JYarsh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6z GFS is definitely warm.... For some reason I can't seem to access it through NCEP. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 And as soon as you make that call, here comes the beginning of the end... 6z GFS is definitely warm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What a read. People will be going nuts. My wife is so mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 And as soon as you make that call, here comes the beginning of the end... you gotta stop with the weenie posts and weenie tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What a read. People will be going nuts. My wife is so mad Why? Because you will be paying absolutely no attention to her over the next 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Haha sorry. I don't have much to contribute except excitement. =\ you gotta stop with the weenie posts and weenie tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I declare this "Thumpin' the pumpkin 2011" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6z GFS is definitely warm.... But still snow for HVN and HFD once we get rid of the boundary layer warmth. I think there may be some convective feedback on the 6z GFS tugging this thing a bit closer to the coast. It has a NAM style burst of convection over Long Island 21z-00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 you gotta stop with the weenie posts and weenie tweets well saying 6z is pretty warm is laughable i mean it's late oct and 0c 850 line is east of 495...that's cold man ...cold .....trending milder yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i plan on staying at 1k in westminster, MA scooter or ryan anyone think that area is "golden". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, winter storm watch in October. Trick or treat? Definitely treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm laying in bed reading this thread on 4 hours sleep. I am sooo fooking pumped. I got worried when I saw the WSW for 2-5" but looks like they were being extra conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bob and I chucked em deep and long LOL..I saw that. He was being very conservative earlier as he always is. Thankfully you were there this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 But still snow for HVN and HFD once we get rid of the boundary layer warmth. I think there may be some convective feedback on the 6z GFS tugging this thing a bit closer to the coast. It has a NAM style burst of convection over Long Island 21z-00z. Loop the 850 and 700 maps. It does some weird sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Loop the 850 and 700 maps. It does some weird sh*t. Yeah no kidding... looking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wish someone would define where they think the powder/vs wet snow zone sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Loop the 850 and 700 maps. It does some weird sh*t. Given the extreme amount of baroclinicity and an absolutely remarkable amount of frotogenesis plus available moisture I think we're going to see some funky things with convection trying to throw off the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thundersnow looks like a good bet..Haven't seen that mentioned That would make it 2 out of the prior 3 days for me if it happens...in October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A lot of the maps are looking pretty similar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it looks like elevated interior CT is a lock.....less qpf issues than w mass potentially could have and less BL issues then interior E MAss will have talking about areas from danbury north toward norfolk look primed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think this storm is going to do some things that are basically unforecastable.. With those warm SST's..we're going to see some really funky things go on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A lot of the maps are looking pretty similar: unless this ticks west ala GFS, that tilts the heaviest band too far west imo... NAM/EURO put that stripe over central / interior eastern Mass / central CT / northwestern RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Given the extreme amount of baroclinicity and an absolutely remarkable amount of frotogenesis plus available moisture I think we're going to see some funky things with convection trying to throw off the models. Yeah it's possible. I'm wondering about a 2 QPF max. One near the 700 backbent warmfront/pivot point and maybe one by the CF?? Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it looks like elevated interior CT is a lock.....less qpf issues than w mass potentially could have and less BL issues then interior E MAss will have talking about areas from danbury north toward norfolk look primed Yeah places like Washington, Warren, Cornwall, etc are gonna clean up I bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does NE Ct not far as well on this? I am thinking 6-8 for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 unless this ticks west ala GFS, that tilts the heaviest band too far west imo... NAM/EURO put that stripe over central / interior eastern Mass / central CT / northwestern RI Agreed..it's not gonna be over NW NJ That needs to be shifted east 50-100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think this storm is going to do some things that are basically unforecastable.. With those warm SST's..we're going to see some really funky things go on Lightning so intense it'll melt anything that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Will if you're still up, how worried about mixing are you? Sref probs have a pretty tight east gradient with the probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So now that many will have a white Halloween, you can lock in 60F and an inside runner on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Mike, you going down to BOX tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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