weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is extreme, expect extreme conditions, super cold upper air, wind even farts NNE the CP flips. I distinctly remember a storm in Mid Novie , maybe 87 when mets were saying the water is too warm, rain on the CP, well how did that workout. By the way it got run over by posts Scoter posted the link but LOL to Mark Rosenthal getting lost in an Apple Orchard in Newton. He was one of the Mets saying it the water was too warm. I liked him though, good met, bad sense of direction. And yes MPM gave him a new name Scoter He's turned into a full blown hippie....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 He's turned into a full blown hippie....lol Yea saw that, Pete in twenty years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I know I have a 1/2 already and it's ripping pretty good. The whole trees thing has me baffled, past peak? LOL, shed leaves? Somebody needs a botany course. Peak is a color term, if the high winds of Tuesday would not bring the leaves down, they are not ready. Are you referring to the OKX AFD? I really have no problem with what was being said. They wre providing their rationale for the current forecast. At this time range, they can reassess for the morning forecast and adjust with new data. But, that's just me. Now if he were saying something about the amount of qpf on the other hand, I'd be outraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 BOX needs to catch up...OKX has rain/snow for Saturday for Joe....and up in central mass I just have rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I've never liked climo as a rationale for a short range forecast. The anomalous events are the ones that cause the greatest damage, greatest loss of life, and the greatest disruption. Warm ground has been bunked countless times. If it snows hard...with those type of mid-level temperatures it will stick. Buffalo got 2 ft of snow with a 62 degree lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The October snowfall record at ORH is 7.5"...all fell in one storm on Oct 10, 1979...both the single storm and the monthly totals are in jeopardy. ORH will probably already have ~2" after tonight making it even easier to break the record with the weekend storm. But I'm starting to think they won't need today's snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 OMG this is unreal... history coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The October snowfall record at ORH is 7.5"...all fell in one storm on Oct 10, 1979...both the single storm and the monthly totals are in jeopardy. ORH will probably already have ~2" after tonight making it even easier to break the record with the weekend storm. But I'm starting to think they won't need today's snow anyway. This scares/excites me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is extreme, expect extreme conditions, super cold upper air, wind even farts NNE the CP flips. I distinctly remember a storm in Mid Novie , maybe 87 when mets were saying the water is too warm, rain on the CP, well how did that workout. By the way it got run over by posts Scoter posted the link but LOL to Mark Rosenthal getting lost in an Apple Orchard in Newton. He was one of the Mets saying the water was too warm. I liked him though, good met, bad sense of direction. And yes MPM gave him a new name Scoter Lol. This storm is fascinating on many levels--I'm going to be hardpressed to keep up with the back and forth of you and others who are better versed on this. Should be a learning experience for veterans and novices alike. SN+ w/big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does it look like a westward trend is coming still? Its been stated that its a red flag when the GEFS and SREF members are all west of the OP...whats people's feelings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The earliest 6"+ storm on record at BDL is the Veterans Day '87 storm. 7.8" then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does it look like a westward trend is coming still? Its been stated that its a red flag when the GEFS and SREF members are all west of the OP...whats people's feelings? I could see it bumping a little further west. But inside of 48h, its difficult to get major jumps...also the synoptic pattern will limit how far west this can go due to a progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does it look like a westward trend is coming still? Its been stated that its a red flag when the GEFS and SREF members are all west of the OP...whats people's feelings? That :weenie: are flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 18z GEFS ensembles are concerning at first---but I guess when you consider the resolution/etc they aren't as bad as you would think. I have trouble believing the tracks on three of the members which are skewing the mean--and taking the surface low up along the Mid Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does it look like a westward trend is coming still? Its been stated that its a red flag when the GEFS and SREF members are all west of the OP...whats people's feelings? Wait, do you want it to trend west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I could see it bumping a little further west. But inside of 48h, its difficult to get major jumps...also the synoptic pattern will limit how far west this can go due to a progressive flow. Just curious because I have family in CT and am living in NNE and I am trying to coordinate things...Need to know the chance of getting appreciable snowfall in VT and then again in coastal CT..westward trends could impact the snowfall in both places obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wait, do you want it to trend west? personally yes because I want some snow in VT haha got shutout today...not even a flake lol not to be selfish or anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does it look like a westward trend is coming still? Its been stated that its a red flag when the GEFS and SREF members are all west of the OP...whats people's feelings? I feel for you! asking the same question 7 or 8 times. If you just read the thread you will see that some folks think it could come a bit more west but no one knows for sure. Up there you will likely be on the edge even if it comes further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 18z GEFS ensembles are concerning at first---but I guess when you consider the resolution/etc they aren't as bad as you would think. I have trouble believing the tracks on three of the members which are skewing the mean--and taking the surface low up along the Mid Atlantic coast. It seems as if all of them have some precip thrown back into NNE..unlike the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sorry if this has already been posted but Mt. Holly already has a snow map up. http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I love you too. LOL. You only hurt the ones you love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol. This storm is fascinating on many levels--I'm going to be hardpressed to keep up with the back and forth of you and others who are better versed on this. Should be a learning experience for veterans and novices alike. SN+ w/big flakes. You and me both... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Kevin may have to just go fully nude from now until Sunday if the 21z srefs increase probs anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm totally balls to the wall for Saturday. I'm not sure what OKX is looking at for their interior zones... we had snow accumulation on the roads in the valleys tonight after 30 minutes of snow lol. In fact this looks colder than some of our normal winter storms! I didn't agree with the OKX discussion at all this afternoon. They listed reasons for why they don't think there will be snow accumulations. One of them was that it's never happened before this time of year (nice). The second was that no model shows the surface temperature at 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I didn't agree with the OKX discussion at all this afternoon. They listed reasons for why they don't think there will be snow accumulations. One of them was that it's never happened before this time of year (nice). The second was that no model shows the surface temperature at 32 degrees. Get the f outta here - they didn't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I could see it bumping a little further west. But inside of 48h, its difficult to get major jumps...also the synoptic pattern will limit how far west this can go due to a progressive flow. Believe it or not ...this is somewhat of a needle threader when you consider that...time needs to be perfect and it's pretty amazing to see the scope of the rifle focusing in on the temporal bull's eye here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Get the f outta here - they didn't! 1. THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT WHERE SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW HAS NEVER BEEN OBSERVED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN PER THE 1ST ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS. EVEN INLAND...SCANS OF THE COOP DATA SHOWS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF. ... 3. LASTLY...I COULD NOT FIND SUPPORT OF SFC TEMPS BEING BELOW FREEZING IN ANY OF THE PROFILES I EXAMINED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I didn't agree with the OKX discussion at all this afternoon. They listed reasons for why they don't think there will be snow accumulations. One of them was that it's never happened before this time of year (nice). The second was that no model shows the surface temperature at 32 degrees. Yeah agreed. The storm may fall short of expectations but not for the reasons they listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its pretty much time to call for a massive snowstorm for interior SNE. OMG! I don't think I've ever seen you make a balls to the wall call like this!!! This carries weight. You leaning wet Tippy style blue snow bomb or fluffbomb like the stuff that shakes out of MRG's hair when he headbangs? Real nice Kevin. For the love of all thats sacred..can you please, please not focus on where the models place the qpf. You don't focus on that..look at the pattern and the setup I don't think I'll be able to stand this QPF thing all season long. It's lkike having a crazy aunt wrapped in a shawl asking you the same question over and over and over again. All the worrying about qpf days out only to get slammed nearly every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It seems as if all of them have some precip thrown back into NNE..unlike the OP Their resolution, or lack thereof, may be the reason why they are throwing so much QPF back to the NW whereas the higher res op is "tighter" with a stronger gradient for this particular system. That doesn't explain the few western WRF SREF members though. You're in LSC so you get shadowed seemingly every which way although a due northerly wind isn't bad there. We'll just have to wait and see over the next 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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