snowman21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sounds like a Noreaster27 post, seriously. Shocking this is coming from someone responsible for forecasting for the entire CWA......You can bet that Bill Goodman would not have written such a piece of garbage. Now, now, let's wait and see how things shake out. It's pretty easy to be an armchair meteorologist that doesn't have to worry about busts or get scored on their W/W/A verification. I personally didn't find anything objectionable about their reasoning despite everyone wanting them to "weenie out." Emotions are clearly running high in these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Add this one for yourself too. I knew Jerry wasn't kidding when he called for 340" here this go round. A 30+" October is a good launching pad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The last four times we've had measurable snow in Oct here we've cleared 100+" for the season. Then again, you did the last 4 times you didn't have measurable October snows, too....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll bite for a prelim map... Heavenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What model is this? Is that green blob on the Pit a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Waiting to hear if BDL measured..... so far just a big ol T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Then again, you did the last 4 times you didn't have measurable October snows, too....... Shhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What model is this? I believe it is a specific member of the gfs ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What model is this? It's one of the 18z GEFS members. I just wanted to stir the weenies a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm looking over the GFS and it's still.....just crazy to be seeing what the model is spitting out. For the interior...good lord. There seems to be a good chance that the 700 low, back bent warm front or pivot point may lie across SNE. If that happens...and with this high theta-e air being forced into the atmosphere at a slantwise angle, then squeezed out by deformation and frontogenesis...look out. We don't have a source region full of warmer and more moist air in the winter, like we do now. However, we have a winter like mid level which will make it very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's one of the 18z GEFS members. I just wanted to stir the weenies a little more. this stirred my weenie big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We're going to break the 1000 post point before the NAM finishes. Should we start a fresh Saturday one which will likely get us through the 12z run (or at least to the 12z run)? It will probably get to be pretty frenzied, so none of this idle banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm looking over the GFS and it's still.....just crazy to be seeing what the model is spitting out. For the interior...good lord. There seems to be a good chance that the 700 low, back bent warm front or pivot point may lie across SNE. If that happens...and with this high theta-e air being forced into the atmosphere at a slantwise angle, then squeezed out by deformation and frontogenesis...look out. We don't have a source region full of warmer and more moist air in the winter, like we do now. However, we have a winter like mid level which will make it very interesting. you don't even want to look at the CSI site for the 18 Z NAM, probably the sickest slant wise ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this stirred my weenie big time 18z NAM...I saw that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is that green blob on the Pit a good thing? Yeah if you don't mind not being able to find your house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Now, now, let's wait and see how things shake out. It's pretty easy to be an armchair meteorologist that doesn't have to worry about busts or get scored on their W/W/A verification. I personally didn't find anything objectionable about their reasoning despite everyone wanting them to "weenie out." Emotions are clearly running high in these threads. Some of us unemotionally broke it down. It is 33 at my house with accumulating snow. I am approaching 1 inch, first time ever for me in Oct. my leaves are full of snow, not falling. The reasoning because it never happened before in spite of hard science is bad science. No emotion just fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 you don't even want to look at the CSI site for the 18 Z NAM, probably the sickest slant wise ever. The H6-H8 frontogenesis on there looks like a black hole opened up over the S coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Add this one for yourself too. Is that a winter totals map? Lol. This is too much to process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some of us unemotionally broke it down. It is 33 at my house with accumulating snow. I am approaching 1 inch, first time ever for me in Oct. my leaves are full of snow, not falling. The reasoning because it never happened before in spite of hard science is bad science. No emotion just fact. This is really anomolous and they dont' know what to do. It's like the "data error" from Boxing Day. GYX discussion at 730pm was just shocking. Like nothing is happening at all on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z NAM...I saw that too. 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Now, now, let's wait and see how things shake out. It's pretty easy to be an armchair meteorologist that doesn't have to worry about busts or get scored on their W/W/A verification. I personally didn't find anything objectionable about their reasoning despite everyone wanting them to "weenie out." Emotions are clearly running high in these threads. Any idea what the biggest October snow was in Norfolk at the coop? Biggest I can find is 9.5" in 1987 but haven't had the time to look through all the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 you don't even want to look at the CSI site for the 18 Z NAM, probably the sickest slant wise ever. Probably vertical..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The H6-H8 frontogenesis on there looks like a black hole opened up over the S coast. I did the NAM today on my Tandy, hacked NCEP, what do you think? Trop fold stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is really anomolous and they dont' know what to do. It's like the "data error" from Boxing Day. GYX discussion at 730pm was just shocking. Like nothing is happening at all on Saturday. The data error was classic. It reminded me of the Tom Clancy novel where the computer virus brings down wall street so all the transactions were lost so no one knew how much many anyone had. The solution? Pretend the day never happened and start over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS February 2001 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREF in 25 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 February 2001 redux? That would take 18.5" here...lol. I'll prob take the under. But yeah the max axis of snow looks similar...a suburb storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS would be the biggest ctease ever here, and most likely at Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ridiculous. gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ridiculous. gfs. Congrats on another Noel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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