dendrite Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GEFS crushes my backyard. Dayum. I wonder if there is even a stray member that turns me over to a mix/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Reads like rationalizations for not believing what the models are spitting out. We'll see who wins, climo or snow. I got my money on snow, a storm as modeled will snow where it wants to snow. Reasons are rationalizations. Plus, they can get another (and more) full suite of models to review to see if they need to reconsider that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ensembles are west near the BM, but it is tough to tell because the ensemble mean has a large contour of low pressure...meaning members are west. They are warmer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ensembles are west near the BM, but it is tough to tell because the ensemble mean has a large contour of low pressure...meaning members are west. They are warmer too. Most imp thing is..where were the Euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GEFS crushes my backyard. Dayum. I wonder if there is even a stray member that turns me over to a mix/rain. Amped enough for ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ensembles are west near the BM, but it is tough to tell because the ensemble mean has a large contour of low pressure...meaning members are west. They are warmer too. 1.00"+ QPF for me on the mean. Congrats powderfreak? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Get naked everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 1.00"+ QPF for me on the mean. Congrats powderfreak? lol Yeah like we told the nrn and western folk...this keeps going west..don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Amped enough for ya? Yikes. Let's move that beack east at 00z please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Get naked everyone If this thing comes west 50 miles I'll get 8" at home lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Most imp thing is..where were the Euro ens? Near and just southeast of the BM. You really don't want it coming west, but it still keeps heading that way. 00z will be interesting. It can only go so far. I suppose the euro from a few days ago could happen with a track just se of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Near and just southeast of the BM. You really don't want it coming west, but it still keeps heading that way. 00z will be interesting. It can only go so far. I suppose the euro from a few days ago could happen with a track just se of ACK. Good point, seems to develop pretty late in the game so there's not much time before the kicker shoves it east anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Those srefs are just awesome. Like 40% chance of 8" and 65% chance of 4". Are you kidding me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Near and just southeast of the BM. You really don't want it coming west, but it still keeps heading that way. 00z will be interesting. It can only go so far. I suppose the euro from a few days ago could happen with a track just se of ACK. If that track happened..where would the rain snow line setup before crashing SE? Maybe PVD to PYM to Norwich? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GEFS crushes my backyard. Dayum. I wonder if there is even a stray member that turns me over to a mix/rain. There are some nice things there. Of great significance to my untrained eye is that it seems to maintain more of a northerly component on exit. Obviously, this will be significant for those out west and possibly problematic for some folks closer where mixing could ensue. But, it almost looks like it could be winner for many folks--alhtough there would end up be a dry slot issue to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If that track happened..where would the rain snow line setup before crashing SE? Maybe PVD to PYM to Norwich? The euro ensemble track? Well it would probably start as a mix even where you are, then go to snow rather quickly. RA/SN would probably hang just west of me for a while then crash se. But this time of year things are warm, so a track that would normally give snow...has the chance of more rain so you don't want it too much farther west. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah like we told the nrn and western folk...this keeps going west..don't worry. We all know how this story ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The euro ensemble track? Well it would probably start as a mix even where you are, then go to snow rather quickly. RA/SN would probably hang just west of me for a while then crash se. But this time of year things are warm, so a track that would normally give snow...has the chance of more rain so you don't want it too much farther west. . Those sref probs are nuts..I mean 40% probs of 8+ in Oct..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah like we told the nrn and western folk...this keeps going west..don't worry. I never doubted you TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Those sref probs are nuts..I mean 40% probs of 8+ in Oct..lol Not only is it nuts b/c it's October but this is still 60+ HR's...on the SREF...that's INSANE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We all know how this story ends. I love you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not only is it nuts b/c it's October but this is still 60+ HR's...on the SREF...that's INSANE. I've always hated the sref's..but man they nailed today's snow.. NAM and sref's took everything else to the cleaners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I wonder how many poeple will stay up for th euro tonight. I will not be among them, but I'll certainly make it through the NAM. GFS? Pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z gefs thats what I'm talkin about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I've always hated the sref's..but man they nailed today's snow.. NAM and sref's took everything else to the cleaners The NAM and SREFs can be a deadly combo...just like NAM/Euro. I've never been a big fan of SREFs wither but they can be very valuable tools when wanting to get a general idea or a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NAM and SREFs can be a deadly combo...just like NAM/Euro. I've never been a big fan of SREFs wither but they can be very valuable tools when wanting to get a general idea or a mean. They were a little too cold at times, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Its pretty much time to call for a massive snowstorm for interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 They were a little too cold at times, however. They nailed the axis of hvy snow today from NY state down to N CT up to Mass/NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 They were a little too cold at times, however. Yeah although I think many times they usually come in as colder than other models so just have to take that into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Starting to get excited for Central/Western MA.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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