Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Maybe, just MAYBE not - this is a very cold air mass - unusually so...This type of intense storm will maximize that. Could easily turn out drier snow that doesn't "cling" so well - Certainly my hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Oh, I am mostly looking at the ML features. Clearly you'd get dryslotted on the GFS...so would I to a lesser extent. NAM is def better for you. QPF is a trap in big coastals...models don't do well...ala Boxing Day when a lot of people got dryslotted. I just checked out Boxing Day on the NARR...I don't think even the GFS depiction would result in anything close to that dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z Ukie, canadian, Nam all way SE of GFS. I think GFS is on crack. This storm will be driven by the temp gradient that sets up before the storm and I think the mesos will handle that better. With the strong push of unseasonably cold air offshore, I think there is a good chance it tracks SE of where the ML features might suggest. Ukie pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yep verbatim, that's the printout. It's all nowcast now, obviously huge storm, wait and see how the final solution works out. i wish i knew how to do a map i like Eastern elevated PA (1k and up) 2..up thru Nw chunk of NJ (1k and up) up thru SW elevated ct (700') and up thru norfolk ct up to pittsfield mass as a general JPot area of 8-14 with 20 inch lollies in areas close to 1500-2000' i think banding will be most impressive out there and i would cut amounts in half for the tolland elevation 600' plus to N. orh crowd 4-7 lollies of 8 or 9 . with 2-3 inches 495 area and windswept rain E of 495. IFFF we get the Nj low scenario...... if we get the storm sig more east then area like ORH- down to NE ct and W..estern elevated rhode island could JPOT IMO with 8-14 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ukie pic? -4C line runs CT shore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I just checked out Boxing Day on the NARR...I don't think even the GFS depiction would result in anything close to that dry slot. Yea that was really tucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i wish i knew how to do a map i like Eastern elevated PA (1k and up) 2..up thru Nw chunk of NJ (1k and up) up thru SW elevated ct (700') and up thru norfolk ct up to pittsfield mass as a general JPot area of 8-14 with 20 inch lollies in areas close to 1500-2000' i think banding will be most impressive out there and i would cut amounts in half for the tolland elevation 600' plus to N. orh crowd 4-7 lollies of 8 or 9 . with 2-3 inches 495 area and windswept rain E of 495. Nj low with crappy banding over E SNE. Talk dirty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i wish i knew how to do a map i like Eastern elevated PA (1k and up) 2..up thru Nw chunk of NJ (1k and up) up thru SW elevated ct (700') and up thru norfolk ct up to pittsfield mass as a general JPot area of 8-14 with 20 inch lollies in areas close to 1500-2000' i think banding will be most impressive out there and i would cut amounts in half for the tolland elevation 600' plus to N. orh crowd 4-7 lollies of 8 or 9 . with 2-3 inches 495 area and windswept rain E of 495. Nj low with crappy banding over E SNE. rain? e of 495.. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z Ukie, canadian, Nam all way SE of GFS. I think GFS is on crack. This storm will be driven by the temp gradient that sets up before the storm and I think the mesos will handle that better. With the strong push of unseasonably cold air offshore, I think there is a good chance cyclogenesis is a good bit SE of where the MLs might suggest. Where are you getting the Ukie already? I assume you're referencing the RGEM not the GGEM? I don't disagree, actually agree re the GFS. If the euro is SE forgetaboutit' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 WOW CARDINALS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Cards what an epic game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This game is amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Where are you getting the Ukie already? I assume you're referencing the RGEM not the GGEM? I don't disagree, actually agree re the GFS. If the euro is SE forgetaboutit' Plymouth.. see pic earlier.. -4C runs CT shore at 48hrs. Agree about the Euro.. if the theory is correct (I think I am saying something similar to what BI was saying) then the Euro should show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ukie def more like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 either the world series goes to the 11th or game 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 either the world series goes to the 11th or game 7 Good call, how much for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Electrical bath on the NAM and jackpot on the GFS. This is why I like Hubbdave's spot...right in the middle. EC is the key once again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 EC is the key once again... When isn't it, how much does this feel like last year, holy déjà LaEpic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This game is amazing! It is, even better that I don't care who wins so it's enjoyable. What a game! Plymouth.. see pic earlier.. -4C runs CT shore at 48hrs. Agree about the Euro.. if the theory is correct (I think I am saying something similar to what BI was saying) then the Euro should show that. Thanks yep just saw it. elongated like the others that are not the GFS. I don't see any evidence of pure convective feedback in the others, doesn't mean it's not there. I just don't trust Ukie def more like the NAM Yes for sure. GFS may be in la la land. It had earlier GEFS support but? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 EC is the key once again... I think it will go middle ground like it has previously. I think Hubbdave's spot and mine are pretty good...probably Socks too for a jackpot. Gardner at 1300 feet might be primo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 When isn't it, how much does this feel like last year, holy déjà LaEpic Boxing Day euro wasn't key lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My call is 8+ for GC and environs. 4-8 ORH hills ....3-6 for the rev down to Steve. 2-4 for Ray and 1-2 for us knaves on the coast north of the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What time is the EURO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 rain? e of 495.. wow. i could see it happening in a tucked NJ low scenario where ENE winds torch the BL east of 495 ...perhaps even a tad further West (it is OCT!) and then somewhat shredded precip over E SNE doesn't produce enough dynamic cooling to cool BL much. If it is isn't a tucked low then i think it would be more likely a scenario where the 495 area would be primarily snow and the low tracks 50 miles S of ACK on a ENE/NE heading and jpots elevations above 600' in NE ct NW ri and ORH county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i could see it happening in a tucked NJ low scenario where ENE winds torch the BL east of 495 ...perhaps even a tad further West (it is OCT!) and then somewhat shredded precip over E SNE doesn't produce enough dynamic cooling to cool BL much. If it is isn't a tucked low then i think it would be more likely a scenario where the 495 area would be primarily snow and the low tracks 50 miles S of ACK on a ENE/NE heading and jpots elevations above 600' in NE ct NW ri and ORH county Snow didn't penetrate as far into interior SE MA tonight as I thought it might. Be interesting to see if that followed in the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Boxing Day euro wasn't key lol. La Epic was Jan 12 ,copyrighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think it will go middle ground like it has previously. I think Hubbdave's spot and mine are pretty good...probably Socks too for a jackpot. Gardner at 1300 feet might be primo. Wouldn't the jackpot on the NAM be the hills at Ginx latitude (or else I am reading it wrong)? I take it you're not buying that at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 interested in the GFS ensembles what time are they out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wouldn't the jackpot on the NAM be Ginx latitude (or else I am reading it wrong)? I take it you're not buying that at all? Yeah it would be NE CT and S ORH county and NW RI...but that is the furthest SE model...GFS is is the berks. So a middle ground is central MA to Socks in S NH. Thats where the Euro has been pegging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My call is 8+ for GC and environs. 4-8 ORH hills ....3-6 for the rev down to Steve. 2-4 for Ray and 1-2 for us knaves on the coast north of the south coast. Nice, what is key will be ratios with the dense cold air and tremendous lift, very high -sds , oh crap now I know what Wiz was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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