weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Whatever those wx underground simulated snowfall maps mean ....it certainly looked like southern VT was in it good for 8 or more hours. I might not be online for a while...might be stuck up top the mountain b/c there would be no way to drive down it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Matt Noyes said inside 495 may have mostly rain due to the winds off the warm water despite what the models say. Noyes playing it conservatively... mentioned Western CT, Western/Central MA, and Southern VT having potential for "3, 4, or 5 inches of snow" but areas further east, esp inside 495, will have difficulty with influence of warm SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If wxsniss is right ..... I counted up and it has like 3.5" to 4" of snow here and more like 6" or 6.5" in general in southern VT. That would be less than the GFS, but definitely more generous than the NAM. Whatever those wx underground simulated snowfall maps mean ....it certainly looked like southern VT was in it good for 8 or more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 8 and 12 inch probs not updated yet!!! http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif SWEET!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well, this sure beats Torch talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 first winter storm watch in OCTOBER!!!!! ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>014-017-026. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-014-020- 021.NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001-002. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002>007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREFS have alot of precip and are west!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREFS have alot of precip and are west!! Come to Papa.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Come to Papa.lol Interior winter FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Impressive AFD: In either case dynamics are very strong with this event thanks to good deformation and frontogenesis in the classic trowal sense. Given these strong dynamics...feel that much of the area will see at least some -sn with this current trend thanks to strong dynamic cooling. The best banding looks to be right along the corridor mentioned in the previous afd...from the north central CT Highlands through northern Rhode Island and into the bos suburbs. The key will be winds to draw either cool air or marine air into the frontogenetical system...as winds shift to more of a north component thanks to strong isallobaric flow north of this line...and may even become more east-southeast S of the line which would draw warmer marine air to the coastal plain. The cool air meets warm marine air is also a factor in the generation of strong coastal frontogenesis...which may aid in snow/rain fall near Eastern Shores. There is still some time to nail this down as the relatively small /50+ nm or so/ differences in track could make a huge difference in either a high snow total or a mix. However...this will have to be monitored because thanks to the strong dynamics...quantitative precipitation forecast totals will be very high...and even areas that stay mostly rain could have the potential for some flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Interior SNE FTW.....I still cannot see how this misses those folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6znam digging more at 15 then 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL The ski areas won't be open, but you can get some back country practice in. Come to Papa.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Interior SNE FTW.....I still cannot see how this misses those folks Seems like there's some debate about how far inland coastal front will set up, with very warm SSTs atypical for these types of events being a factor... simply no precedent, and I can see why there's hedging. For example, Noyes seemed to suggest that despite the dynamics, the marine influence would be tough to overcome inside 495 for any accumulation. On the other hand, Euro / NAM suggest potential for near warning criteria for Boston suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, the euro goes apesh*t for about 6-8 hrs. GFS dryslots some, but still spesh*t.....LOL. What the hell is happening??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Impressive AFD: In either case dynamics are very strong with this event thanks to good deformation and frontogenesis in the classic trowal sense. Given these strong dynamics...feel that much of the area will see at least some -sn with this current trend thanks to strong dynamic cooling. The best banding looks to be right along the corridor mentioned in the previous afd...from the north central CT Highlands through northern Rhode Island and into the bos suburbs. The key will be winds to draw either cool air or marine air into the frontogenetical system...as winds shift to more of a north component thanks to strong isallobaric flow north of this line...and may even become more east-southeast S of the line which would draw warmer marine air to the coastal plain. The cool air meets warm marine air is also a factor in the generation of strong coastal frontogenesis...which may aid in snow/rain fall near Eastern Shores. There is still some time to nail this down as the relatively small /50+ nm or so/ differences in track could make a huge difference in either a high snow total or a mix. However...this will have to be monitored because thanks to the strong dynamics...quantitative precipitation forecast totals will be very high...and even areas that stay mostly rain could have the potential for some flooding. Will and I mentioned some of this. The coastal front should be pretty nuts. Not that there is a massive temp gradient like in winter, but warmer sst's giving off more moisture may make for one hell of a front. That, and the frontogenesis will be tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, the euro goes apesh*t for about 6-8 hrs. GFS dryslots some, but still spesh*t.....LOL. What the hell is happening??? Euro is nudity for ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is nudity for ORH hills. Yeah it is. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is nudity for ORH hills. Look how cold those 850 temps are...even down to the canal...lol. We'll be begging for those temps in the middle of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, the euro goes apesh*t for about 6-8 hrs. GFS dryslots some, but still spesh*t.....LOL. What the hell is happening??? yeah this is some serious pre-"2012"/"DayAfterTomorrow" stuff... back-to-back blizzards, F3, earthquake, hurricane... i'm afraid to honk this snowstorm to colleagues because i just can't believe the model output, it's remarkable for mid-winter, but just too unreal for october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 yeah this is some serious pre-"2012"/"DayAfterTomorrow" stuff... back-to-back blizzards, F3, earthquake, hurricane... i'm afraid to honk this snowstorm to colleagues because i just can't believe the model output, it's remarkable for mid-winter, but just too unreal for october It's still going to be rain for a while on the coast, but when winds go north, it could go nuts for about 6 hrs. That and the wind looks very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah it is. Wow. I cannot believe I'm issuing a forecast that is more than the October snowfall record for ORH. I'm doing it. I'm going 8-12" for those hills. Record at ORH is 7.5" in 1979. Maybe I should go 6-12" to cover myself. I want to go 5-9" but its too hard to ignore the signals...I can't go that low with it as cold as it is. If it was all -1C, I'd go 3-6, but its so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Phew. lots of typing. done. watch is out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 BOX forecasting 2-5" for Mt. Tolland and ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I can't go too conservative when it looks like we might have a fooking ground blizzard at 28F in the latter half of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I cannot believe I'm issuing a forecast that is more than the October snowfall record for ORH. I'm doing it. I'm going 8-12" for those hills. Record at ORH is 7.5" in 1979. Maybe I should go 6-12" to cover myself. I want to go 5-9" but its too hard to ignore the signals...I can't go that low with it as cold as it is. If it was all -1C, I'd go 3-6, but its so cold. Well look at that data. And the EC ensembles. They're gonna drop to like 30F too. I think 8-12 above 800' from you on north is ....gulp....solid at this point. Unless this comes into Bob's fanny...seems reasonable that it will be near the BM I guess. I suppose wait until 06z to dumb it down 6-12...but look at the data man. I can't believe this. We may never see this again...ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 BOX forecasting 2-5" for Mt. Tolland and ORH Only way that verifies is if there is a dryslot and this goes way west or it goes so far SE that we don't get into good precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well look at that data. And the EC ensembles. They're gonna drop to like 30F too. I think 8-12 above 800' from you on north is ....gulp....solid at this point. Unless this comes into Bob's fanny...seems reasonable that it will be near the BM I guess. I suppose wait until 06z to dumb it down 6-12...but look at the data man. I can't believe this. We may never see this again...ever. Hell Kevin might be right there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's still going to be rain for a while on the coast, but when winds go north, it could go nuts for about 6 hrs. That and the wind looks very strong. oh i understand... i'm expecting, at best, a mini-April 97 for Boston metro: sun sets and heavy rain changes to ballistic snow for a good 6 hours... but the public is not in this mindframe at all. and obviously the impact will be much worse 10-20 miles further inland. i'm in awe of just how much this deviates from the norm established by > 100 years of record keeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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