OKpowdah Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is still west of the op. Huge red flag for a continued west trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Man, the 18z gefs members are like all WEST! One even brings the 850 0C over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 hey coastal, can you explain this? what's the kicker mechanism? and would you not favor an even more west track with such an amped up low and very warm SSTs? thanks! (obviously hoping 0Z models hold at BM) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/avn48.html There's a kicker in the northern plains that will be giving this system a boot from behind. In order to slow a system down and have it really amp up, you want a huge ridge out there and instead we have an embedded shortwave in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/avn48.html There's a kicker in the northern plains that will be giving this system a boot from behind. In order to slow a system down and have it really amp up, you want a huge ridge out there and instead we have an embedded shortwave in there. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Mets, what do you think for Torrington, CT at 1k this weekend? I'm going home for the first time for a weekend since August, and I want to bring the snow with me also, Ryan...you looked like a kid in a candy store in Norfolk! Truly a special place up there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Roads are surprisingly slippery here in west Hartford/Farmington. Had about 1/3 inch on my car too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Sorry if its been discussed already... but 18z UKIE looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah well I don't think this is going to rip up E MA or anything. I suppose anythings possible, but its pretty late in the game to get that far of a bump. I actually think that euro prog from a few days ago might not be a bad final outcome? Perhaps something like that. We'll see what 00z does. I wish I was in your shoes..lol, but if I can get 3-4" of paste with 50+mph winds...I'll consider it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I actually think that euro prog from a few days ago might not be a bad final outcome? Perhaps something like that. We'll see what 00z does. I wish I was in your shoes..lol, but if I can get 3-4" of paste with 50+mph winds...I'll consider it a win. I want snow on the field vs delaware in towson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I want snow on the field vs delaware in towson BC's at College Park MD this weekend too for a game at 3 on SAT...could b a good one to watch on nesn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its pretty much time to call for a massive snowstorm for interior SNE. :snowman: :snowman: Shot hour!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm totally balls to the wall for Saturday. I'm not sure what OKX is looking at for their interior zones... we had snow accumulation on the roads in the valleys tonight after 30 minutes of snow lol. In fact this looks colder than some of our normal winter storms! Barring a sizable shift west it's game on for a 5-10" snowstorm for many interior areas... possibly higher lollis in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 sounds like EMA not getting much? Rain? everyone is talking C, W zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm totally balls to the wall for Saturday. I'm not sure what OKX is looking at for their interior zones... we had snow accumulation on the roads in the valleys tonight after 30 minutes of snow lol. In fact this looks colder than some of our normal winter storms! Barring a sizable shift west it's game on for a 5-10" snowstorm for many interior areas... possibly higher lollis in the hills. Did Kevin pay a visit to the studio and write this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm totally balls to the wall for Saturday. I'm not sure what OKX is looking at for their interior zones... we had snow accumulation on the roads in the valleys tonight after 30 minutes of snow lol. In fact this looks colder than some of our normal winter storms! Barring a sizable shift west it's game on for a 5-10" snowstorm for many interior areas... possibly higher lollis in the hills. Big ? though..Is that 6-12 of paste for all of us or 29 and drier powder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm totally balls to the wall for Saturday. I'm not sure what OKX is looking at for their interior zones... we had snow accumulation on the roads in the valleys tonight after 30 minutes of snow lol. In fact this looks colder than some of our normal winter storms! Barring a sizable shift west it's game on for a 5-10" snowstorm for many interior areas... possibly higher lollis in the hills. Nice early call on this one. Congrats! You were warning of the possible west shift early, and seemed to be the most confident of it. Heavy heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm totally balls to the wall for Saturday. I'm not sure what OKX is looking at for their interior zones... we had snow accumulation on the roads in the valleys tonight after 30 minutes of snow lol. In fact this looks colder than some of our normal winter storms! Barring a sizable shift west it's game on for a 5-10" snowstorm for many interior areas... possibly higher lollis in the hills. If it's coming down..of course it will stick to roads. Look what it did to NJ in October 2008. People have a big fetish for saying how it's too warm to stick and all that jazz, but once again..today debunks that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 :snowman: :snowman: Shot hour!! wow pouring a chivas right now, congrats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 2011 continues to impress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 wow pouring a chivas right now, congrats all Snow down to the tropics of Fairfield, CT! Saturday: A chance of rain between 11am and 2pm, then rain and snow. High near 43. Breezy, with a northeast wind between 11 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Saturday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after midnight. Low around 32. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 21 mph decreasing to between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm totally balls to the wall for Saturday. I'm not sure what OKX is looking at for their interior zones... we had snow accumulation on the roads in the valleys tonight after 30 minutes of snow lol. In fact this looks colder than some of our normal winter storms! Barring a sizable shift west it's game on for a 5-10" snowstorm for many interior areas... possibly higher lollis in the hills. I know I have a 1/2 already and it's ripping pretty good. The whole trees thing has me baffled, past peak? LOL, shed leaves? Somebody needs a botany course. Peak is a color term, if the high winds of Tuesday would not bring the leaves down, they are not ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 sounds like EMA not getting much? Rain? everyone is talking C, W zones. The most snow ever in Boston during Oct going by BOS is 1.1 inches. Keeping this in context reminds you that if they get 1.4, it's an extreme event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The most snow ever in Boston during Oct going by BOS is 1.1 inches. Keeping this in context reminds you that if they get 1.4, it's an extreme event. This could be a situation where you get 5" of paste and Logan airport gets 1.8" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 sounds like EMA not getting much? Rain? everyone is talking C, W zones. Not really all that surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The most snow ever in Boston during Oct going by BOS is 1.1 inches. Keeping this in context reminds you that if theyget 1.4, it's an extreme event. Yeah I think people need to realize what time of year this is. This is such an anomalous event coming up. It will depend on storm track, but as always this time of year...it's good to keep expectations more reasonable near the coast. It's easy to look at 850 temps and get pumped, but we have 56F SST's to the east. But, when winds go north...that's when it will likely flip. We could potentially have a 4-6 hr backlash from hell with the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah I think people need to realize what time of year this is. This is such an anomalous event coming up. It will depend on storm track, but as always this time of year...it's good to keep expectations more reasonable near the coast. It's easy to look at 850 temps and get pumped, but we have 56F SST's to the east. But, when winds go north...that's when it will likely flip. We could potentially have a 4-6 hr backlash from hell with the winds. still sounds like fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Any chance of a radio show tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 still sounds like fun! I think Will is right with the gradient. There are gonna be some weird...weird things going on with this storm. Phil might have another Noel redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think Will is right with the gradient. There are gonna be some weird...weird things going on with this storm. Phil might have another Noel redux. With the warm SSTs, Phil might be able to rip some hurricane force gusts out of this, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The most snow ever in Boston during Oct going by BOS is 1.1 inches. Keeping this in context reminds you that if they get 1.4, it's an extreme event. This is extreme, expect extreme conditions, super cold upper air, wind even farts NNE the CP flips. I distinctly remember a storm in Mid Novie , maybe 87 when mets were saying the water is too warm, rain on the CP, well how did that workout. By the way it got run over by posts Scoter posted the link but LOL to Mark Rosenthal getting lost in an Apple Orchard in Newton. He was one of the Mets saying the water was too warm. I liked him though, good met, bad sense of direction. And yes MPM gave him a new name Scoter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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