CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I would not take that bet right now, I have the same thought, Euro was well west a few day ago then went east, The GFS went from no storm to a storm to just east of the BM in the last 2 days and the Euro is trending back, It really is starting to look like a whiff might be off the table Yeah I mean for this run coming up. Just my gut. Who knows..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Gfs absolutely nailed this storm back on Oct 15th, had the correct day, the correct storm track and snow amounts off twister that day are almost exactly spot on to todays, pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Snow breaks out early/mid afternoon Saturday..trees start coming down by say 4-5:00pm..by midnight every household in SNE is w/o power. that's about how things should break down Scooter says dry snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Gfs absolutely nailed this storm back on Oct 15th, had the correct day, the correct storm track and snow amounts off twister that day are almost exactly spot on to todays, pretty incredible. yeah, the blind squirrel finds the nut... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah I mean for this run coming up. Just my gut. Who knows..lol. violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Scooter says dry snow for you I mean if the GFS were right..it would transition to a drier snow..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yeah, the blind squirrel finds the nut... And the euro had a bagfull of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Tip has either finally tied the noose, or is constructing a rather juicy diatribe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I feel like drinking...is that wrong . . . I'll meet you out in Worcester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And the euro had a bagfull of them Euro is far superior overall, just mentioning how incredible it is that goofus got this almost exactly right back on Oct 15th, thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Tip has either finally tied the noose, or is constructing a rather juicy diatribe 200 words over or under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 just back from lunch.. NICE!!! great start to 2011-2012 so far.. buried pumpkins all over town!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro is far superior overall, just mentioning how incredible it is that goofus got this almost exactly right back on Oct 15th, thats all. Agree, It has to be right at least sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I wonder if this storm will end up looking like the euro from a few days ago. This is what I am thinking as well... After all is said and done and we've bled our consternation all week, it would almost seem typical if the 48 hour-out guidance - say by 12z tomorrow morning - have all collapsed toward the original appeal of 3 days ago when the unraveling started. Isn't there always a modeling "black out" period? It seems more times than not when something interesting is sniffed out at extended leads, we have to go through this disappearing act, only to have it come on a-roarin' back... Only the legends stay put. April 1997, March 1993, ...Hell, February 1978 for that matter... even January 1996 ... seemed these got into the runs early and locked. Funny, this would probably be a run-o-the-mill snowy noreaster in February, but since it is October ...if verifies the way it seems to be heading the irony is that it would become legendary in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 considering the kicker, blocking, and vortex over the maritimes, this system can only go so far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 that is pretty nuts that the lower res gfs ensemble is relatively significantly more amped up and northwest of the operational at the 60 to 72 hour range. Normally it would be a bit SE of the operational all things being equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 6" of paste for me and 1' for Will. hey, I hope you dont mind me asking b/c I know you know NE mass climo really well but .. how would you compare marginal snow events like today, or for ex., an elevation event, between your location and Lowell? Im guessing its a tick cooler here, but you probably know the nuisances of the local climo . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 considering the kicker, blocking, and vortex over the maritimes, this system can only go so far west The question is how far is so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 . . . I'll meet you out in Worcester. "Like" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Can you imagine the comical coupe if the NAM actually ended up the winner... hahaha. Oh man, can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 that is pretty nuts that the lower res gfs ensemble is relatively significantly more amped up and northwest of the operational at the 60 to 72 hour range. Normally it would be a bit SE of the operational all things being equal. Flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Man, I'm visiting WSI in Andover on Saturday with my MET class...damn it'll be a tough drive back to NE VT...hope it ticks back west and gives us some love too! What do you think the chances of that are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I feel like drinking...is that wrong LOl yea me too. deja La Epic, I swear I have seen this entire thread from last years Jan 12th storm, including all the players concerns. Amazing. Too bad its Oct but even for Oct its very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It is possible to get "drier" snow this time of year...everything just has to go right. While Buffalo started at 6:1 during the afternoon of October 12th in 06, they ended up finishing off around 12:1 in the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 considering the kicker, blocking, and vortex over the maritimes, this system can only go so far west I'm not looking for much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 hey, I hope you dont mind me asking b/c I know you know NE mass climo really well but .. how would you compare marginal snow events like today, or for ex., an elevation event, between your location and Lowell? Im guessing its a tick cooler here, but you probably know the nuisances of the local climo . Negligible.....where the disparity btween my area and Lowell shines is with respect to marine intrusion. Any other advantage Lowell has is negated by its location within the armpit of the Merrimack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Don't see any bad ones in that group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 that is pretty nuts that the lower res gfs ensemble is relatively significantly more amped up and northwest of the operational at the 60 to 72 hour range. Normally it would be a bit SE of the operational all things being equal. Yeah i'm in an on-goign email correspondence with a Met off line trying to figure that one out here. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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