Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Its pretty much time to call for a massive snowstorm for interior SNE. In terms of confidence..are you fully clothed, partially clothed, only wearing socks and nothing else..or fully naked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We all know how this story ends. Feels like a rule: perfect GFS track > 48 hours out with such amped systems is not good for areas south and east... amped dynamics will invariably dig the trough deeper and bring a track closer to the coast. Can anyone explain: 1) What's the kicker mechanism preventing this from hugging the coast even more closely? 2) How might very warm SSTs impact the baroclinic zone and eventual track? Could models be underestimating this effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In terms of confidence..are you fully clothed, partially clothed, only wearing socks and nothing else..or fully naked? Its getting pretty close to not realistically missing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Its getting pretty close to not realistically missing us. Elaborate on "massive" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 They nailed the axis of hvy snow today from NY state down to N CT up to Mass/NH border Yeah they did well with this burst and heaviest stuff to your north...remember when I said they showed two parts? They got that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Its getting pretty close to not realistically missing us. You look like you're in a great spot..lol. You and Kevin and points west. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Its pretty much time to call for a massive snowstorm for interior SNE. That sounds chilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Elaborate on "massive" 6"+...for October standards is def massive. Someone could get quite a bit more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You look like you're in a great spot..lol. You and Kevin and points west. Congrats. How about me and Steve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 6"+...for October standards is def massive. Someone could get quite a bit more than that. You leaning wet Tippy style blue snow bomb or fluffbomb like the stuff that shakes out of MRG's hair when he headbangs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 How about me and Steve? You are probably gonna flip to snow easily so long as it doesn't come too close. It may take a little longer as some marine air may make it in before the storm comes....after all...SST's are warm. However you should flip when the heavy stuff comes I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Coating and it's starting to stick to the road...wow. Ripping aggregates right now. EDIT: Wrong thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You leaning wet Tippy style blue snow bomb or fluffbomb like the stuff that shakes out of MRG's hair when he headbangs? I'll be in your hot tub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You are probably gonna flip to snow easily so long as it doesn't come too close. It may take a little longer as some marine air may make it in before the storm comes....after all...SST's are warm. However you should flip when the heavy stuff comes I would think. Thanks Scott. Eitherway, this will be pretty exciting for many folks. Looking forward to the possibilities of a nice early season storm for someone to boast about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'll be in your hot tub. LOL>.I may have to fire that mofo up ..Had the temp turned way down all summer and torch fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 They nailed the axis of hvy snow today from NY state down to N CT up to Mass/NH border I think the NAM had pretty much stopped the QPF in its tracks at the northern border of MA--just eeking me in. I may be off on this, but I think the NAM had none of the qpf that's in VT and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 LOL>.I may have to fire that mofo up ..Had the temp turned way down all summer and torch fall. I'll tell ya...it really is almost mind boggling when you look at everything. Enjoy it. I don't see how it will miss. I suppose it could come more west, but that has a limit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think the NAM had pretty much stopped the QPF in its tracks at the northern border of MA--just eeking me in. I may be off on this, but I think the NAM had none of the qpf that's in VT and NH. For the love of all thats sacred..can you please, please not focus on where the models place the qpf. You don't focus on that..look at the pattern and the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'll tell ya...it really is almost mind boggling when you look at everything. Enjoy it. I don't see how it will miss. I suppose it could come more west, but that has a limit too. In all seriousness I know you pull for Ray typically... but I sincerely hope we all get crushed by this one. These only happen once in a lifetime in October for most of us..so we all really should benefit. Here's to widespread 12-20 for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'll tell ya...it really is almost mind boggling when you look at everything. Enjoy it. I don't see how it will miss. I suppose it could come more west, but that has a limit too. If it bumps more west, it will probably only hurt the CP by exposing them to a longer period of ENE/NE winds...the interior should be pretty golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 They nailed the axis of hvy snow today from NY state down to N CT up to Mass/NH border For the love of all thats sacred..can you please, please not focus on where the models place the qpf. You don't focus on that..look at the pattern and the setup LOL. I'm responding to that. Is that where the heaviest axis is? I think it went 60 miles above the border........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In all seriousness I know you pull for Ray typically... but I sincerely hope we all get crushed by this one. These only happen once in a lifetime in October for most of us..so we all really should benefit. Here's to widespread 12-20 for all It might be the case--some with paste, some with powder. You should fire up the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If it bumps more west, it will probably only hurt the CP by exposing them to a longer period of ENE/NE winds...the interior should be pretty golden. Yeah you guys are all set I think. I was talking a big bump west, but that's why I said it has a limit because you guys probably still look good even if a 40-50 mile jog, and it does have a limit thanks to upstream s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah you guys are all set I think. I was talking a big bump west, but that's why I said it has a limit because you guys probably still look good even if a 40-50 mile jog, and it does have a limit thanks to upstream s/w. Yeah well I don't think this is going to rip up E MA or anything. I suppose anythings possible, but its pretty late in the game to get that far of a bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Man, the 18z gefs members are like all WEST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You look like you're in a great spot..lol. You and Kevin and points west. Congrats. Dang. In all seriousness, I wish I could lock up just about every model right now, especially the 18z nam...nothing can move west though or I could deal with rain for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If things held pretty close to where they are progged right now is a few inches a reasonable call in Brookline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If it bumps more west, it will probably only hurt the CP by exposing them to a longer period of ENE/NE winds...the interior should be pretty golden. Sweet. I feel pretty confident in 4" actually. If everything comes together perfectly, however, I could see 8-12". But right now I am confident in at least 4". I think most tv forecasts were reasonable tonight mentioning the potential for several inches and less on the coast, but no specifics 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If things held pretty close to where they are progged right now is a few inches a reasonable call in Brookline? Yeah it would rip pretty good in the latter part of the storm there when the wind goes more northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'll tell ya...it really is almost mind boggling when you look at everything. Enjoy it. I don't see how it will miss. I suppose it could come more west, but that has a limit too. hey coastal, can you explain this? what's the kicker mechanism? and would you not favor an even more west track with such an amped up low and very warm SSTs? thanks! (obviously hoping 0Z models hold at BM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.