OKpowdah Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 damn it. went to google images and typed in unstable thundersnow soundings and got something that was somewhat similar This is one of my favorite examples of convective instability in the winter. There's a warm layer, so obviously not looking at snow, but sleet (I got thunder-sleet WITH HAIL. There were distinctly ice pellets and then hail stones). The warm layer is saturated, followed by steep lapse rates, and a little bit of drier air aloft too. Also very strong WAA in the low levels helps forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lundberg chucks The GFS has been trending the way of the very steady European. That's hard to deny at this point. My gut feeling remains the same - along the I95 corridor, this is a cold, nasty rain storm with wind, with maybe some wet snow flakes mixing in toward the end. The area of greatest concern is from northern Virginia to northern and western New Jersey, the higher ground over southeastern Pennsylvania, and up to the hills of Connecticut into central Massachusetts. There we will probably see snow, and the potential for 6 inches or more near 1000 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Snow breaks out early/mid afternoon Saturday..trees start coming down by say 4-5:00pm..by midnight every household in SNE is w/o power. that's about how things should break down I'll take the other side of that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah this could get interesting. The news showed trees down in Denver from 4" yesterday. 8" would be an issue. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Storm_%22Aphid%22 As many as 90 percent of the city's trees were estimated to be damaged,[22][23] including many in the city's cherished parks and parkways, which were designed by landscape architect Frederick Law Olmsted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://en.wikipedia....orm_%22Aphid%22 As many as 90 percent of the city's trees were estimated to be damaged,[22][23] including many in the city's cherished parks and parkways, which were designed by landscape architect Frederick Law Olmsted. Hopefully 100% of ours are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thanks for posting, Sam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yeah, I guess you're right... Can't get too bummed in October if you miss out. Just remember it during the inevitable storm when many areas are sleet or rain and the Berks and Greens are in a upslope aided deformation zone or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'll take the other side of that bet. I would too if I lived in a place which probably averages 20" of snow a year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hopefully 100% of ours are Dude I'm dying with laughter from your posts...you gotta stop lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lundberg chucks The GFS has been trending the way of the very steady European. That's hard to deny at this point. My gut feeling remains the same - along the I95 corridor, this is a cold, nasty rain storm with wind, with maybe some wet snow flakes mixing in toward the end. The area of greatest concern is from northern Virginia to northern and western New Jersey, the higher ground over southeastern Pennsylvania, and up to the hills of Connecticut into central Massachusetts. There we will probably see snow, and the potential for 6 inches or more near 1000 feet In for a wild scene on Sat / Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I would too if I lived in a place which probably averages 20" of snow a year.. He did say 100% of SNE, and Irene couldn't take my power away, so neither will this. Plus the highest population densities are along the I-95 corridor where the precipitation is less likely to be snow, and less likely to pile up damaging accumulations. It's a sucker's bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 How would a strong easterly flow off the warm ocean play into this? I have no idea on climo down there but something like this has to have strong E or NE winds right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://en.wikipedia....orm_%22Aphid%22 As many as 90 percent of the city's trees were estimated to be damaged,[22][23] including many in the city's cherished parks and parkways, which were designed by landscape architect Frederick Law Olmsted. Have you permanently left Blackstone?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On to the Ensembles....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 we'll have a sub 1000 mb low off the delmarva saturday morning and the nam will still show a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Don't forget the shawl, amigo ... gonna be chilly at the Pit. LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You know it's odd in October when there is a good shot at flakes for a lot of areas in the next 12 hours...and that tread hasn't had a post in over a half hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Have you permanently left Blackstone?? yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hopefully this means nothing but there have been 3 Octobers where BDL has received 0.1'' of snow or more...all the winters blew...except one was slightly below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 wbzweather WBZ Boston Weather Models still disagree on Saturday storm, 50-50 potential of a quick nor'easter type storm, 1pm-1am...rain/snow/wind/coastal c... - @TerryWBZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 for people that dont like snow i dont think they are going to be happy with them from wwlp.com Still tracking a passing storm system on Saturday. Luckily, this storm will stay far enough offshore that we (in western Mass) will stay dry - just seeing partly sunny skies with highs in the middle-40s. SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Still cool. Highs: 42-46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I so can't wait until the 12z bufkit comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hopefully this means nothing but there have been 3 Octobers where BDL has received 0.1'' of snow or more...all the winters blew...except one was slightly below average. Yeah it's the same in Albany. Oct snow = kiss of death? It'd take my chances if I were you haha. Snow in Oct is cool because you might go like 5 weeks after before you see it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 for people that dont like snow i dont think they are going to be happy with them from wwlp.com Still tracking a passing storm system on Saturday. Luckily, this storm will stay far enough offshore that we (in western Mass) will stay dry - just seeing partly sunny skies with highs in the middle-40s. SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Still cool. Highs: 42-46 rip and read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS ensembles right over the BM. Warmer a bit as well. Fear not western folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah it's the same in Albany. Oct snow = kiss of death? It'd take my chances if I were you haha. Snow in Oct is cool because you might go like 5 weeks after before you see it again. I just posted that for haha's...only 3 years of data is crap anyways. I'll definitely take this...a day after my birthday too And I'm be in S. VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lundberg chucks The GFS has been trending the way of the very steady European. That's hard to deny at this point. My gut feeling remains the same - along the I95 corridor, this is a cold, nasty rain storm with wind, with maybe some wet snow flakes mixing in toward the end. How far west is considered part of the corridor? I'm about 30 miles west of 95. I know it's probably a moving target depending on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS ensembles right over the BM. Warmer a bit as well. Fear not western folks. Northern folks want the love, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like the GFS ensembles are west of the op, Low tracks right over or just inside the benchmark.. Eh i was a page behind, Scott already gave the skinny on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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