CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 congrats guys. I'm jealous and excited for you at the same time. I'll try to offer some analysis over the next few days. Well when you are ripping TSSN in a LES band...I'll be jealous.lol. Still can't quite believe the hype yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 how were the euro ensembles lots of hits? i think that unforunately we tick east from here....(or better yet i think the euro could very much crap on us at 2pm today ) .i don't like the nam not coming on board ....i'm really interested in the 0z nam tonite (because inside 48 hours it's a very useful model after last year i lost my unwavering faith in the euro....and i'm not gonna forget how the euro crapped the bed on many storms inside 84 hours last year ...like every other model i can't see the individual membes, but the mean was OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yeah i know. don't know if you remember but the euro even had a run that bombed rina out and then literally killed it in like 12 hours - not tooooo dissimilar to what actually happened really. i'd like to get this thing tucked in close because i think the wind potential is huge given the SSTs and air mass in play. I'd like to get this thing tucked in close for another reason. :snowman: 36.9/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i can't see the individual membes, but the mean was OK. Nice tides this morning. What are you thinking for winds if this does tuck in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm interested to see what the 12z GFS has. It's been so close to a smashing hit in the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well I think the euro is decent with tropicals. My rule with globals regarding tropicals, is that they can give big clues on whether a storm will intensify or weaken. A large or deep system signaled by them is usually a clue to an intense storm, while something that is rather meh looking probably means a weaker solution. That's a good rule to go by. Makes a great deal of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think the reason we are seeing this thing coming west and that it's going to be a historic life changing wx event for many of us is the fact that Rina weakend. If it had stayed strong and made more of a north move..it would have prevented our snowbomb from happening. The reason why the Euro has had this snowblitz is because it consistently weakened Diarrhena. Same with the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think the reason we are seeing this thing coming west and that it's going to be a historic life changing wx event for many of us is the fact that Rina weakend. If it had stayed strong and made more of a north move..it would have prevented our snowbomb from happening. The reason why the Euro has had this snowblitz is because it consistently weakened Diarrhena. Same with the Ukie Are you a HPC forecaster?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 gentlemen chairs and rope ready toasters in place i'm putting the board on suicide watch for the next 3 hours but prayin for snow sat nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice tides this morning. What are you thinking for winds if this does tuck in. along the E coast g 50 to 70 wouldn't be impossible at all i think if something closer to the euro or ukmet idea came to fruition, but if it remains progressive and rapidly shoots out SSE of the BM then just 25 to 40 mph type stuff. no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Are you a HPC forecaster?? I certainly should be. I just wish someone would give me the chance to work for them in the wx field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think the reason we are seeing this thing coming west and that it's going to be a historic life changing wx event for many of us is the fact that Rina weakend. If it had stayed strong and made more of a north move..it would have prevented our snowbomb from happening. The reason why the Euro has had this snowblitz is because it consistently weakened Diarrhena. Same with the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 along the E coast g 50 to 70 wouldn't be impossible at all i think if something closer to the euro or ukmet idea came to fruition, but if it remains progressive and rapidly shoots out SSE of the BM then just 25 to 40 mph type stuff. no biggie. GIve us a track across the elbow at least..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I certainly should be. I just wish someone would give me the chance to work for them in the wx field. I'll bet if you could get the head of HR for a few brews, you'd be hired. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice tides this morning. What are you thinking for winds if this does tuck in. The tucked in euro solution from a couple days ago that went over the neck of the cape had 50-60 kt winds on the cape, probably a good ballpark, but curious what phil thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GIve us a track across the elbow at least..... god no. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 god no. LOL. Haha why not? Wouldn't your winds be higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I certainly should be. I just wish someone would give me the chance to work for them in the wx field. You should be in a field... stuffed with straw and sitting on a pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i'd like to get this thing tucked in close because i think the wind potential is huge given the SSTs and air mass in play. Ok yeah...tuck it right in there on the beach for some of the interior crowd haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 along the E coast g 50 to 70 wouldn't be impossible at all i think if something closer to the euro or ukmet idea came to fruition, but if it remains progressive and rapidly shoots out SSE of the BM then just 25 to 40 mph type stuff. no biggie. Nice, heavy heavy damage . A Kev special if that goes down. coastal mayhem to boot. coincidence on the BOB, Perfect storm combo of 91? Irene and the perfect Blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Too bad this ins't in the cold-season mode yet http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice, heavy heavy damage . A Kev special if that goes down. coastal mayhem to boot. coincidence on the BOB, Perfect storm combo of 91? Irene and the perfect Blizzard? Do you know where to find those maps Wes likes to use for his presentations when he shows standard deviation charts and everything? That could be a good source to use for this upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Too bad this ins't in the cold-season mode yet http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/analog.php Uh it is LOL http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GIve us a track across the elbow at least..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Do you know where to find those maps Wes likes to use for his presentations when he shows standard deviation charts and everything? That could be a good source to use for this upcoming storm. Analog maps? I am lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Too bad this ins't in the cold-season mode yet http://www.eas.slu.e...WARM/analog.php Is this the cold season mode link? http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Analog maps? I am lost They weren't analog maps but like maps showing standard deviation and such...like for QPF/sfc pressure/winds aloft/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Elbow track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Are you a HPC forecaster?? I think he stayed at a Holiday Inn express last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'll bet if you could give head to the head of HR after a few brews, you'd be hired. lol Tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.