CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah can someone explain to me how the NAM is so far SE and yet the SREF's (aren't they related to the NAM?) are a nice hit for alot of New england. Their may have been some feedback..just basing on looking at the behavior of the sea level pressure..but not totally sure. The NAM will do strange things sometimes. It has been improved to avoid these problems, but when you put a system like this near the Gulf Stream..things like convective feedback can potentially happen. It's possible it isn't feedback too. The NAM placement like Dendrite said..isn't terribly different at hr 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Charm City Mauler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm going to a pig roast on Saturday evening. Four wheel drive FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's a suite of different mesoscale models so it's not exactly like a group of NAMs. The 00z NAM also has new data ingested into it that 21z doesn't have. Usually they aren't far off, but sometimes it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Oh okay. Sorry just trying to learn...so they aren't really related at all? The NAM runs off of the WRF, which is a particular NWP system. The SREFs are a collection of different mesoscale models with different perturbations. They include 2 sets of WRFs (NMM and ARW), the old ETA, and the RSM (regional spectral). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm going to a pig roast on Saturday evening. Four wheel drive FTW. I wouldn't worry down there too much..60F water will be tough to overcome initially in the BL..I've lived in Westbrook for 16 years and it's a sheeethole for snow, especially this time of year haha but I'm rooting for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS could easily go west, so I wouldn't sweat the NAM if I were up in NNE and western NE. It's possible we have reached that point where models back off a trend (or at least slow down the trend) and wobble around. It could, but we've seen some decent volatility. Tonight..the Euro shall be the king. An enormous ht for eastern areas but arguably outside the model's useful range. True but isn't this more in line with the Euro now? Their may have been some feedback..just basing on looking at the behavior of the sea level pressure..but not totally sure. The NAM will do strange things sometimes. It has been improved to avoid these problems, but when you put a system like this near the Gulf Stream..things like convective feedback can potentially happen. It's possible it isn't feedback too. The NAM placement like Dendrite said..isn't terribly different at hr 45. I'm not sure it's feedback. Starts very early. Just more progressive. Not sure it's right, but isn't it more in line with the OP GFS and Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am guessing the NAM clown map will give me 12-18 at least, absolutely perfect for me. Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 00z NAM also has new data ingested into it that 21z doesn't have. Usually they aren't far off, but sometimes it matters. The SREF probs for 1, 4, and 8 are pretty high even up here to my west this early. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It could, but we've seen some decent volatility. Tonight..the Euro shall be the king. True but isn't this more in line with the Euro now? I'm not sure it's feedback. Starts very early. Just more progressive. Not sure it's right, but isn't it more in line with the OP GFS and Euro? It was doing some interesting things with dual low centers at hr 42. Of course it is entirely possible that it's true, but seemed a little weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The nam probably gives me 8-10". I'd take that I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am guessing the NAM clown map will give me 12-18 at least, absolutely perfect for me. Unreal The guys at Northeast Utilities are going to be happy to see your fire pit again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The guys at Northeast Utilities are going to be happy to see your fire pit again! That reminds me I need to Tarp that off! Not to be greedy but when do we start a storm 3 thread, holy clipper flipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well enjoy the 00z suite. Should be interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The SREF probs for 1, 4, and 8 are pretty high even up here to my west this early. Interesting. Let me bring down some smithwicks to help you shake off the rust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The SREF probs for 1, 4, and 8 are pretty high even up here to my west this early. Interesting. Odds of ORH breaking their Oct snowstorm record of 7.5"? I put it at 60/40 in favor of I think. The only question mark is if this somehow craps out on precip...but otherwise its balls to wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Full nudity......priapism.... http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/fous/ETA/FOUS61.KWNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Odds of ORH breaking their Oct snowstorm record of 7.5"? I put it at 60/40 in favor of I think. The only question mark is if this somehow craps out on precip...but otherwise its balls to wall. I'd say that's about right at this point. Maybe a 70% prob of tying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Full nudity......priapism.... http://asp1.sbs.ohio...ETA/FOUS61.KWNO Is there a brief way to explain how those are read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Full nudity......priapism.... http://asp1.sbs.ohio...ETA/FOUS61.KWNO how do you read that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some people here should have a higher seasonal total at the end of October than they had entering February 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Full nudity......priapism.... http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/fous/ETA/FOUS61.KWNO Lasting more than 4 hours, call all neighborhood women. Sick minds we have, just ask Will. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some people here should have a higher seasonal total at the end of October than they had entering February 2007. Ryan's winter forecast for some could be toast before Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Full nudity......priapism.... http://asp1.sbs.ohio...ETA/FOUS61.KWNO emergency room? chest pain? no. lol, sick people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some people here should have a higher seasonal total at the end of October than they had entering February 2007. 5.0" on Feb 1, 2007 for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the initial synoptic look of the NAM would argue for a slightly less amped solution anyway. I think that errant vort max (like it sometimes has) causes the low to be a bit too far east given the set-up, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is there a brief way to explain how those are read? Column on the left shows qpf.....last 2-3 numbers for 6 hour period. Middle column shows lift and wind both vector and velocity. Column on the right are temps..first 2 the bl, next ones H8, last H 7 roughly. So if you see 009795 all are aob freezing. 019795 means bl of +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 MET snow numbers show something for the first time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Column on the left shows qpf.....last 2-3 numbers for 6 hour period. Middle column shows lift and wind both vector and velocity. Column on the right are temps..first 2 the bl, next ones H8, last H 7 roughly. So if you see 009795 all are aob freezing. 019795 means bl of +1. Thanks Looks like our area could swing either way with accums...nam appears to be ideal as u were saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 TT--where does that put them relative to earlier? Eh, not thrilled by the NAMs sfc positions relative to the dynamics aloft - I suspect the actual sfc low track will be tucked closer in to the coast than this 00z run. This is striking me somewhat similar to the Dec 2005 event... The model(s) are focusing on a Cape H detonation site ...which may be initially, but as the wind max aloft careen N of there, the thickness gradient packs tightest about 50 miles ESE of NYC, and we see the low is about 200 miles farther out to sea than that... Not right. The low will tend to track along that greatest gradient, particularly when there is that much mechanical lift riding directly over top. The UVV will be focused along that axis and the low will maybe be tilted slightly east to west, but will be close to where the UVV is maximizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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