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Second Winter Storm Threat - Oct 29/30


Baroclinic Zone

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Here's the climo research I did earlier, maybe Will can add some color and description of the events. But I agree with you, at least 1 in 200 year as modeled, could be even more historic in the 1 in 500 year range for some climo sites.

To put this event in historical perspective, I looked up the BOS snow records dating back to 1891 and boston has recorded > Trace only 4 times in October with the highest total of 1.1" in 2005 and the next highest of 0.4" in 1913. Obviously based on this historical record if Boston somehow manages 3-6" or more which seems possible based on modeling, this would probably be in the HECS compared to climo (hope that's not too weenie, but I'm thinking this is a 1 in ever 250-400 year type event).

Source

Max Snowfall

BOS - 1.1" (2005)

Blue Hill - 6.8" (1979)

CON - 2.1" (1969)

Hartford - 1.7" (1979)

ORH - 7.5" (1979)

PVD - 2.5" (1979)

Source

So last 6"+ was in 1979 and only hit the favored SNE snow spots - Blue Hills and ORH. From what I could tell, there were no other years that had 6"+. Next highest for ORH was 4.7" in 1962

Edit: Obviously this excludes many elevated areas which probably have reported much more snow than the climo stations.

Honestly just astounding. Where the heck is Will he probably knows the dates...has this ever happened before in modern recorded history post 1880s?

I'm betting this is a 1 in 200 year event?

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One thing to consider in why we may see significant snow closer to the marine layer, than we would anticipate given track and ssts is that the circulation may be tighter than normal, as well....due also to the high octane ssts.

If this is all snow for you, you might see your second 20 before a year is up. Not likely but for our historical look backs, here is an epic weenie QPF output from the NAM. If this happens, Ryans winter forecast would be in serious trouble in one storm. LOL

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