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Second Winter Storm Threat - Oct 29/30


Baroclinic Zone

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Oh come on...I made a joke post two or so days ago about me and Kevin having to jump in the tub together with a toaster cause our area wasn't going to snow tonight and I got blasted for it. That was a joke.

Life's tough...I understand you know his heartache though, being down there on the tropical shoreline and all. It can't be easy I'm sure.

Really, hmmm 70 inches last winter, and I may jackpot saturday while you smoke cirrus bonghits in nw ct

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Bitter? I am estactic that your endless summer ends with 8 inches of paste thicker than Mama Leones. I had more fun in oT than here because the constant day to day droning on and on about Temps just got blah. This is a great day to be alive. Greatest Fall Euro run of Jerrys life.

OMG Mama Leones!

Still rain here in Leominster @ 400' or so...

Heading to Rte 2 and salvation!

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For you it won't matter. I think eastern MA still may some issues. If winds are honking NE I don't care how cold it is aloft within the first 5 miles or so even up by Boston.

Yea always an issue even my way this early. Once that flow switches NNE its game on, Look at the Euro on Wunderground maps, look how the flow backs. You always get backside goodies anyways.

Here is a question, given this setup, Does it appear downsloping could be an issue for someone say near Central NE CT?

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that's the one thing that gives me pause is just how cold it is from about 925 mb on up. -4 to -6C at 850 is pretty darn cold for out here - we have plenty of coastals where we sit at like -1 to -2C at 850 for a good while during the event - it's just that the surface is nowhere near as warm...

it's sort of uncharted territory.

Yes for sure. I really hope it comes to pass as modeled because it'll be amazing to watch. I still think we're both cooked but I could see that area around the Bourne Bridge (just west along 25) getting smoked along with all of interior SE MA as soon as winds come enough to the north. Verbatim the Euro has it snowing just to my NW, I get just under a half inch. By the time winds are no longer off the water the precip is over.

Coastal fronts are only driven inland during events where storms come closer. A bombing low would help keep winds more nrly I think. We don't have a true arctic air mass like in the winter to help keep the flow more northerly, but warmer SST's will help enhance the boundary too. Like how a seabreeze develops in the summer.....colder air will always want to vector in towards warmer air.

All true, and when I take a closer look at the Euro it's not until winds come almost due north that snow crashes SE. Like I said it all makes sense, I'm just surprised there isn't more to overcome. The water in Boston Harbor is still in the upper 50s, water in the MA Bay area 55-56.

could be because the low is over the benchmark as opposed to January 12th which tracked over MVY. idk

Of course, but you're acting like we have a plethora of 55 degree SST snowstorms to compare this to. We don't, it's unchartered territory and probably unprecedented in modern recorded history if it came to pass.

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Yes for sure. I really hope it comes to pass as modeled because it'll be amazing to watch. I still think we're both cooked but I could see that area around the Bourne Bridge (just west along 25) getting smoked along with all of interior SE MA as soon as winds come enough to the north. Verbatim the Euro has it snowing just to my NW, I get just under a half inch. By the time winds are no longer off the water the precip is over.

All true, and when I take a closer look at the Euro it's not until winds come almost due north that snow crashes SE. Like I said it all makes sense, I'm just surprised there isn't more to overcome. The water in Boston Harbor is still in the upper 50s, water in the MA Bay area 55-56.

Of course, but you're acting like we have a plethora of 55 degree SST snowstorms to compare this to. We don't, it's unchartered territory and probably unprecedented in modern recorded history if it came to pass.

I think the only way we get meaningful snow prior to 12/10 is with a mainly northerly wind component. That's been proven time and again. Conversely, you can get a low 90s day in April with sst's in the low to mid 40s east of Boston. It's all on vector.

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I think the only way we get meaningful snow prior to 12/10 is with a mainly northerly wind component. That's been proven time and again. Conversely, you can get a low 90s day in April with sst's in the low to mid 40s east of Boston. It's all on vector.

We would probably start as rain at the onset with weak dynamics and a ne wind, but I think it would flip to a 32F snow as wind turns nrly and heavier echoes move in.

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He said 1-3 from ILG to Bos last night and you ripped him for it...BTW This am he upped to 3-6 with lolies to 10 for the same area....and actually extended SW to Dulles :whistle:

Congrats! your obsession with him is freaky, I thought you let your subscription run out after 3 years of epic busts?

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I think the only way we get meaningful snow prior to 12/10 is with a mainly northerly wind component. That's been proven time and again. Conversely, you can get a low 90s day in April with sst's in the low to mid 40s east of Boston. It's all on vector.

More difficult down this way, has to be a decent bit west of north....Euro seems to have it nailed out pretty nicely. Very believable snow maps.

I'd get nothing to 1/2" with a ton of mangled flakes, areas just west build up to maybe 4-5" at the Plymouth airport.

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More difficult down this way, has to be a decent bit west of north....Euro seems to have it nailed out pretty nicely. Very believable snow maps.

I'd get nothing to 1/2" with a ton of mangled flakes, areas just west build up to maybe 4-5" at the Plymouth airport.

Do you have a link to that map?

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