sometime during Dec. Probably late considering what's been happening in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 This is starting to look like a mid Jan-Feb winter for us as far as best shots at good storms. It would be what is expected as far as climo. If the pattern only starts to change mid/late Dec then it would take a bit longer to get into the right set-up for legit chances. Still time for me to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 This type of scenario doesn't bother me.....no snow when the pattern stinks or it's too warm or there just aren't any chances....it's when we are tracking something and as it gets closer then fizzles or misses is when I get pissy and start to moan and groan. In short no chance = no worries....opportunities that flop = cranky troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 This type of scenario doesn't bother me.....no snow when the pattern stinks or it's too warm or there just aren't any chances....it's when we are tracking something and as it gets closer then fizzles or misses is when I get pissy and start to moan and groan. In short no chance = no worries....opportunities that flop = cranky troll Absolutely. If we get a good look at a storm and/or the pattern is favorable but nothing comes of it, then I might get a little whiney about it. Bt if I have no expectations, then I don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I would readily take the warm weather now if it means we get a good storm later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 All this warm weather is bring out the bugs again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Took the dog for a walk this morning and noticed that one of my neighbors' forsythias is blooming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 well, at least the MA has a lot of company this winter it's gonna' be hard to keep playing the victim on this Board, but I think we'll find a way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 well, at least the MA has a lot of company this winter it's gonna' be hard to keep playing the victim on this Board, but I think we'll find a way As long as everyone else gets screwed, I'm OK if this winter sucks. I'd hate to waste a sucky winter on one where everyone else has it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Its gonna be sad when our best event to track was the one in late October... (tongue in cheek) (kinda) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 As long as everyone else gets screwed, I'm OK if this winter sucks. I'd hate to waste a sucky winter on one where everyone else has it good. iow, not another last year....I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 iow, not another last year....I agree yea, last year was a stinger for sure. Having everywhere N-E-S-W of us get good snow and not us was like some sort of voodoo or something. I'm still pretty confident on a near climo snow year. This crappy pattern is not a pre-cursor imo. It would be if it started in mid to late Dec though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 1322514437[/url]' post='1149170']yea, last year was a stinger for sure. Having everywhere N-E-S-W of us get good snow and not us was like some sort of voodoo or something. I'm still pretty confident on a near climo snow year. This crappy pattern is not a pre-cursor imo. It would be if it started in mid to late Dec though. Just from a climo perspective, since IAD started keeping records in 1963, all 3 airports have been shut out in December (0 or T) only 9 times. So we get an accumulating snowfall event at least somewhere in the general metro area over 80% of the time. So even with the bad pattern, I still think it is more likely than not that someone in the general metro area within 25 miles of the cities and below 500' gets accumulating snow of some sort before December is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Just from a climo perspective, since IAD started keeping records in 1963, all 3 airports have been shut out in December (0 or T) only 9 times. So we get an accumulating snowfall event at least somewhere in the general metro area over 80% of the time. So even with the bad pattern, I still think it is more likely than not that someone in the general metro area within 25 miles of the cities and below 500' gets accumulating snow of some sort before December is over. Very much agree with you. Especially because the crappy pattern is going to become stale by mid dec. We've both lived here long enough to know that when the patter does flip, things can change in a real hurry. How many times have we heard "I can't believe it's snowng. It's been so warm the last couple of weeks.". I would be very suprised if we didn't have a decent cold spell with a snow thread before Dec is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wes just cancelled winter. After don Sutherland cancelled winter...Wes said he wished he had made a forecast similar to Don Welcome to 01-02 folks except that winter had one Minor storm It's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wes just cancelled winter. After don Sutherland cancelled winter...Wes said he wished he had made a forecast similar to Don Welcome to 01-02 folks except that winter had one Minor storm It's over Don said he favored warmth but that there would probably be some periods of snow and cold for the M.A. It might not be great, but I don't think he actually cancelled winter. We have no idea how January will turn out. Jan 2000 was pretty decent down there for 2-3 weeks in an otherwise horrific winter for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Don said he favored warmth but that there would probably be some periods of snow and cold for the M.A. It might not be great, but I don't think he actually cancelled winter. We have no idea how January will turn out. Jan 2000 was pretty decent down there for 2-3 weeks in an otherwise horrific winter for the east. Don said NYC would share in the misery of phl and dc. Sounds like cancel to me. Not once do we ever cancel summer...only winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wes just cancelled winter. After don Sutherland cancelled winter...Wes said he wished he had made a forecast similar to Don Welcome to 01-02 folks except that winter had one Minor storm It's over 2001-02 sucked ballz....it was the worst Winter ever. In fact since 99 I've had alot of bad Winters including 1999-2000, 01-02, 06-07 and 09-10. I'm not cancelling Winter. I mean Dec 93 and 04 had sudden changes so I'd rather wait but I dont like the weather pattern over the next few weeks with limited blocking and horrible Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 2001-02 sucked ballz....it was the worst Winter ever. In fact since 99 I've had alot of bad Winters including 1999-2000, 01-02, 06-07 and 09-10. I'm not cancelling Winter. I mean Dec 93 and 04 had sudden changes so I'd rather wait but I dont like the weather pattern over the next few weeks with limited blocking and horrible Pacific. 09-10 wasn't too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.