Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 What areas are you thinking get the powdery snows?Like MRGland i think a lot of places that are all snow it will be fairly dry actually - assuming the thermal profiles are right. it's not like a big 5000 foot layer of 0C/-1C type of air. it's plenty cold aloft. i think it starts as rain for lots of places then flips and would be wet for a while, but it's plenty cold after it gets going. i mean obviously it's not going to be like 17F and snowing...lol..but i don't see a 33 or 34F pasting either. in the berks, it could easily be in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i think a lot of places that are all snow it will be fairly dry actually - assuming the thermal profiles are right. it's not like a big 5000 foot layer of 0C/-1C type of air. it's plenty cold aloft. i think it starts as rain for lots of places then flips and would be wet for a while, but it's plenty cold after it gets going. i mean obviously it's not going to be like 17F and snowing...lol..but i don't see a 33 or 34F pasting either. in the berks, it could easily be in the 20s. Yeah i could def see that. I really want a 31-32 pasting..Haven't had a legit one in yrs of over like 4 or 5 inches..I want 8+ of mashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The markets today are feeling like we are.... I'm flummoxed as most are given the improbability of anything more than trifling this early outside of the higher elevations (2k). Amazing if this transpires as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah i could def see that. I really want a 31-32 pasting..Haven't had a legit one in yrs of over like 4 or 5 inches..I want 8+ of mashed You are welcoming the PASTING? Really looking for that tree damage, aren't you? While I won't be picky when it comes to snow, I definitely prefer the dry stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Starting at 12z. Temps in 925MB in Celsius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 scooter is that 7h RH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 scooter is that 7h RH? 850-500MB RH Black is height lines. White is MSLP grey looking like is 0C isotherm. Red is 100-850mb critical thickness. Yellow is 850-700mb critical thickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 All this talk here of impressive cold and historic amounts of wind-whipped powder for SNE. GYX says "meh" for my CWA... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --12Z GFS AND EURO COMING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON FAST MOVING 500 MB SHORT WAVE DEEPENING OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT...AND CLOSING OFF TO THE EAST OF CWA. SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK OUTSIDE OF 40/70 BENCHMARK...BUT FURTHER N AND W THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.5". P-TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT WEILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR PRECIP TO FALL THRU MOS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS SN. AT ISSUE WILL BE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER....WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY...ANY PRECIP WILL LKLY START AS RAIN MOST PLACES MID-LATE SAT AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...PRECIP COULD CHANGE TO SN LATE IN THE DAY SAT...AND MORE LIKLY SAT EVE....HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF YEAR...AND WARM TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM...ANY SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE...AT FIRST ON GRASSY SURFACES...AND IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...EVENTUALLY ON ROADS. STILL...ANY ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT ATTM...AND PRECIP SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 40S SUNDAY...SO ANY SN THAT DOES ACCUMULATE....WILL MELT AWAY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. Still an improvement from this morning's outlook. Incredible that this is even on the table at this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 850-500MB RH Black is height lines. White is MSLP grey looking like is 0C isotherm. Red is 100-850mb critical thickness. Yellow is 850-700mb critical thickness. Union, CT pivot point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just north of Jamaica Pond, near Kurkman's. Loving it so far, but the parking laws are horrendous. Thank goodness I got offstreet with my place. I probably share pretty much the same snow as both of you. I'm on the other side of Jamaica Pond near Stony Brook. Off street parking in brookline is an absolute must, lived there for 3 yrs. I actually think we might get some decent snows this weekend and some good wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 850-500MB RH Black is height lines. White is MSLP grey looking like is 0C isotherm. Red is 100-850mb critical thickness. Yellow is 850-700mb critical thickness. cool thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Union, CT pivot point? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro ensembles soon?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like the deformation banding would make it into S NH. I need another 25-50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 All this talk here of impressive cold and historic amounts of wind-whipped powder for SNE. GYX says "meh" for my CWA... Still an improvement from this morning's outlook. Incredible that this is even on the table at this point in the season. A big improvemnet, It was clear skies for sat sun this am, They are not going to go balls in at this point, Thats a good conservative start.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 850-500MB RH Black is height lines. White is MSLP grey looking like is 0C isotherm. Red is 100-850mb critical thickness. Yellow is 850-700mb critical thickness. Which one is qpf? Seriously though, it will be really intrestig to see how this one plays out. This one could be the Blizz win. Snow's pretty much stopped for the time being. 33.5/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like the best spots are NW NJ to NW CT to W MA-ORH into S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like the deformation banding would make it into S NH. I need another 25-50 miles. Not far fetched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like the best spots are NW NJ to NW CT to W MA-ORH into S NH. My ears perk up when I get a SVT in the cooridnates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On AM 1030, Burbank is going mostly rain for Cape/coastal SEMA....several inches inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 My ears perk up when I get a SVT in the cooridnates. Too bad you only got an SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like the best spots are NW NJ to NW CT to W MA-ORH into S NH. yeah you see that ribbon of deep moisture out that way overlaid with the good thermal profile...not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 My ears perk up when I get a SVT in the cooridnates. Just a rough guess based on CoastalWX's maps. Good swath of precip, 850 temps of -1 or -2, and with elevation and distance from water colder surface temps. Basically those will be areas that waste the least amount of time not accumulating and will probably have better ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The markets today are feeling like we are.... I'm flummoxed as most are given the improbability of anything more than trifling this early outside of the higher elevations (2k). Amazing if this transpires as progged. To put this event in historical perspective, I looked up the BOS snow records dating back to 1891 and boston has recorded > Trace only 4 times in October with the highest total of 1.1" in 2005 and the next highest of 0.4" in 1913. Obviously based on this historical record if Boston somehow manages 3-6" or more which seems possible based on modeling, this would probably be in the HECS compared to climo (hope that's not too weenie, but I'm thinking this is a 1 in ever 250-400 year type event). Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think the 00z was better for my area. Oh well, 2010/2011 prepped me mentally for storms like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 EC ensembles same latitude but a a little west by maybe 40 miles? Just south of the BM by a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think the 00z was better for my area. Oh well, 2010/2011 prepped me mentally for storms like this First off, it wasn't better. Secondly, it is October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think the 00z was better for my area. Oh well, 2010/2011 prepped me mentally for storms like this Plenty of time to correct but realistically you are close to Buzzards Bay and it's October so don't get too disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 EC ensembles same latitude but a a little west by maybe 40 miles? Just south of the BM by a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's crazy enough to be thinking about Oct. accumulating snows but the idea that parts of SNE may see wind whipped powder is just mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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