Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 what's amazing is how cold this evolution is...verbatim, there are places where this is a wind-whipped powder. LOL. we deal with milder coastals in mid-winter at times. Phil what's your gut instinct on our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 SOS Touche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If you are JUST on the outside looking in, do not worry....you will likely end up on one of the better bands imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think that instead of you going to VT, you should come to my 'ville on Saturday and we can pound Octoberfest in celebration. haha...there is a huge party planned for me in VT so I can't really ditch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 72 HR Cum. snowfall 8-12'' for all of northern CT/northern RI and the southern tier of MA 4-8'' everywhere else. Wiz if you don't mind...how about us up north...me Brian Jeff Eric etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 There ar enotable differences, Dec 16, 2007 comes to mind. Mainly in the consistency of the snow.....and ice, yes....much different story. I think our snow totals are similar. You may have even gotten a few more inches than me. You have a little elevation don't you? Well for Wilmington, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ok lets go for 40/71 on the 0Z run. 12z Euro is 4mb weaker @992mb at hr 66 as it crosses 40/69 as opposed to 0z over 40/67 @ 988mb at hr 78, So it did tick west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 off topic but i got mangled flakes here in West Seneca, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think our snow totals are similar. You may have even gotten a few more inches than me. You have a little elevation don't you? Well for Wilmington, that is. No, I'm @ 111'. We get about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It sounds like you and I will be on about the same line for this storm then.... both on the fringe praying for a slight shift north. LOL haha...there is a huge party planned for me in VT so I can't really ditch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If you are JUST on the outside looking in, do not worry....you will likely end up on one of the better bands imo. I honestly can't believe we're even talking about this. Surreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I finally got nice looking snow here in the last 20 minutes, but not much sticking yet. 33.2F. For about two hours we sat on the line with slop. off topic but i got mangled flakes here in West Seneca, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Over 5" at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wiz if you don't mind...how about us up north...me Brian Jeff Eric etc extreme southern VT/NH are in the 0.25'' to 0.375'' contour but a huge cutoff north of here less than 0.25''. This is only 60 HR though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Scooter or Ryan..what time does snow break out Saturday? We have the hood halloweenie party on Sat at the neighbors..Kids dress up..we drink etc. Snowing by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I am literally laughing in my computer chair right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wiz if you don't mind...how about us up north...me Brian Jeff Eric etc Mark, Just looked .50"-.75" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Terrible blue balls up here...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Phil what's your gut instinct on our area? i think it'll be extraordinary tough to overcome 55F sst for a good chunk of the event (first 2/3rds?) but i'd expect at least some frozen precip even out here once the flow backs a bit given just how cold everything/everywhere else is. it's the lowest levels that are mild for this general area...like the bottom 1500 feet of the column or so and that'll be a snow-stopper until that layer can get beaten down some. i suppose if we have really extreme precip rates we could flip or mix earlier if we end up with a layer thats like 2 or 3C and not 5 or 6C. if it were even just a few weeks later in the season - like turkey day - i'd be more optimistic on primarily frozen precip. i think there's a pretty serious wind threat too...probably in the 00z to 08z time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Mark, Just looked .50"-.75" qpf Thanks. Acceptable, with room for improvement. Time to buy sleds for the kids and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Mark, Just looked .50"-.75" qpf Man, are we really going to get blue balled for a second straight system? come on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I can't believe this. I thought I had Nov to change out the snowblower belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I honestly can't believe what I'm seeing. For the calendar this has got to be one of the most remarkable sets of guidance I've seen in a long time. Any chance that this is some what overdone or is this looking more and more legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I can't believe this. I thought I had Nov to change out the snowblower belt. most of it should melt, but you want to snowblow to build the banks, i doubt those will fully melt as winter arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Mark, Just looked .50"-.75" qpf The truth is we'd take half of that a month from now. lol. If we manage a 6+ storm I will be shocked....but on the other hand you expect that up here every 5 or 10 years I guess....but not down in SNE! Thanks Wiz and Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 guess any hopes of snow for NNE has gone down the drain Me and powdahfreak will be Terrible blue balls up here...ugh Man, are we really going to get blue balled for a second straight system? come on... Don't take this the wrong way, but you're really getting annoying. We know you're getting blue balled, you've posted about it 8 times. 1) It's October. 2) You're in the NEK of VT. You'll see plenty of snow. 3) Complaining about it isn't really going to make it snow this weekend. good day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I can't believe this. I thought I had Nov to change out the snowblower belt. I tuned and started mine on saturday when Scott and Ryan were suggesting that snow was even a remote possibility. Most throwers the belt should be no more than a half hour job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well when you move well inland you gotta realize that probably only about 25% of the storms that nail SNE work out here ..or in northern VT. It's nice when we can share in it, but "our" storms tend to track from like NYC to Boston...so you gotta wish rain on the poor SNE folks. LOL I may get something here ...like on Boxing Day when I managed 7 inches and got to share in it a bit. Man, are we really going to get blue balled for a second straight system? come on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i think it'll be extraordinary tough to overcome 55F sst for a good chunk of the event (first 2/3rds?) but i'd expect at least some frozen precip even out here once the flow backs a bit given just how cold everything/everywhere else is. it's the lowest levels that are mild for this general area...like the bottom 1500 feet of the column or so and that'll be a snow-stopper until that layer can get beaten down some. i suppose if we have really extreme precip rates we could flip or mix earlier if we end up with a layer thats like 2 or 3C and not 5 or 6C. if it were even just a few weeks later in the season - like turkey day - i'd be more optimistic on primarily frozen precip. i think there's a pretty serious wind threat too...probably in the 00z to 08z time frame. Thanks and I agree. I do like the accumulation maps the models are spitting out because it mostly shows what you're talking about with the SST's. If it played out as modeled I see a situation where you and I are in the proverbial wet boat while an area just to my west a mile is mainly non-accumulating mush, back by 195/495 they see accumulations just back from the marine air. Water temps are 55-56 in Boston Harbor and all the way east. Any marine influence off that water is going to roast the BL. Amazing though, it is so cold aloft on these models it could conceivably be overcome in some incredible precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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