ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 and the nam just gave up to the euro and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks way west but also looks like it's about to get the kick ENE at h51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It nukes I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It nukes I95. Honestly just astounding. Where the heck is Will he probably knows the dates...has this ever happened before in modern recorded history post 1880s? I'm betting this is a 1 in 200 year event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It nukes I95. crushes them. very cold in the low levels too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 W t f is this .... snow, in washington dc in October This is beyond the pail man... We're talking way out there anomaly stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NAM is ri-goddamn-diculous. Over correction FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm going to be April 1982 for Halloweenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NAM is ri-goddamn-diculous. Over correction FTL I did not expect the server to be challenged in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 water temperature is 63 degrees off of Delaware Bay...and near 60F in Newport. I wonder how much role that will play in the dynamics and the track. Thundersnow anyone? Could be some impressive instability and lift in CCB with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I did not expect the server to be challenged in October. Storm mode the last week in October. WTH man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 W t f is this .... snow, in washington dc in October This is beyond the pail man... We're talking way out there anomaly stuff. OT but this is the climate change I believe in more than warming etc...volatility. The last few years have been nuts. end OT. Hard to believe, the NAM is epic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Here's the climo research I did earlier, maybe Will can add some color and description of the events. But I agree with you, at least 1 in 200 year as modeled, could be even more historic in the 1 in 500 year range for some climo sites. To put this event in historical perspective, I looked up the BOS snow records dating back to 1891 and boston has recorded > Trace only 4 times in October with the highest total of 1.1" in 2005 and the next highest of 0.4" in 1913. Obviously based on this historical record if Boston somehow manages 3-6" or more which seems possible based on modeling, this would probably be in the HECS compared to climo (hope that's not too weenie, but I'm thinking this is a 1 in ever 250-400 year type event). Source Max Snowfall BOS - 1.1" (2005) Blue Hill - 6.8" (1979) CON - 2.1" (1969) Hartford - 1.7" (1979) ORH - 7.5" (1979) PVD - 2.5" (1979) Source So last 6"+ was in 1979 and only hit the favored SNE snow spots - Blue Hills and ORH. From what I could tell, there were no other years that had 6"+. Next highest for ORH was 4.7" in 1962 Edit: Obviously this excludes many elevated areas which probably have reported much more snow than the climo stations. Honestly just astounding. Where the heck is Will he probably knows the dates...has this ever happened before in modern recorded history post 1880s? I'm betting this is a 1 in 200 year event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 lol..nice 'cane force gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thundersnow anyone? Could be some impressive instability and lift in CCB with this. Electrical commahead! May as well be in the top part of a CB cloud for 7 hours in that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 LOL, how can this really be happening all things considered? I mean c'mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 All i can say is WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 lol..nice 'cane force gusts. How are tides for the coast? It will be a few days off the new moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 LOL, how can this really be happening all things considered? I mean c'mon? Occam's razor: it can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Occam's razor: it can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 and it ain't done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 One thing to consider in why we may see significant snow closer to the marine layer, than we would anticipate given track and ssts is that the circulation may be tighter than normal, as well....due also to the high octane ssts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 storm looks like it last for about 15 hours on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lots of GFS and SREF members slam NNE pretty hard...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 OKX has added some snowfall accumulations in the hourly weather graph for Saturday night (at least for CT zones). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 and it ain't done 50 more miles,,,,just 50 more miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 LOL, how can this really be happening all things considered? I mean c'mon? LOL - looks like you pulled up a map from some awesome January storm. This could be some coordinated trick for Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 wonder what the NAM clown maps will look like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 One thing to consider in why we may see significant snow closer to the marine layer, than we would anticipate given track and ssts is that the circulation may be tighter than normal, as well....due also to the high octane ssts. If this is all snow for you, you might see your second 20 before a year is up. Not likely but for our historical look backs, here is an epic weenie QPF output from the NAM. If this happens, Ryans winter forecast would be in serious trouble in one storm. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 wonder what the NAM clown maps will look like! Total porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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