HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yes, for October, this is once in a lifetime on average. If many interior spots do see 8-12" of snow, that's never happened in over 100 years of records at a lot of sites. But rare storms can happen in just a few years...just look at NW NJ...they had never seen an Oct 2008 before and now they'll see it again just 3 years later. We still have to get it verify, but its looking like a 1 in 100 year storm right now. People will undoubtedly bring up climate change etc if this comes to fruition. It seems to me from everything I've read the past three days is that this is shaping up to be a potentially historic October snow storm obviously due to an ideal set of circumstances. Keeping in mind that major, anomalous, coastal storms in October do occur (1991 Halloween Nor'Easter comes to mind) it would be interesting to look back and see how many potential "major" near misses we've had over the past 100 years. Odds are that one had to come along and we're all just lucky it's in our adult life times. Pretty cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Has Maine ever had big October snows? Mtns maybe, But not here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 fixed I'm not staying up that late, lol. I have a Numerical Analysis Quiz in the morning! Sorry OT but needed to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's getting punted east at 45. SREF ftl? NAM ftl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's getting punted east at 45. SREF ftl? Eastern snow bomb this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Eastern snow bomb this run. Keep going...don't stop there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It looks like it may be a little flatter and slightly more east than 18z, but the NAM will fluctuate given how the model is designed. I wouldn't really sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah, its east, but still hits most areas pretty good...esp eastern areas. I'm kind of glad it didn't trend further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Eastern snow bomb this run. I think there was a wooly mammoth at GON the last time they got hit with heavy snow in October. Will this become known as the trick or treat storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Absolutely smoked down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It looks to me that the nam is having convective feedback issues on the 0z run. It develops an erroneous vortmax, very slight vortmax, but still there, plus on the pressure field you can see the 1008mb contour elongated out to sea towards a precipitation maximum at 42 hours. This is definitely telling me that this solution should be thrown out and let's wait for the GFS to get the real answer! Nice catch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think there was a wooly mammoth at GON the last time they got hit with heavy snow in October. Will this become known as the trick or treat storm? I remember trick or treating as a young child in NJ during a snowstorm. I want to say around 1954? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think I'll take the Euro Ensembles, GFS ensembles, and the SREF probs over 1 run of the NAM lol I would seriously pay money for a Tip monologue right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For people in SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I remember trick or treating as a young child in NJ during a snowstorm. I want to say around 1954? Where in Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A little less amplified and east of 18z. It's not as drastic as the low placement on the 45hr prog indicates. Looks like there was a little convective feedback in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Absolutely smoked down here Endless Summer goes right to Endless Winter Autumn? Who needs it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS could easily go west, so I wouldn't sweat the NAM if I were up in NNE and western NE. It's possible we have reached that point where models back off a trend (or at least slow down the trend) and wobble around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 An enormous ht for eastern areas but arguably outside the model's useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Where in Jersey? Teaneck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like snow down in BWI and DCA again this run? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Alright....I'll catch you guys in the morning...here's to good model runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah can someone explain to me how the NAM is so far SE and yet the SREF's (aren't they related to the NAM?) are a nice hit for alot of New england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think there was a wooly mammoth at GON the last time they got hit with heavy snow in October. Will this become known as the trick or treat storm? We have that Wooly Mammoth in our Museum, perhaps he comes alive Sat. I will let you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A little less amplified and east of 18z. It's not as drastic as the low placement on the 45hr prog indicates. Looks like there was a little convective feedback in there. Agree, It was pointed out at 42 and you can see it developed another max hence the tug east some, SREFS were more telling of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Teaneck. Cool. I lived in Morris County for three years back in the 90's. Okay--I'm out. I hope to wake up to many pages of high-five posts as the rest of the 00 suite roles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah can someone explain to me how the NAM is so far SE and yet the SREF's (aren't they related to the NAM?) are a nice hit for alot of New england. It's a suite of different mesoscale models so it's not exactly like a group of NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think it will end up somewhere in btw the GFS/Euro & NAM.. good for everyone.. we will all be happy come Sunday.. how do you like that for a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's a suite of different mesoscale models so it's not exactly like a group of NAMs. Oh okay. Sorry just trying to learn...so they aren't really related at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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