H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I've never seen an October profile so cold for a coastal like this....ever. It looks like December except the SSts are like upper 50s. WIll do you think I would do better with a GFS solution or something more like the NAM? I have the longitude to get away with the GFS I guess but seeing it that close makes me think I'd struggle since my elevation is kind of mediocre. I suppose middle ground like the ECM could be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 WIll do you think I would do better with a GFS solution or something more like the NAM? I have the longitude to get away with the GFS I guess but seeing it that close makes me think I'd struggle since my elevation is kind of mediocre. I suppose middle ground like the ECM could be ideal. GFS all the way baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Still having trouble believing it, the what can go wrongs keep falling by the wayside, hour by hour, run by run. I agree with you, best comma head snows Pete to Hunchie to Dryslut Not much can go wrong this close in...maybe coastal area get too warm but its going to be historic for someone one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not much can go wrong this close in...maybe coastal area get too warm but its going to be historic for someone one way or the other. I hope you knocked on every single piece of wood around you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not much can go wrong this close in...maybe coastal area get too warm but its going to be historic for someone one way or the other. What kind of heat do you have, little different than losing power in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What kind of heat do you have, little different than losing power in the summer. Nat gas. I should be fine. But power outages will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nat gas. I should be fine. But power outages will happen. That's good, propane for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I've never seen an October profile so cold for a coastal like this....ever. It looks like December except the SSts are like upper 50s. Following models dating back to the AOL days and dialup, I can never recall anything even close to this. Pretty astounding. Still having trouble believing it, the what can go wrongs keep falling by the wayside, hour by hour, run by run. I agree with you, best comma head snows Pete to Hunchie to Dryslut I've been removed from most of the festivities of the last two winters. Time and time again the improbably is happening. So it's possible and apparently quite probable. -- I think the GFS/GEFS are on drugs. Until the Euro goes the other way, the GFS is our Joe Biden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is someone going to do the play by play on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Following models dating back to the AOL days and dialup, I can never recall anything even close to this. Pretty astounding. I cannot either. This looks like a December storm on the models. I've never seen anything close to this good on the models before that. For October this is likely a once in a lifetime event for most of us....to see this is amazing. Even the Cape...without the snow threat...has a huge threat of 50-60 kt winds. Could be gusts to hurricane force with the warm SSTs helping mix down the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The Nelson Cruz play on that two strike fly to RF was just terrible. Will haunt him. Agree... he's got to catch that ball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's good, propane for me. I'm screwed if we lose power for more than 2 or 3 days. It will be just like November 2002 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Agree... he's got to catch that ball! JD would have caught that ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I cannot either. This looks like a December storm on the models. I've never seen anything close to this good on the models before that. For October this is likely a once in a lifetime event for most of us....to see this is amazing. Even the Cape...without the snow threat...has a huge threat of 50-60 kt winds. Could be gusts to hurricane force with the warm SSTs helping mix down the winds. What's weird Will is the depth of the cold. It's going to be colder throughout most of the storm even down here aloft to snow. Just too early in the season with 50s so close. I wonder what is going on with the volatility. Like I said this is how I envision global warming but that's OT....increased volatility especially with regard to the changing seasons. Winters seem to be coming earlier, exiting earlier the last x or xx years. I assume you're doing the euro run down? It's 10/28 and I'm up watching models (while working) when at best I get some snizzle at the end, gotta love it. Just hoping it can come together for foxboro, will go stay up there during the height of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What's weird Will is the depth of the cold. It's going to be colder throughout most of the storm even down here aloft to snow. Just too early in the season with 50s so close. I wonder what is going on with the volatility. Like I said this is how I envision global warming but that's OT....increased volatility especially with regard to the changing seasons. Winters seem to be coming earlier, exiting earlier the last x or xx years. I assume you're doing the euro run down? It's 10/28 and I'm up watching models (while working) when at best I get some snizzle at the end, gotta love it. Just hoping it can come together for foxboro, will go stay up there during the height of it. Yeah I'll do the Euro...for likely the biggest October snowstorm on record for most sites in SNE, I cannot avoid it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 crazy to think about but the JMA showed this for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i might even stay up for the 6z nam at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wonder if the fact that we do have such a warm ocean right along the shoreline (not just out in the Gulf Stream as if this was Dec/Jan) would put the best thermal boundary closer in and make this hug the coast more. Though I'm sure that's simplistic and the position of the trough, vort etc. are big players. What's weird Will is the depth of the cold. It's going to be colder throughout most of the storm even down here aloft to snow. Just too early in the season with 50s so close. I wonder what is going on with the volatility. Like I said this is how I envision global warming but that's OT....increased volatility especially with regard to the changing seasons. Winters seem to be coming earlier, exiting earlier the last x or xx years. I assume you're doing the euro run down? It's 10/28 and I'm up watching models (while working) when at best I get some snizzle at the end, gotta love it. Just hoping it can come together for foxboro, will go stay up there during the height of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What's left in the next hour, Euro at 2:15 and individual GFS individual ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah I'll do the Euro...for likely the biggest October snowstorm on record for most sites in SNE, I cannot avoid it. Cool thanks. Yep, this is one for the ages. Living on the water I'm accustomed to following from afar. I just like the history of the whole thing most of the time. Can we really be on the verage of a 1' snowstorm in October? Trick or treating with snow shovels...that's cool. I wonder if the fact that we do have such a warm ocean right along the shoreline (not just out in the Gulf Stream as if this was Dec/Jan) would put the best thermal boundary closer in and make this hug the coast more. Though I'm sure that's simplistic and the position of the trough, vort etc. are big players. Beats me Rick. I don't think anyone can wrap their head around it. I saw Kevin L on Fox 25, he had the r/s line up by about Easton/Sharon for storm 2. He did not have it tucking into SE MA. Good call? Pending the new Euro probably because we had a hard time getting cold air penetration tonight on albeit weak dynamics into SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Actually it happened in ENY right around this date three years ago, though all confined to above about 750 ft elevation. Very dynamic wrapped low and 9" here at 1k feet with 26" the top amount in the Catskills. Cool thanks. Yep, this is one for the ages. Living on the water I'm accustomed to following from afar. I just like the history of the whole thing most of the time. Can we really be on the verage of a 1' snowstorm in October? Trick or treating with snow shovels...that's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What's left in the next hour, Euro at 2:15 and individual GFS individual ensembles? And after that comes the 06z runs. There's really no way to work in sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah I'll do the Euro...for likely the biggest October snowstorm on record for most sites in SNE, I cannot avoid it. The record oct snowstorm for PWM is 3.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 okay so it's rolling right? The euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Actually it happened in ENY right around this date three years ago, though all confined to above about 750 ft elevation. Very dynamic wrapped low and 9" here at 1k feet with 26" the top amount in the Catskills. Lol, wasn't it not too long ago I posted the 10/4/87 totals after you said October was a throw away month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At 24 kind of splitsville between the GFS and NAM at 500. Euro contours v GFS lines. It's tough to tell with this scale but is this hinting the GFS may be overdone coming down into the Lakes or is it just the grid effects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro destroys the ORH hills and interior E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 its a lock!!!!! I cant believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Congrats ORH hills and interior CP on the Euro...Kevin too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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