weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That they got a lot of snow? Just a guess... True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I declare this "Thumpin' the pumpkin 2011" Mods please change the title. Well deserved honor to name the thread after that GYX discussion. I kept waiting for your shift.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 FWIW and just throwing this out there as something to see....here is a blend of the NAM-GFS-ECMWF snow. If I hear anyone else complain about the universe engineering ways to screw them at least excuse possible I am going to post that snow map LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Mods please change the title. Well deserved honor to name the thread after that GYX discussion. I kept waiting for your shift.... Perhaps that will be the title when Bob starts up Part II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Mods please change the title. Well deserved honor to name the thread after that GYX discussion. I kept waiting for your shift.... Actually...he should start a new thread with that title...about time for one anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just took a gander at the watch wording between PHI, OKX, BOX, and GYX. Kind of interesting how conservatively BOX is playing it. PHI and OKX are throwing out 6-10" amounts. GYX and is going 6" or more BOX is going with this: THIS WATCH IS BASED ON IMPACT...AS IT IS THE FIRST POTENTIAL WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON...AND EARLIER THAN MOST WINTER STORMS OF THIS TYPE. A MIX OF WET AND SNOWY WEATHER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE... Obviusly something that can be tweaked upward. But I'm surprised their using "impact" due to it being the first storm rather than the fact that seeingly all the the models are giving warning criteria snows for much/most of the CWA. Are they that concerned that this could be elevation driven to use those totals in the watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Given the extreme amount of baroclinicity and an absolutely remarkable amount of frotogenesis plus available moisture I think we're going to see some funky things with convection trying to throw off the models. That is the most interesting thing about this storm to me. How often do you have this sort of baroclinic interaction (is that a legal phrase?). This is like the dynamics we see in big noreasters in deep winter over the gulf stream. Convection city. The possibilities are exciting...wish I was closer to the coast. If last night gave thundersnow just imagine Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 lol...channel 7 map...no snow for Pete or Mike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think I'd go 5-9" first call for here....gives me a chance to raise up if models hold/ come in colder, or down if models come in west and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That is the most interesting thing about this storm to me. How often do you have this sort of baroclinic interaction (is that a legal phrase?). This is like the dynamics we see in big noreasters in deep winter over the gulf stream. Convection city. The possibilities are exciting...wish I was closer to the coast. If last night gave thundersnow just imagine Saturday night. I think someone will see thunder. Either TSRA or TSSN. The thing that might be tricky, is that with so much vertical motion in areas, we might have to look out for weird dryslots or subsidence zones. I don't know if it will happen...but it's possible with the amount of forcing involved. Hence the possibility of a second QPF max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Id love 4" at BWI.... that whdh map is lazy and disgraceful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ok ... well, I just got sprung. Thanks for sharing! I'm personally thinking 3-6" for my 'hood, as of now. 4.2" to be exact. going with 5-10 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man I wish I hadn't closed up the camp in CT a couple weeks ago. That place at 800ft in North Woodstock just a few miles from Bigelo Hollow in Union...the camp is going to get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 lol...channel 7 map...no snow for Pete or Mike? I always love the paint by numbers looking maps like that. For instance, will places like extreme coastal fairfield county get 3-6? And then there's the ever-so-logical invisible wall of snow/no snow line cutting across the berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think someone will see thunder. Either TSRA or TSSN. The thing that might be tricky, is that with so much vertical motion in areas, we might have to look out for weird dryslots or subsidence zones. I don't know if it will happen...but it's possible with the amount of forcing involved. Hence the possibility of a second QPF max. Someone will havw insane dynamics and just get destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man I wish I hadn't closed up the camp in CT a couple weeks ago. That place at 800ft in North Woodstock just a few miles from Bigelo Hollow in Union...the camp is going to get destroyed. I work about 10 minutes from there. Throw me the keys and I'll check on it for you. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 lol...channel 7 map...no snow for Pete or Mike? That is more Eeyore-esque than anything in my wildest nigihtmares. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think someone will see thunder. Either TSRA or TSSN. The thing that might be tricky, is that with so much vertical motion in areas, we might have to look out for weird dryslots or subsidence zones. I don't know if it will happen...but it's possible with the amount of forcing involved. Hence the possibility of a second QPF max. well there will be some surprises. be interesting to me to see how much qpf gets wasted on the front end. probably more in sne than up here, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 going with 5-10 here. Took me over an hour to go thru last nights models and reading thru 30 pages here, I am going to start at 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man I wish I hadn't closed up the camp in CT a couple weeks ago. That place at 800ft in North Woodstock just a few miles from Bigelo Hollow in Union...the camp is going to get destroyed. Thats right up the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Took me over an hour to go thru last nights models and reading thru 30 pages here, I am going to start at 4-8" here.. lol ... I get up earlier just to do that. Woke up at 4:07 and said, welp, what happened at 12z? We've entered the Low Work Productivity season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ju ju Bob is going to need to start a new thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 well there will be some surprises. be interesting to me to see how much qpf gets wasted on the front end. probably more in sne than up here, but we'll see. That's a good point and will play into totals obviously. I'm happy to see that the call for western Franklin is for "snow likely with a chance of rain in the afternoon". So, I guess they have the odds of have a snow-start or at least minimal rain involvment. Albany's AFD is a very good read--I expect they will expand their watches this afternoon. Of note, they have this little tidbit: "WILL TILT MORE TWRD THE GFS AS THE 00UTC ECMWF JOINED THAT CAMP". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Def some good instability in BUFKIT on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Got a new thread up and running gang. Time to sift back through this thread from the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 lol...channel 7 map...no snow for Pete or Mike? an underforecast that goes against several runs of the NAM and Euro... i wonder if they are factoring in marine influence more than we are considering, or if they are simply hedging given the western insistence of the GFS/SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thats right up the road. Yeah it's like a mile south of the Mass border if you walk through the woods haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm not so sure this storms stays it's track. I'd watch for a shift of the precip towards the north at the very least. The last little even came in wetter and further north. Given that this storm was out to sea like a day ago, I'd not count out that NW trend continuing. Esp if the 500mb trough gets steeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 lol ... I get up earlier just to do that. Woke up at 4:07 and said, welp, what happened at 12z? We've entered the Low Work Productivity season. I won't get much done besides payroll today at work, I will sit back and do this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Took me over an hour to go thru last nights models and reading thru 30 pages here, I am going to start at 4-8". makes sense for your location...I debated 6-10 but have to leave open the possibility of lower amounts for a myriad of reasons. Starting 5-10, eager to go 8-12 (I am at 60%+ for 8+) if the models support it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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