BristowWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 1:41 AM, Eagle Man said: What does SSW stand for? Thanks Sudden Stratospheric Warming....the winds of the polar vortex switch directions I think...can be a game changer and this year we could use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 1:46 AM, BristowWX said: Sudden Stratospheric Warming....the winds of the polar vortex switch directions I think...can be a game changer and this year we could use it Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I like the way this guy thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 2:11 AM, mitchnick said: I like the way this guy thinks Thanks...gives some hope....it would be great to check the models in Xmas eve and see an arctic front stalls to our south with overrunning that lasts for a couple days...just wishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Almost an overunning event this weekend on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 has anyone sounded the ji alarm yet? surprised there isnt a weekend secs thread yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 GFS comes through with a nugget of hope. As weak as it may be, the wave is there and might be just enough to put some white stuff in the air this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 for 5 days out it's not that good even for a cold rain.. i mean it only needs half a whiff to go bad already. the 500 vort is kinda meh and not a great pass--interesting to see if it continues and then also if that vort ends up a little more robust, the overall 500 pattern is super ugly. i guess at least there's a high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'm huggin the great New Year's Eve Storm of 2011 on the 384-hour GFS. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'm watching the weekend low with passion now. It has been showing up continuously on the ensembles. Anything after this weekend looks meh so I'm hoping something materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 5:47 AM, zwyts said: we've seen these setups a number of times the last few Ninas and they don't work out....there is never any moisture in the cold sector.... Probably, it's always too good to be true down here in the sub-tropics. Awaiting stronger model support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 0z GFS Ensemble mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 For what it's worth the 00Z Euro ensemble followed the 12Z with showing a pretty strong signal on height rises for Western Canada into Alaska for the 7 to 10 day period. 00Z GFS ensemble while a weaker signal is also showing hints of this as well. The GFS also looks as if it wants to build heights into Greenland though this seems somewhat transitory in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 5:47 AM, zwyts said: we've seen these setups a number of times the last few Ninas and they don't work out....there is never any moisture in the cold sector.... I would have to agree with this. Even if it does pan out it would be flurries. The 6Z GFS agrees with you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 1:22 PM, Ji said: Wxtrix got banned from OT. Totally disagree with that but it's kind of funny. She is now just a weather poster. First time I've laughted this terrible winter LOL...has she been banned / susp. before? Funny I just made a little stink about it in a different thread.Yeah...that zero line is exciting to see, but I've learned my lessen about trusting it. I'm getting an itch to see snow bad though...so my weenism will be hard to restrain. I did like that CWG was posting already about the White Christmas chances by statistics and such. I think I RT'd one of their tweets. If not, I likely will. Kinda hate how everyone always asks about it. I also hate how everyone (well everyone as in the gen. public) always has these phantom memories of many white Christmases (and other Dec. Holidays). At least the cold today was enjoyable. In Alexandria it was great when the sun was shining on ya. Reminded me a little of Denver (cold but sunny). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Looks like the AO will be weakening toward neutral over the next week. First positive thing I've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 12:24 AM, kurtstack said: Looks like the AO will be weakening toward neutral over the next week. First positive thing I've seen so far. a related positive thing is that the 10 and 14 days forecasts have been too high recently it wasn't too long ago that they were too low http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 supposedly the 18z GFS does some "nice things" over siberia in the longer range, PV gets knocked up but holds firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/12/2011 at 7:34 PM, Ji said: are we getting a Nino next winter? nope, strong nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Most of what I have heard from the pros on this site as well as elsewhere are of the opinion that SSW can not be predicted. That being said I found an interesting paper from 2009 that seems to suggest that blocking in the troposphere actually can be a precursor to a SSW and with different blocking locations will result in either a PV split or a PV displacement. I was wondering if any of the pro-mets had seen this article and/or had an opinion of any validity to it's assertions. http://www.columbia....es-GRL-2009.pdf Edit: Meant to put this in the main forum on SSW's thread. Mods feel free to trash this if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 1:41 AM, BethesdaWX said: nope, strong nina Do you have anything to back up said statement other than you pulled it out of your ass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm not enthused about the potential upcoming +PNA. It may give us a brief shot of something interesting but the ridge will most likely break down as the deep lp around AK starts banging into it.....again. It's possible that the ridge out west can hold firm and things can evolve to a better setup in the atl but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 1:41 AM, BethesdaWX said: nope, strong nina Strong 3rd year Nina. Oof. 75/76 - 2.2" at DCA and the warmest Feb on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 3:32 PM, MN Transplant said: Strong 3rd year Nina. Oof. 75/76 - 2.2" at DCA and the warmest Feb on record. 97-98, even though it was a strong Nino, was ridiculous. 70s and I believe 80s in January? I think we had like half an inch of snoe that winter and the day we got the snow we got the day off for a snow day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I don't pay close attention to this, but I believe most people are forecasting the Nina to weaken to near neutral, maybe cold-neutral for next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 3:38 PM, WxUSAF said: I don't pay close attention to this, but I believe most people are forecasting the Nina to weaken to near neutral, maybe cold-neutral for next year? Bethesda has his own forecasting method that he continuously claims would be met with great derision by the board. Thus, he keeps them restricted to his family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 we're gonna' have to wait until JAN, like it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 5:04 PM, mitchnick said: we're gonna' have to wait until JAN, like it or not Maybe for a pattern change, but I don't think I agree about chances for winter precip. Maybe nothing big, but I think there's opportunity for a little fun here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phils1 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 There is certainly growing support for a change in the polar vortex situation (ie stratospheric warming) over the next week or so which could lead to considerably colder weather in the US later this month. In fact, several models support this notion of a pattern flip in about 10 days or so including the GFS, CMC and NOGAPS which are all detailed in the latest video at The SI Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 zwts, I just posted in the other thread. Did you catch the -nao at the end of the run? Are the models starting to sniff something out? Fantasyland GFS looking a good bit different that what we have been seeing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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