Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Second Winter Storm Threat - Oct 29/30


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Relax Messenger

Was simply asking from an educational standpoint John, not argumentative. In the back of my mind I had your comments from earlier today indicating that the GFS scoring has been behind even the UKMET as of late.

GFS is actually far west enough that I might dryslot here for a time...but it collapses back SE. Pretty big difference with NAM and even SREF.

True.

Of interest to me is that at 45 hours the 500mb pattern shows the NAM slower with the main feature and as a result it develops later. I don't see any huge signs of feedback to be honest at that stage, just handling of the s/w differently. Almost almost all of last year in these situations the global models ended up having a better idea beyond 42 hours.

Bring on the King.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nah, Both models have me near 2 QPF with mostly snow.

Oh, I am mostly looking at the ML features. Clearly you'd get dryslotted on the GFS...so would I to a lesser extent. NAM is def better for you. QPF is a trap in big coastals...models don't do well...ala Boxing Day when a lot of people got dryslotted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, I am mostly looking at the ML features. Clearly you'd get dryslotted on the GFS...so would I to a lesser extent. NAM is def better for you. QPF is a trap in big coastals...models don't do well...ala Boxing Day when a lot of people got dryslotted.

Yep verbatim, that's the printout. It's all nowcast now, obviously huge storm, wait and see how the final solution works out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interior NE powergrid is going to take a big hit. Quite a bit of tree damage with paste snows, leaves and wind. If I was CEO of the big power companies in the northeast I would not be getting a lot of sleep tonight!

Maybe, just MAYBE not - this is a very cold air mass - unusually so...This type of intense storm will maximize that. Could easily turn out drier snow that doesn't "cling" so well -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z Ukie, canadian, Nam all way SE of GFS. I think GFS is on crack. This storm will be driven by the temp gradient that sets up before the storm and I think the mesos will handle that better. With the strong push of unseasonably cold air offshore, I think there is a good chance cyclogenesis is a good bit SE of where the MLs might suggest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interior NE powergrid is going to take a big hit. Quite a bit of tree damage with paste snows, leaves and wind. If I was CEO of the big power companies in the northeast I would not be getting a lot of sleep tonight!

Yea that 2.5 mil bonus they gave to NE Ut chairman would cause me to lose sleep. As I skied on the Alps drinking Grand M

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...