usedtobe Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think that is what happened in Dec 2007. We got the vortex out of the gulf and got a brief PNA spike which gave us a decent clipper even with a + NAO. The rest of the month the EPO was no help with a -PNA and no blocking. New England was getting KU'ed what seemed like every other day while we were in the 50s. Maybe we can get a decent setup later in the month. Until then I would assume even when we get brief transient cold shots, any moisture flow will be to our north and west. I think that is correct. the other way you can get snow would be to have the tail end of a trough dig far enough south to close off a low which then would have to track just to our south. The 00Z operational euro has that solution but the euro ensemble mean is more progressive and is less closed off which is much more likely than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think that is correct. the other way you can get snow would be to have the tail end of a trough dig far enough south to close off a low which then would have to track just to our south. Those events are pretty entertaining though. They happen in the middle of a crappy pattern and usually kinda pop up the the short range instead of the long range. Because the se ridge isn't being a disaster I would have to think that we have a decent chance at a surprise event in the face of a crappy pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Well, in fairness, the "chance" of any snow/cold rain would be after Hr 180 and the Wunderground maps only go to 180. 180 hrs depicts the precip out of our area, but I would agree that at this range it constitutes a "threat" nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 180 hrs depicts the precip out of our area, but I would agree that at this range it constitutes a "threat" nonetheless Well, there is still snow on the backside of the 500 low across the Apps and west of them. I'd assume this precip (in rain or snow form) would translate/redevelop eastward as both the 500 low moves eastward and a potent surface low cranks offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Well, there is still snow on the backside of the 500 low across the Apps and west of them. I'd assume this precip (in rain or snow form) would translate/redevelop eastward as both the 500 low moves eastward and a potent surface low cranks offshore. certainly is our dream scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 certainly is our dream scenario 12z Euro says the dream is dead. Actually both the 12z Euro and GFS bring the closed low up until the Great Lakes now instead of sliding off the East Coast. I would still call that very subject to change since the path of the closed low has been radically changing run to run. 12z GFS Op looked crappy in the long range, but the ensemble mean actually looks pretty decent (and consistent) with a +PNA and east coast trough, although there is still no consistent -NAO and the AO is very positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z Euro says the dream is dead. Actually both the 12z Euro and GFS bring the closed low up until the Great Lakes now instead of sliding off the East Coast. I would still call that very subject to change since the path of the closed low has been radically changing run to run. 12z GFS Op looked crappy in the long range, but the ensemble mean actually looks pretty decent (and consistent) with a +PNA and east coast trough, although there is still no consistent -NAO and the AO is very positive. Although I'd love to see some snow soon, all is not lost. I always keep in my that except for a fluke 3" Thanksgiving weekend, 78/79 was pretty snowless until the end of JAN. Likewise, 86/87 only saw a trace until mid JAN, and both of those years ended with well above normal snow. Sometimes you just have to wait...and hope...and pray...and... There are probably more examples than those 2 I would imagine, but they come to mind first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I only look at 0z and 12z for lr stuff. Are the off runs equally good past 5-6 days? I know that no model is very good in the lr but I always thought the 6 and 18z gfs were particularly bad. I kinda laughed at the 12/3 trough and cold shot. IF it happened AND some 500 energy was rotating through then NC would get snow and we would shiver under blue skies. Why would you think that? Wouldn't initial conditions be LESS important with a longer lead time (if you're operating on the premise that the 06z/18z analyses are of degraded quality, which I also take exception to). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Why would you think that? Wouldn't initial conditions be LESS important with a longer lead time (if you're operating on the premise that the 06z/18z analyses are of degraded quality, which I also take exception to). I started following eastern and all the participating mets about 5 years ago. I've heard that off hour runs don't have as much data input at initialization as the 0z and 12z does. Because long range is so complicated and difficult to be accurate with, I think that less data at initialization greatly increases the chances of a less accurate solution past 5 days or so. Basically, I assumed that any error due to lack of data at initialization would be compounded more later in the run. That's really the only reason. I see your point though. I'm just an armchair guy so I really don't have much skill interpreting the "whys" of a solution and what is likely right and wrong except for the really obvious stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Let's not start jumping into the Anacostia River just yet my friends. It is only late November...be assured even DCA will record at least an inch of snow before December 21st 2011. Although the pattern may be "slower in progressing" than you like...patience is a virtue. "Stay snowy and thirsty my friends" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 No it's not but gives us shots a clippers. Without the ao or nao negative, we need a favorable pna pattern to get us cold enough to have a hope of snow. Of course, the 18Z gfs gives us snow at 264 hrs without a negative nao......I'd put the odds of that at .0001%. I'd put the odds at whatever they were before I looked at the 18z GFS 264hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 i only look at the 00z gfs and the 12z gfs unless the 6z gfs and 18z gfs show something better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 A comparison of error statistics for the 00, 06, 12, and 18 UT runs can be found here. http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Click on Longterm: GFS 4 cycles: Differences are pretty small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Let's not start jumping into the Anacostia River just yet my friends. It is only late November...be assured even DCA will record at least an inch of snow before December 21st 2011. Although the pattern may be "slower in progressing" than you like...patience is a virtue. "Stay snowy and thirsty my friends" Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I'd put the odds at whatever they were before I looked at the 18z GFS 264hrs. It's a different run. Yesterday's 18Z GFS had a storm at 264 hour, that supposed storm now would be at 240 hours so I'd stillput the odds for that storm at ridiculously low probabilities. I've got lots of doubt about the new 18Z GFS. The models do look like they are trending to a +PNA which is a good thing but until we get blocking, any chances for a decent snow are a long shot and during early dec despite our recent luck on Dec 5th, snow is not that common around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 It's relatively uncommon to get a +nao montly reading for the Sept-Nov timeframe. It's only happened 5 times in the last 60 years. 59,67,78,99,07. The first 3 all featured at least one month of the djf timeframe with a pretty strong -nao. 99 & 07 averaged positive all winter. I know -nao doesn't mean much in the summer but the monthly NAO index for JJA has been negative for 5 straight years and as a whole it has been negative much more often than positive since 2005. This blows away the 60's and there was a lot of blocking during that decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 It's relatively uncommon to get a +nao montly reading for the Sept-Nov timeframe. It's only happened 5 times in the last 60 years. 59,67,78,99,07. The first 3 all featured at least one month of the djf timeframe with a pretty strong -nao. 99 & 07 averaged positive all winter. I know -nao doesn't mean much in the summer but the monthly NAO index for JJA has been negative for 5 straight years and as a whole it has been negative much more often than positive since 2005. This blows away the 60's and there was a lot of blocking during that decade. meh, except for our one out of seven years good season, Mother Nature will always be able to find new ways to confound snow lovers in the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 meh, except for our one out of seven years good season, Mother Nature will always be able to find new ways to confound snow lovers in the MA heh, we are at quite a disadvantage at our latitude. Cold air is a problem the vast majority of times. Miller B's like to jump and strengthen just out of our reach. The apps crush our clippers. Too much blocking means that southern va and nc cash in. Overrunning seems to be a thing of the past. Miller a's usually have to take a pretty perfect track to not give us rain at some point. Dryslots can be a b!tch. 1" frontal passages are boring. did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 heh, we are at quite a disadvantage at our latitude. Cold air is a problem the vast majority of times. Miller B's like to jump and strengthen just out of our reach. The apps crush our clippers. Too much blocking means that southern va and nc cash in. Overrunning seems to be a thing of the past. Miller a's usually have to take a pretty perfect track to not give us rain at some point. Dryslots can be a b!tch. 1" frontal passages are boring. did I miss anything? When we do get a favorable extended cold pattern...it gets dry. Cold/dry warm/wet cold/dry warm/wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 heh, we are at quite a disadvantage at our latitude. Cold air is a problem the vast majority of times. Miller B's like to jump and strengthen just out of our reach. The apps crush our clippers. Too much blocking means that southern va and nc cash in. Overrunning seems to be a thing of the past. Miller a's usually have to take a pretty perfect track to not give us rain at some point. Dryslots can be a b!tch. 1" frontal passages are boring. did I miss anything? Last years doughnut hole was a rather appropriately shaped for a screw job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Since ji and Accuweather are both cancelling winter for the east, does that mean we hit the jackpot sometime this winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Since ji and Accuweather are both cancelling winter for the east, does that mean we hit the jackpot sometime this winter ? could you give me an Accuwx link to that, or are they just musings to cover their butts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Since ji and Accuweather are both cancelling winter for the east, does that mean we hit the jackpot sometime this winter ? Ji cancels winter no matter what anyone else says, this isn't anything new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Ji cancels winter no matter what anyone else says, this isn't anything new. He is even coming into our threads to cancel Winter despite the fact that it's a White Thanksgiving here. Happy Thanksgiving people!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 He is even coming into our threads to cancel Winter despite the fact that it's a White Thanksgiving here. Happy Thanksgiving people!!!! Hey, we don't want to hear about your white thanksgiving or any other snow day. Stay north man. Stay north. Just kiddin, enjoy the snow, big meal, good company, and afternoon nap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Euro and GFS are pretty different. Euro puts the trough back out west at the end of the run and the gfs likes the ridge west trough east. GFS looks ok I guess. Bunch of little impulses riding the NS. Most pass to our west but who know really knows where the trough axis sets up (assuming we even get a trough). CPC nao/ao forcast look less disappointing right now. Some indication of the ao and the nao going a little negative after Dec 1st. PNA looks like it's trying to go positive and stay that way for a while. Really no prospects of a decent event but the setup doesn't rule out a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving from the SE folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 interesting, and dare I say snowy runs at 0Z and 6Z on the GFS last night and the snow comes from post frontal snows, something I mentioned last week in this thread I believe at least there's something to track that sort of makes sense in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 interesting, and dare I say snowy runs at 0Z and 6Z on the GFS last night and the snow comes from post frontal snows, something I mentioned last week in this thread I believe at least there's something to track that sort of makes sense in this pattern Good luck with that. How many times do we get accumulating snow with a strung out 500 trough, no real low with the snow coming post frontal when there is not much support from the ensembles? I'm not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Good luck with that. How many times do we get accumulating snow with a strung out 500 trough, no real low with the snow coming post frontal when there is not much support from the ensembles? I'm not impressed. Way to piss in my wheaties after i am just getting over my hangover from the Ravens game last night. At least i now know not to spend the next week obsessing over every run which will not give us any snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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