Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 3:28 PM, Ji said: the 6z GFS was the best Run i have seen this winter and would truley signal a pattern change. We havent seen 1060 Highs drop down into the west all winter...even Wes would be excited if this verified lol he'd tell you there was no blocking and the trough would come and go but that's just my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 3:30 PM, Ellinwood said: Ji is hugging anything that brings winter to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 That panel of the GFS is smiling at us......unfortunately it's a sadistic smile...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 +AO +NAO +EPO +WPO -PDO and MJO phases 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 3:48 PM, Ellinwood said: +AO +NAO +EPO +WPO -PDO and MJO phases 4-6 Well that sounds like a BECS, if you asked me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 3:56 PM, Quasievil said: Wow... now we're just getting excited about cold air. Man this winter sucks monkey balls. When you're starving, you get excited over a saltine. When you're thirsty, you get excited over water. When you're sweating and tracking severe weather on the winter solstice, you get excited over cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 You all might as well just embrace the torch and be done with it. It will make the missing cold and snow more tolerable to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 4:22 AM, Ian said: WxUSAF but he's closer to you than wes when it comes to snow talk. Damn right On 12/22/2011 at 4:25 AM, Ji said: He isnt a full time met I don't think. Nope, not even part time unless Mars counts. Haven't been paid to forecast in over 2 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 3:48 PM, Ellinwood said: +AO +NAO +EPO +WPO -PDO and MJO phases 4-6 that all adds up to nothing, correct?? what phase of the mjo brings colder weather and the possibility of snow?? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 4:06 PM, mapgirl said: You all might as well just embrace the torch and be done with it. It will make the missing cold and snow more tolerable to deal with. have to agree with you plus the heating bill this month was the lowest its been in a long time. I can't afford a high bill and do anything because I,m retired and on a very limited income. For older folks this weather is really good. I keep hearing older people say how great it is that its warm and not cold. Oh well . Its all relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 5:29 PM, mdsnowlover said: that all adds up to nothing, correct?? what phase of the mjo brings colder weather and the possibility of snow?? thanks http://www.cpc.ncep....es/Temperature/ Center the 3-month tendencies over the current month (for December you want to use NDJ) December is Phases 7, 8, 1 and kind of 2 for colder East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS mjo forecast is trying to push it to phase 7-8 during by the end of the first week of Jan. It's weak but at least it isn't stuck in the COD. GEFS pushes it back into the COD before leaving phase 5 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 5:45 PM, Bob Chill said: GFS mjo forecast is trying to push it to phase 7-8 during by the end of the first week of Jan. It's weak but at least it isn't stuck in the COD. GEFS pushes it back into the COD before leaving phase 5 though. and while the GFS is doing that, the CFS is painting AN temps over the central US the likes of which I've never seen on any of its previous forecast maps for locations so close to us during the winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 5:48 PM, mitchnick said: and while the GFS is doing that, the CFS is painting AN temps over the central US the likes of which I've never seen on any of its previous forecast maps for locations so close to us during the winter http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif question becomes how accurrate is this model and if so , wow, no winter at all. Hard to envision that, but maybe this is the year for no winter or snow. I,m 64 and can remember a couple of very warm winters , but that is limited to 1 or two, at the most. And most did not go the entire winter. Oh well, nothing you can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 You know it's a crappy pattern when even SNE can't pull out a snow event. Euro/NAM/GFS just pulled the rug out from under them for the Dec 23 "event". The inevitable northwest trend is a killer. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 5:34 PM, Ellinwood said: http://www.cpc.ncep....es/Temperature/ Center the 3-month tendencies over the current month (for December you want to use NDJ) December is Phases 7, 8, 1 and kind of 2 for colder East Coast. You went HAM on J Berk.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 5:48 PM, mitchnick said: and while the GFS is doing that, the CFS is painting AN temps over the central US the likes of which I've never seen on any of its previous forecast maps for locations so close to us during the winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif Wow. Those are some warm maps. Of course I'm praying it doesn't happen but I fear 88-89 analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 5:48 PM, mitchnick said: and while the GFS is doing that, the CFS is painting AN temps over the central US the likes of which I've never seen on any of its previous forecast maps for locations so close to us during the winter http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif Glass half-full comment: at least the AN temps go away in May and June. Maybe we won't see our third-consecutive epic summer furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This month is no better than December 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 7:16 PM, Fozz said: This month is no better than December 2006. worse maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 6:29 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: You went HAM on J Berk.....lol let's do a snow dance till it snows. i dream of snow!!1! it's going to come because we want it to really badly.. really really badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 3:33 PM, mapgirl said: Ji is hugging anything that brings winter to us It's not just Ji. It's a lot of people doing the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 7:28 PM, Ian said: let's do a snow dance till it snows. i dream of snow!!1! it's going to come because we want it to really badly.. really really badly. Whats the point of having a fan page if you can take people disagreeing with you or pointing out constructive criticism, he said himself hes one track minded this time of year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 7:35 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Whats the point of having a fan page if you can take people disagreeing with you or pointing out constructive criticism, he said himself hes one track minded this time of year.... $$$ and/or popularity with the layman. It doesn't help that I disrespected him, but it is a rather convenient way to get him to notice the post and respond to it. Even after that, I can't respect a meteorologist who completely turns a blind eye to objectivity to wishcast... meteorologists aren't the ones who should be wishcasting. It's degrading to the profession (EDIT: in that it makes me embarrassed with myself and the forecasting community at large to have a colleague speak misinformation to the public). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 6:16 PM, mdsnowlover said: question becomes how accurrate is this model and if so , wow, no winter at all. Hard to envision that, but maybe this is the year for no winter or snow. I,m 64 and can remember a couple of very warm winters , but that is limited to 1 or two, at the most. And most did not go the entire winter. Oh well, nothing you can do about it. past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but it has been a torch now for the east for months, sooooooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 8:03 PM, mitchnick said: past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but it has been a torch now for the east for months, sooooooo... To put it another way... persistence >> long range noise on the models a good majority of the time. In this case, there's no reason not to go with persistence, keeping the warmth in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Mark pissing on pro mets facebook pages, geesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 8:12 PM, Ellinwood said: To put it another way... persistence >> long range noise on the models a good majority of the time. In this case, there's no reason not to go with persistence, keeping the warmth in the East. I would tend to agree but then again...if persistence was the main rule it would just stay warm for eternity. I've always favored patterns ending with a rubber band effect of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 8:18 PM, Kmlwx said: I would tend to agree but then again...if persistence was the main rule it would just stay warm for eternity. I've always favored patterns ending with a rubber band effect of sorts. Emphasis on *majority of the time* It obviously isn't true all of the time, but when we're in a solid warm pattern and there's no strong indication of it changing other than fantasy-range modelling, persistence is going to win out for the accurately-foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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