wxsniss Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A little uneasy (here in Boston metro) with GFS having a close-to-perfect track this far out... shifts further west are definitely still possible. Can anyone comment on: 1) Mechanism for east turn: what's the kicker preventing this from hugging the coast even closer? 2) Role of very warm SSTs on track: can this effect baroclinic zone and track of low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 WSW needs to go ASAP...people have no idea. Most people thought rain showers on Saturday. I mean...our school cancelled events and moved them to Saturday night. People have NO CLUE. That said, hopefully models stay where they are tonight. It's perfect right now, but we are 48 hours out. How far west do you guys think it could move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ORH and south and east will be lifting fallen branches off their powerlines. GC folks will be getting our brooms and sweeping a few inches of pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 WSW needs to go ASAP...people have no idea. Most people thought rain showers on Saturday. I mean...our school cancelled events and moved them to Saturday night. People have NO CLUE. That said, hopefully models stay where they are tonight. It's perfect right now, but we are 48 hours out. How far west do you guys think it could move? relax relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ORH and south and east will be lifting fallen branches off their powerlines. GC folks will be getting our brooms and sweeping a few inches of pixie dust. We'll end up jackpotting. Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 WSW needs to go ASAP...people have no idea. Most people thought rain showers on Saturday. I mean...our school cancelled events and moved them to Saturday night. People have NO CLUE. That said, hopefully models stay where they are tonight. It's perfect right now, but we are 48 hours out. How far west do you guys think it could move? I called my grandmother this afternoon around 3 PM and asked her if she watched the weather and sahe said yes then I asked her what have you heard about Saturday and she said windy. I told her we look to get a big snow storm...she said Oh God not not this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 the 18z NAM has -75 ubar/sec in the SG area in PVD lol NAM went nuke. It has TAN getting like 14-16". LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 WSW needs to go ASAP...people have no idea. Most people thought rain showers on Saturday. I mean...our school cancelled events and moved them to Saturday night. People have NO CLUE. That said, hopefully models stay where they are tonight. It's perfect right now, but we are 48 hours out. How far west do you guys think it could move? No need to do it now. We have a run tonight to fine-tune things. But, congrats east of 91! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 As Poison sings...TALK DIRTY TO ME BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING OF A WIDE SWATH OF 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH UP TO 8 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS THE WORCESTER HILLS. IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS SPECIFIC AMOUNTS IN ANY DETAIL. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS OF ENOUGH WET SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS AND ASSOCIATED POWER OUTAGES...POSSIBLY EVEN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SOME ROAD BLOCKAGES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY ADD TO THE TREE DAMAGE CONCERN. GIVEN THE CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN THE INTERIOR SUBURBS OF BOSTON APPEAR TO BE MOST AT RISK. I checked out Upton which is taking the cautious road? LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... OTHER THAN THE NAM...NWP SYSTEMS APPEAR IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON PASSING CLOSE TO THE 40/70 CLIMATOLOGICAL BENCHMARK. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. A FAIRLY CLASSIC WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR OUR REGION IF IT WERE NOT OCTOBER. 09Z SREF...12Z GEFS AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE INCLUDED IN THE LOCAL FORECAST EXCEPT FOR ALL ETA MEMBERS OF THE SREF WERE DISCOUNTED AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. PTYPE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IS THE MAJOR FORECAST ISSUE...THUS THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN MESOSCALE DETAILS. HERE`S MY THINKING... 1. THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT WHERE SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW HAS NEVER BEEN OBSERVED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN PER THE 1ST ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS. EVEN INLAND...SCANS OF THE COOP DATA SHOWS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF. 2. MOST PCPN IS IN THE AFTN AND SOLAR RADIATION WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. 3. LASTLY...I COULD NOT FIND SUPPORT OF SFC TEMPS BEING BELOW FREEZING IN ANY OF THE PROFILES I EXAMINED. THUS...IN COLLABORATION WITH HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK AND SURROUNDING WFO`S...WE HAVE LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION TO HIGHER INLAND ELEVATION AND ONLY ALLOWED FOR SLUSHY TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE COAST - MOST OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. AS IT STANDS NOW...ONLY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE AT LEAST 500` IF NOT 1000` SAT AFTN. ONCE THE SUN SETS THOUGH...ACCUMULATION IN THE EVENING IS LIKELY FOR THE INLAND ROADWAYS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. NO ROADWAY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND NYC. IMPACT TO TREES IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS DECIDUOUS TREES MAY EASILY SHED REMAINING LEAVES. THUS THE WEIGHT ON TREES MAY NOT BE AS BIG A PROBLEMS AS ONE MIGHT SPECULATE AS IT`S PAST PEAK COLOR FOR INLAND AREAS. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR IMPACT AS WELL AS THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (THOUGH IT`S NOT OUT OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 WSW needs to go ASAP...people have no idea. Most people thought rain showers on Saturday. I mean...our school cancelled events and moved them to Saturday night. People have NO CLUE. That said, hopefully models stay where they are tonight. It's perfect right now, but we are 48 hours out. How far west do you guys think it could move? Far enough for the Berks to be ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We'll end up jackpotting. Trust me. I'm counting on fluffy powder out here--none of this paste crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm counting on fluffy powder out here--none of this paste crap! The paste isn't really paste here now. Mid Winter by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I checked out Upton which is taking the cautious road? LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... OTHER THAN THE NAM...NWP SYSTEMS APPEAR IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON PASSING CLOSE TO THE 40/70 CLIMATOLOGICAL BENCHMARK. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. A FAIRLY CLASSIC WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR OUR REGION IF IT WERE NOT OCTOBER. 09Z SREF...12Z GEFS AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE INCLUDED IN THE LOCAL FORECAST EXCEPT FOR ALL ETA MEMBERS OF THE SREF WERE DISCOUNTED AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. PTYPE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IS THE MAJOR FORECAST ISSUE...THUS THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN MESOSCALE DETAILS. HERE`S MY THINKING... 1. THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT WHERE SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW HAS NEVER BEEN OBSERVED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN PER THE 1ST ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS. EVEN INLAND...SCANS OF THE COOP DATA SHOWS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF. 2. MOST PCPN IS IN THE AFTN AND SOLAR RADIATION WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. 3. LASTLY...I COULD NOT FIND SUPPORT OF SFC TEMPS BEING BELOW FREEZING IN ANY OF THE PROFILES I EXAMINED. THUS...IN COLLABORATION WITH HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK AND SURROUNDING WFO`S...WE HAVE LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION TO HIGHER INLAND ELEVATION AND ONLY ALLOWED FOR SLUSHY TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE COAST - MOST OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. AS IT STANDS NOW...ONLY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE AT LEAST 500` IF NOT 1000` SAT AFTN. ONCE THE SUN SETS THOUGH...ACCUMULATION IN THE EVENING IS LIKELY FOR THE INLAND ROADWAYS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. NO ROADWAY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND NYC. IMPACT TO TREES IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS DECIDUOUS TREES MAY EASILY SHED REMAINING LEAVES. THUS THE WEIGHT ON TREES MAY NOT BE AS BIG A PROBLEMS AS ONE MIGHT SPECULATE AS IT`S PAST PEAK COLOR FOR INLAND AREAS. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR IMPACT AS WELL AS THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (THOUGH IT`S NOT OUT OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES). It's well-reasoned........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm counting on fluffy powder out here--none of this paste crap! I would actually be ok with E. Ma. getting higher totals of paste and GC getting powder. I like having my power. Plenty of winter ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well even if sfc temps are like 34...even 35 it's so freaking cold aloft...and the precip rates would be sick...not sure how much melting would be taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The paste isn't really paste here now. Mid Winter by morning. I'm not referring to what we have now--I'm referring to the tree-damaging stuff their talking about out east and in CT for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 relax relax lol I know. I think with the 4am update tomorrow they will be up. If I wake up and they aren't up, I'll be pretty nervous looking at the 00z runs haha. I called my grandmother this afternoon around 3 PM and asked her if she watched the weather and sahe said yes then I asked her what have you heard about Saturday and she said windy. I told her we look to get a big snow storm...she said Oh God not not this early. Yeah...no one really knows. I saw a post on facebook that said there could be 3" of snow Saturday. I was thinking....yeah....or a lot more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 hopefully the ensembles won't be so west relative to the op at 18z... almost one of those situations where i wish the models hadn't locked into this track 40+ hours out....NAM track would be almost ideal for many also: PINGS? right now in medfield...not sure how that works, but there must be some sneaky warm layer aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm not referring to what we have now--I'm referring to the tree-damaging stuff their talking about out east and in CT for Saturday. Wet snow lasts longer..much better than powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wet snow lasts longer..much better than powder If you're trying to make a snowman. But, if you're looking for snow purity, you need fine crystals, man. ENX radar is a thing of beauty at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Only about 30% of leaves are down. Snow day Monday even though its 50F outside because we will have no power/tons of trees down? :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's well-reasoned........ Reads like rationalizations for not believing what the models are spitting out. We'll see who wins, climo or snow. I got my money on snow, a storm as modeled will snow where it wants to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If you're trying to make a snowman. But, if you're looking for snow purity, you need fine crystals, man. ENX radar is a thing of beauty at this point. Just total frontal nudity///backal too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM went nuke. It has TAN getting like 14-16". LOL. That sounds reasonable to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GEFS is almost over ACK...do not like the west trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Channel 4 favors the west trend I guess. Said rain ending as snow but mostly rain for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 That sounds reasonable to me! http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Noyes has this a rain event for anything on the coast, snow for interior and western MA, NH, VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Only about 30% of leaves are down. Snow day Monday even though its 50F outside because we will have no power/tons of trees down? :weenie: You'll porbably loose 90% of the remaining from the snow this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Channel 4 favors the west trend I guess. Said rain ending as snow but mostly rain for Saturday. CT stations all snow /mix for immed coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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