Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hype sells..Who's buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Care to share who we're talking about? No, one of my clients...I'd never breach client anonymity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here are 3z SREF maps from SPC, HPC http://www.spc.noaa....AN12HR_f051.gif http://www.hpc.ncep....sipa_us_f51.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Observing different regions from afar, and very interested in all of this...just an observation and question for the mets in here. The guys in the DC area are VERY conservative on this, even to the north and west of the city...they all think 3-6 inches at most, even when 1.5 inches of QPF are being printed out by the models. They keep pointing to climo, and saying this can't happen....you folks up here have thrown out climo. I can see the DC folks side...this is extremely rare, and it would be a once in 100-200 year event most likely. Is the reason that they are so leery to commit to any sort of large event is simply geographic, that they are further south. I mean, temps look plenty cold enough, even just outside of the DC area to support 6-10 inches of heavy, wet snow. I guess my feeling is, whether it is January or October, if it looks like a duck, and acts like a duck, it is a duck....if you get what I am saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't think it's been thrown out. Take a look at the BOX forecast, and the fact that the TV mets are refusing to publish maps. One ocean breeze and this whole thing goes to hell. If Mets go big on this one and are wrong, all the forecasts for the rest of the winter suffer. Observing different regions from afar, and very interested in all of this...just an observation and question for the mets in here. The guys in the DC area are VERY conservative on this, even to the north and west of the city...they all think 3-6 inches at most, even when 1.5 inches of QPF are being printed out by the models. They keep pointing to climo, and saying this can't happen....you folks up here have thrown out climo. I can see the DC folks side...this is extremely rare, and it would be a once in 100-200 year event most likely. Is the reason that they are so leery to commit to any sort of large event is simply geographic, that they are further south. I mean, temps look plenty cold enough, even just outside of the DC area to support 6-10 inches of heavy, wet snow. I guess my feeling is, whether it is January or October, if it looks like a duck, and acts like a duck, it is a duck....if you get what I am saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't think it's been thrown out. Take a look at the BOX forecast, and the fact that the TV mets are refusing to publish maps. One ocean breeze and this whole thing goes to hell. If Mets go big on this one and are wrong, all the forecasts for the rest of the winter suffer. Ehh...I wasn;t really talking about TV Mets and the NWS...they have to play it conservative a bit...I am sure that every single one of them is sitting there amazed at what is going on, and are all weenied out right now. But I see Orh, coastal, and others going nuts on this, and then see the guys in the mid atlantic saying climo will win. Just interested in the different perspectives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Observing different regions from afar, and very interested in all of this...just an observation and question for the mets in here. The guys in the DC area are VERY conservative on this, even to the north and west of the city...they all think 3-6 inches at most, even when 1.5 inches of QPF are being printed out by the models. They keep pointing to climo, and saying this can't happen....you folks up here have thrown out climo. I can see the DC folks side...this is extremely rare, and it would be a once in 100-200 year event most likely. Is the reason that they are so leery to commit to any sort of large event is simply geographic, that they are further south. I mean, temps look plenty cold enough, even just outside of the DC area to support 6-10 inches of heavy, wet snow. I guess my feeling is, whether it is January or October, if it looks like a duck, and acts like a duck, it is a duck....if you get what I am saying. There's more issues down there than up in SNE...we share some issues, but also have some we don't share...one is the mid-level temps...the NAM is plenty cold, but other models are a little warmer...and even with the colder ML temp models, it occurs during day time and not evening and night time...its a small difference but it matters at this time of year when every little factor can be the difference between slushy junk and actual heavy wet snow. Finally, the latitude matters as well when it comes to antecedent airmass and surrounding conditions like SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 OKX going with 0.2 accumulation of snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Phew. lots of typing. done. watch is out! tremendous discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What happened with the NAM? Didn't see much talk. tremendous discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What happened with the NAM? Didn't see much talk. Pretty much identical to 00z...maybe a hair west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You guys think we start as a mix or do we just start as straight snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Congrats ORH hills and interior CP on the Euro...Kevin too. Sleep well and stay thirsty my friend..the most interesting met in the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thundersnow looks like a good bet..Haven't seen that mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL,GFS even more west, although VVs through the roof preventing too much warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man who would have thought the GFS so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I want more chance of snow, this means you need to tell me it's ticking east and colder. LOL,GFS even more west, although VVs through the roof preventing too much warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can't believe even I have SREFs 8"+ probs of 60%. Nice discussion Arnold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 kevin, you feeling as bullish for eastern areas of MA where there are currently no watches? the NAM/EURO tonight are absolutely historic and have been consistently so, and the best mets here are balls to wall . . . But we're still not seeing that kind of enthusiasm on public forecasts. look at Matt Noyes forecast for example, last night called for "3, 4, maybe 5 inches" in central CT, central Mass up to VT. seems like people are hedging given how unprecedented this is and unclear marine impact. just curious what your thoughts are since you were one of the first to call this as big as it looks it'll be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think this is fair: Can't believe even I have SREFs 8"+ probs of 60%. Nice discussion Arnold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Absolutely perfect timing too. Sunday is going to be cold with the deep snowcover for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man who would have thought the GFS so far west. there's always gotta be a fly in the ointment 03z SREFs were similarly warmer i'd bet on NAM/Euro over GFS and SREFs, but still uneasy and can understand why public forecasts remain conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bob and I chucked em deep and long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looping the H7 heights on the GFS, it's as if the convective look is causing random mid level centers to pop. While it's a little too early to tell....We might have to beware of a 2 zone QPF max...like Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bob and I chucked em deep and long Ryan do you think OKX call for 0.2 of snow is out to lunch (here),and are you believing what the warm gfs is selling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bob and I chucked em deep and long nice!! be interesting to see coordination between different forecast offices, not everyone was ready to make that kind of call to the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I declare this "Thumpin' the pumpkin 2011" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Almost the same as the weather channel map I posted above. Bob and I chucked em deep and long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6z GFS is definitely warm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bob and I chucked em deep and long Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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