ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Eh, not thrilled by the NAMs sfc positions relative to the dynamics aloft - I suspect the actual sfc low track will be tucked closer in to the coast than this 00z run. This is striking me somewhat similar to the Dec 2005 event... The model(s) are focusing on a Cape H detonation site ...which may be initially, but as the wind max aloft careen N of there, the thickness gradient packs tightest about 50 miles ESE of NYC, and we see the low is about 200 miles farther out to sea than that... Not right. The low will tend to track along that greatest gradient, particularly when there is that much mechanical lift riding directly over top. The UVV will be focused along that axis and the low will maybe be tilted slightly east to west, but will be close to where the UVV is maximizing. good insight. Where do you see the low tracking exactly as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Their may have been some feedback..just basing on looking at the behavior of the sea level pressure..but not totally sure. The NAM will do strange things sometimes. It has been improved to avoid these problems, but when you put a system like this near the Gulf Stream..things like convective feedback can potentially happen. It's possible it isn't feedback too. The NAM placement like Dendrite said..isn't terribly different at hr 45. I don't see any actual "feedback" issues in this case, not like the type that crippled the older version NAM during some major high impact events last winter. Given the incredibly high precipitable water values and the moist convection associated with the coastal/WCB, wobbles are a realistic expectation. If anything I see high frequency variability with the synoptics/phasing being more of a factor in run by run changes here. I will say, in cases like this (and I have not been paying much attention at all with work related stuff...so I am not at all up to speed here) with extreme precipitable waters and relatively high CAPE across the WCB, there is a fine line between moist convection enhancing the track/intensity and it actually resulting in a solution farther E/SE due to a dominant coastal with poorer inland low level trajectories. Either way it looks like a great track for you guys, I am envious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 good insight. Where do you see the low tracking exactly as of now? The 500mb evolution argues for initial low detonation near the Va Capes, then a jump to SE NJ and from there to just S of ACK... Using the right entrance - left exit jet relay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm seriously thinking about going for 10"+ for N ORH county...but want to make sure the best precip gets to them...NAM was slightly iffy and kept the best in SE ORH County, but considering its the furthest SE model right now, I'd think going pretty bullish up there is a good call right now, but I will wait until more guidance comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Potential for coastal flooding given slightly above normal astronomical tides? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 500mb evolution argues for initial low detonation near the Va Capes, then a jump to SE NJ and from there to just S of ACK... Using the right entrance - left exit jet relay With that low track, doesn't that denote fairly significant precip thrown back in CNE, NNE? or will it be tucked south like the NAM has been showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Clown time MPM toaster bath style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ji, on 27 October 2011 - 02:43 AM, said: Killing me that this storm is happening in Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 With that low track, doesn't that denote fairly significant precip thrown back in CNE, NNE? or will it be tucked south like the NAM has been showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Potential for coastal flooding given slightly above normal astronomical tides? dude that's a huge tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 With that low track, doesn't that denote fairly significant precip thrown back in CNE, NNE? or will it be tucked south like the NAM has been showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm seriously thinking about going for 10"+ for N ORH county...but want to make sure the best precip gets to them...NAM was slightly iffy and kept the best in SE ORH County, but considering its the furthest SE model right now, I'd think going pretty bullish up there is a good call right now, but I will wait until more guidance comes in. Holy **** weenie Cobb Bufkit gives IJD 22 inches on the Nam, it did nail the Jan storms last year within an inch though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0z gfs time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 dude that's a huge tide Being a few days off the new moon I didn't think it would be that significant. Be fun in Nahant saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm seriously thinking about going for 10"+ for N ORH county...but want to make sure the best precip gets to them...NAM was slightly iffy and kept the best in SE ORH County, but considering its the furthest SE model right now, I'd think going pretty bullish up there is a good call right now, but I will wait until more guidance comes in. Wow, if that verified, it would be epic. I would expect major tree damage and they're just starting to recover from the ice storm of 08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 thats what im most worried about here 75% of trees still have most of there leaves actually a couple full green ones also Wow, if that verified, it would be epic. I would expect major tree damage and they're just starting to recover from the ice storm of 08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Clown time MPM toaster bath style Attlehole FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, if that verified, it would be epic. I would expect major tree damage and they're just starting to recover from the ice storm of 08. ya i'm thinkin of gettin a hotel in westminster at 1k...but wanna make sure precip gets up there..first. wont make a decison till prolly sat am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 thats what im most worried about here 75% of trees still have most of there leaves actually a couple full green ones also So much for the leaves falling with the snow, lots of power outages trees down Atkinson NH per Skywarn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It was doing some interesting things with dual low centers at hr 42. Of course it is entirely possible that it's true, but seemed a little weird. Scott I see what you're saying. Not sure what that is all about to be honest. But it's the NAM beyond 24 hours and probably irrelevant anyway. Bring on the king/Euro, and the Queen/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, if that verified, it would be epic. I would expect major tree damage and they're just starting to recover from the ice storm of 08. Right now I'd probably go like 5-9"...but I'm seriously thinking about more like 8-13" or something. If they get into the best region of ML frontogenesis and -EPV...then its game over for small totals...that area will get absolutely walloped given how cold the atmosphere already is for this storm...you'd probably see like a 29-30F annihilation after starting as 33F wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Right now I'd probably go like 5-9"...but I'm seriously thinking about more like 8-13" or something. If they get into the best region of ML frontogenesis and -EPV...then its game over for small totals...that area will get absolutely walloped given how cold the atmosphere already is for this storm...you'd probably see like a 29-30F annihilation after starting as 33F wet snow. Will, how much have you received tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Attlehole FTW. Want a good laugh, run the Bufkits from here OQU 28 inches lol http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 With that low track, doesn't that denote fairly significant precip thrown back in CNE, NNE? or will it be tucked south like the NAM has been showing? Even if that idea turns out right I suspect the axis of best cold side output tightens up a bit due to frontogenic forcing, and that kind of band would tend to lop a DVM not too far N - that might make it hard that far up. But the margin for error is razor thin - there's gotta be a deformation band N. Don't lose hope. Don't be depressed if it you're not in it - it's only October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Soooo many late niiights this week. Litttle buzzed. Euro better be good. Snooooww! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have a tendency to agree here (at least in terms of not guaranteeing a tight coastal hugger), especially with the relative extremity of the precipitable waters across the Gulf Stream and significant potential for quite a bit of moist convection across the WCB. Not saying there is any type of east trend, but it would not be a good idea from a pure forecasting standpoint to discount eastward guidance given the potential for a strong coastal to develop associated with moist convection resulting in poorer inland low level trajectories...which would have a negative effect on WAA/mutual amplification since the jet/trough configuration will not be conducive to a negative tilt and a coupled DMC/curved jet highly positive feedback configuration. lifted this post from nyc metro thread but love this guys posts so thought id post his latest regarding the highlighted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Right now I'd probably go like 5-9"...but I'm seriously thinking about more like 8-13" or something. If they get into the best region of ML frontogenesis and -EPV...then its game over for small totals...that area will get absolutely walloped given how cold the atmosphere already is for this storm...you'd probably see like a 29-30F annihilation after starting as 33F wet snow. I'm actually considering nixing the "wet snow" cake thing and going 29F blowing snow in the ORH-FIT line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The RGEM is a little east at 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Trough appears to be digging more through 30hrs on the GFS and the ATL heightfield got pushed SE some. Storm should be stronger than 18z but not sure of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.