2011 Winter Banter Thread

[Bob Chill]

I think the odds strongly favor Wes' forecast being correct. The larger scale pattern is clearly against us for now. We usually get winter in 2-3 shots each year with obvious breaks in between. The length of those shots varies quite a bit though. lol

If we don't see anything meaningful by this time next month then we are probably in a bit of trouble this winter. My wag is the first shot of winter this year happens in late Dec and will last 3-4 weeks tops so it better be good.

[Deck Pic]

I like the way Wes tries to break it to us lightly....it's gonna be tough for snow lovers in the MA during the 1st couple weeks in DEC

otoh, except for 02' and 09', it's been tough for snow lovers in the MA the first couple weeks of DEC for the last 15-20 years so no one should give up

we will still get a pattern change during the holidays this year, it's just that it's gonna be the Christmas/New Year's holidays and not Thanksgiving!

and 2003 and 2005 and 2007 and 2010

[mitchnick]

and 2003 and 2005 and 2007 and 2010

well, we certainly received snow those years, but with last year receiving 1.2" at BWI and 07 being the only snow of note, I was thinking more on the lines of early DEC heralding in a cold and snowy winter, which is why I mentioned 02' and 09

03' had more at BWI than I recalled, but then that winter hit a brick wall; 05' was crappy winter except for the 2/06 fluke

all in all, my point was more along the lines of Herb's, JAN & FEB are our months for decent snows and anything in early DEC almost constitutes a fluke in my tired, old book

[Deck Pic]

even if we get the vortex in the GOA to retrograde, it isn't necessarily a good pattern for us, but it is a necessary step.....But I think that speaks more to the fact that La NIna generally supports unfavorable patterns for snow/cold....

[mitchnick]

even if we get the vortex in the GOA to retrograde, it isn't necessarily a good pattern for us, but it is a necessary step.....But I think that speaks more to the fact that La NIna generally supports unfavorable patterns for snow/cold....

you forgot to add "south of 40N"!

[Deck Pic]

well, we certainly received snow those years, but with last year receiving 1.2" at BWI and 07 being the only snow of note, I was thinking more on the lines of early DEC heralding in a cold and snowy winter, which is why I mentioned 02' and 09

03' had more at BWI than I recalled, but then that winter hit a brick wall; 05' was crappy winter except for the 2/06 fluke

all in all, my point was more along the lines of Herb's, JAN & FEB are our months for decent snows and anything in early DEC almost constitutes a fluke in my tired, old book

that norm has changed recently a bit, though I agree maybe it is a short term anomaly....I think it is pretty unlikely we are getting a winter like 02, 09...or even close....I would gladly take an event like the ones on 12/5/03, 12/14/03, 12/5/05, 12/9/05, 12/5/07, 12/16/10.....they were all solid events....I won't cancel winter, but I would like to see a December event...even if 1-3" and DCA records 0.8"

[Deck Pic]

you forgot to add "south of 40N"!

well yeah...It is important, and this is why subforums are good sometimes, because if we get ridging over AK, it is likely to be a favorable pattern for New England even without blocking or a ridge in Western Canada, but still might suck for us

[mitchnick]

well yeah...It is important, and this is why subforums are good sometimes, because if we get ridging over AK, it is likely to be a favorable pattern for New England even without blocking or a ridge in Western Canada, but still might suck for us

yep

if my hair-brained theory that the E-QBO may save us this year is gonna' work, it better start dropping fast

my only fear with the theory was that the QBO wouldn't drop fast as it didn't in 91/92, just sort of got stuck

sadly, it looks like it may be stalling this year, or at least the fall is far weaker than all the decent snowy years, but we'll know if that is a stronger possibility/likelihood once the NOV number comes out the first week of DEC

[MN Transplant]

MD-DC-NOVA Fact of Life: We get most of our snow Jan-Feb.

Yep

Simple climo. Total snowfall by day. Blue is full record at DCA, Red is current location in the river only. Lines are 7 day moving average, but are not centered, so take note of that (adjust back by a few days).

Fun fact, there has not been accumulating snow at current DCA on 12/29 or 1/2, but there has every day in early March up to the 14th.

[Bob Chill]

yep

if my hair-brained theory that the E-QBO may save us this year is gonna' work, it better start dropping fast

my only fear with the theory was that the QBO wouldn't drop fast as it didn't in 91/92, just sort of got stuck

sadly, it looks like it may be stalling this year, or at least the fall is far weaker than all the decent snowy years, but we'll know if that is a stronger possibility/likelihood once the NOV number comes out the first week of DEC

The AK vortex / -pna does have me concerned to some extent. Just like what zwts said about it retrograding and we still have a crappy pattern down this far south. The vortex isn't the only thing causing us problems and the current setup could easily be the predominent one overall this winter.

Even with the -pna and crappy epo we aren't torching. We've actually bveen quite seasonal. That might not be the same case later on because of the change in wavelengths as we move into winter but I don't know much about that stuff to comment on.

The MA can be frustrating to say the least. Obviously much more can go wrong than right for us but at the end of the day we almost always get some snow and cold during the winter.

We all want the trifecta (-ao/nao and +pna) but this may prove to be harder to get this year than we kinda expected going in. I'm not a debbie downer or anything. I have some optismism about this winter for good reasons and not just looking through weenie glasses.

I usually try to ignore crappy patterns but I plan on paying close attention to this one. Especially the larger scale features.

[mitchnick]

The AK vortex / -pna does have me concerned to some extent. Just like what zwts said about it retrograding and we still have a crappy pattern down this far south. The vortex isn't the only thing causing us problems and the current setup could easily be the predominent one overall this winter.

Even with the -pna and crappy epo we aren't torching. We've actually bveen quite seasonal. That might not be the same case later on because of the change in wavelengths as we move into winter but I don't know much about that stuff to comment on.

The MA can be frustrating to say the least. Obviously much more can go wrong than right for us but at the end of the day we almost always get some snow and cold during the winter.

We all want the trifecta (-ao/nao and +pna) but this may prove to be harder to get this year than we kinda expected going in. I'm not a debbie downer or anything. I have some optismism about this winter for good reasons and not just looking through weenie glasses.

I usually try to ignore crappy patterns but I plan on paying close attention to this one. Especially the larger scale features.

I have to admit, seeing that d@mn high pressure move through the mid-section of the country then into the SE and off the coast is very reminiscent of 07/08

but, I still expect a change for the better by Christmas, give or tak, unlike 07/08

[mattie g]

"Ji getting ready to cancer winter again..."

[usedtobe]

even if we get the vortex in the GOA to retrograde, it isn't necessarily a good pattern for us, but it is a necessary step.....But I think that speaks more to the fact that La NIna generally supports unfavorable patterns for snow/cold....

No it's not but gives us shots a clippers. Without the ao or nao negative, we need a favorable pna pattern to get us cold enough to have a hope of snow. Of course, the 18Z gfs gives us snow at 264 hrs without a negative nao......I'd put the odds of that at .0001%.

[Ji]

No it's not but gives us shots a clippers. Without the ao or nao negative, we need a favorable pna pattern to get us cold enough to have a hope of snow. Of course, the 18Z gfs gives us snow at 264 hrs without a negative nao......I'd put the odds of that at .0001%.

kind of foolish odds...snow in early Dec not that uncommon...even a dusting

[mitchnick]

No it's not but gives us shots a clippers. Without the ao or nao negative, we need a favorable pna pattern to get us cold enough to have a hope of snow. Of course, the 18Z gfs gives us snow at 264 hrs without a negative nao......I'd put the odds of that at .0001%.

actually, looking at surface temps and thicknesses verbatim, most of it looks to falls as rain to these weenie eyes!

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies are still rather tough for the MA...heck even into SNE. Week 4 does offer some subtle height rises in the west and in the NATL, but looks very gradient like. It would be tough probably from NJ or NYC on south, and even we in SNE are on the edge.

Just hope that vortex backs up enough to pump up ridging in NW Canada. I think the NAO is gone until well into December at least, so you'll have to pin your hopes on that. You can tell on some of the op progs, that it is possible to get those events if it is times right, so it isn't a pipe dream....but overall, the pattern seems hostile over the MA for another 2-3 weeks.

[brad1551]

LRF is possible. The accuracy may not be 100%. I know that the winter forecast came out in my area awhile ago. The forecast differed just a little between all of them, but they were all in the same cenius. Calling for a cold winter -1 to -3 below avg. Now it is looking like the opposite . Let's just say even with above temps, you can still have a decent winter if you like Ice & slush. Lol. Not a hater really. This winter is going to play it's cards. So let's just go ahead and play them then. I still believe we will in the northern va will have average snow, it's just going to take longer then some of us thought. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone this week and God Bless everyone.

[usedtobe]

Weeklies are still rather tough for the MA...heck even into SNE. Week 4 does offer some subtle height rises in the west and in the NATL, but looks very gradient like. It would be tough probably from NJ or NYC on south, and even we in SNE are on the edge.

Just hope that vortex backs up enough to pump up ridging in NW Canada. I think the NAO is gone until well into December at least, so you'll have to pin your hopes on that. You can tell on some of the op progs, that it is possible to get those events if it is times right, so it isn't a pipe dream....but overall, the pattern seems hostile over the MA for another 2-3 weeks.

Thanks for the words about the weeklies. I pretty much agree with everything you're saying but I don't mind it staying relatively warm. I'll golf as long as the temps stay in the 40s during the day.

[Bob Chill]

Someone tell me why I shouldn't be interested in what the euro shows @ days 6-8. 500 closes off and tracks through TN and across the va tidewater. 850's around -4 or so? The only thing I don't see is a source for the cold air. Raleigh's site doesn't have surface temps so I don't know if it is a cold rain or white rain.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Someone tell me why I shouldn't be interested in what the euro shows @ days 6-8. 500 closes off and tracks through TN and across the va tidewater. 850's around -4 or so? The only thing I don't see is a source for the cold air. Raleigh's site doesn't have surface temps so I don't know if it is a cold rain or white rain.

Because winter is over. Yes, I know, it was brief. Maybe we'll do better next year.

I like the fact that we are seeing some change in the models. Even if it isn't ideal as alluded to by our pros, at least it is something with a different look.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

[Bob Chill]

Because winter is over. Yes, I know, it was brief. Maybe we'll do better next year.

I like the fact that we are seeing some change in the models. Even if it isn't ideal as alluded to by our pros, at least it is something with a different look.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

There are some relatviely significant changes in the lr. Most importantly, the -pna is breaking down and going neutral to pos neutral. Stupid dumb vortex in AK just won't pull anchor though.

It's nice ridging popping up around the wc and intermountain. If the nao/ao aren't going to work in our favor then the pna has to save us. Any energy that can track to our S is worth watching. Always going to be marginal on temps but what else is new. At least we're not tracking a big se ridge.......yet.

[WxUSAF]

Someone tell me why I shouldn't be interested in what the euro shows @ days 6-8. 500 closes off and tracks through TN and across the va tidewater. 850's around -4 or so? The only thing I don't see is a source for the cold air. Raleigh's site doesn't have surface temps so I don't know if it is a cold rain or white rain.

6z GFS does something similar, but does it later in the run, more like days 9-10. GFS is way to warm for snow (at 850 and surface) when it moves through, but there's also not much precip associated with it. GFS and Euro are still handling this big Midwest closed low signficantly differently, even though the Euro has come around to the idea of one being there at all.

Hey, worth keeping an eye on since there's nothing else going on.

Also, several GFS runs in a row (at least the ones that I've seen) also bring a piece of the PV into Canada in the far long range, but there's still not a big mechanism to drop the cold air into the CONUS.

[mitchnick]

Someone tell me why I shouldn't be interested in what the euro shows @ days 6-8. 500 closes off and tracks through TN and across the va tidewater. 850's around -4 or so? The only thing I don't see is a source for the cold air. Raleigh's site doesn't have surface temps so I don't know if it is a cold rain or white rain.

because the Wunderground Euro maps show all snow to be over and west of the mts?

[Bob Chill]

6z GFS does something similar, but does it later in the run, more like days 9-10. GFS is way to warm for snow (at 850 and surface) when it moves through, but there's also not much precip associated with it. GFS and Euro are still handling this big Midwest closed low signficantly differently, even though the Euro has come around to the idea of one being there at all.

Hey, worth keeping an eye on since there's nothing else going on.

Also, several GFS runs in a row (at least the ones that I've seen) also bring a piece of the PV into Canada in the far long range, but there's still not a big mechanism to drop the cold air into the CONUS.

Yea, i looked at the gfs and saw the less interesting solution but decided to immediately discount it because the euro looked much better. Jokes aside, the are some interesting looks in the lr. I kinda liked seeing the big vortex spinning around in eastern canada. Amp up the ridge in the west a little bit and that should bring in the colder air. Not really "cold" air but cold enough to make things interesting if anything feels like riding the ns out of canada around the base.

The end of the run in fantasyland cranks up the the low in the goa and screws everything up again. Hard to argue against that happening even in la la land.

because the Wunderground Euro maps show all snow to be over and west of the mts?

Did Ji hack your account? I though I knew you man!

[WxUSAF]

because the Wunderground Euro maps show all snow to be over and west of the mts?

Well, in fairness, the "chance" of any snow/cold rain would be after Hr 180 and the Wunderground maps only go to 180.

[WxUSAF]

The end of the run in fantasyland cranks up the the low in the goa and screws everything up again. Hard to argue against that happening even in la la land.

0z GFS does that, but 6z doesn't. 6z keeps ridging in AK through the last several days of the run. 0z GFS is drool-worthy on December 3rd if you like cold weather.

[WxUSAF]

If you're bored and want to get drunk...lurk in the NE subforum and take a drink everytime someone posts the word "torch". You'll be sh!tfaced drunk on the floor within minutes.

[Bob Chill]

0z GFS does that, but 6z doesn't. 6z keeps ridging in AK through the last several days of the run. 0z GFS is drool-worthy on December 3rd if you like cold weather.

I only look at 0z and 12z for lr stuff. Are the off runs equally good past 5-6 days?

I know that no model is very good in the lr but I always thought the 6 and 18z gfs were particularly bad.

I kinda laughed at the 12/3 trough and cold shot. IF it happened AND some 500 energy was rotating through then NC would get snow and we would shiver under blue skies.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

If you're bored and want to get drunk...lurk in the NE subforum and take a drink everytime someone posts the word "torch". You'll be sh!tfaced drunk on the floor within minutes.

I did pass this car the other week

[Deck Pic]

1321920080[/url]' post='1134909']

No it's not but gives us shots a clippers. Without the ao or nao negative, we need a favorable pna pattern to get us cold enough to have a hope of snow. Of course, the 18Z gfs gives us snow at 264 hrs without a negative nao......I'd put the odds of that at .0001%.

I think that is what happened in Dec 2007. We got the vortex out of the gulf and got a brief PNA spike which gave us a decent clipper even with a + NAO. The rest of the month the EPO was no help with a -PNA and no blocking. New England was getting KU'ed what seemed like every other day while we were in the 50s. Maybe we can get a decent setup later in the month. Until then I would assume even when we get brief transient cold shots, any moisture flow will be to our north and west.