dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm not looking for much. 30 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I was looking at the precip type on coolwx for the GFS run, unimpressive on the 95 corridor, NYC looks much better. CT im sure does well too. SE mass mostly cold rain with back end snow. Anymore West and its rain rain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Can you imagine the comical coupe if the NAM actually ended up the winner... hahaha. Oh man, can't win. You're worse than me at pointing out the what ifs that could lead to toaster diving. If the Euro stays the course at 12z take it all to the bank.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 that is pretty nuts that the lower res gfs ensemble is relatively significantly more amped up and northwest of the operational at the 60 to 72 hour range. Normally it would be a bit SE of the operational all things being equal. This happens once or twice a winter and it's a huge clue that the op is coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 wow! Holy crap....alot of those even give NE VT love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 considering the kicker, blocking, and vortex over the maritimes, this system can only go so far west Yep, starting to appear to be a Cape Hat to BM special. I disagree with Tip on one thing, even in Jan this is not a run of the mill. Phil mentioned the SSts and wind, great point, lots of mixing. Wild Sat for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well, he is single, but don't think he gets down like that. You're on the right site, though...keep your weenie crossed. teed up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm def. more worried about rain, than sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well, he is single, but don't think he gets down like that. You're on the right site, though...keep your weenie crossed. ehh i know you're joking but i wouldn't throw that word around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This happens once or twice a winter and it's a huge clue that the op is coming west. You had mentioned this last night as i remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Man, I'm visiting WSI in Andover on Saturday with my MET class...damn it'll be a tough drive back to NE VT...hope it ticks back west and gives us some love too! What do you think the chances of that are? I'll be working there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow...if any of that verifies Berkshires, NW Hills of CT, S Greens, ORH hills, and Monads, are going to get crushed. This would be a heavy snow, high wind threat, with warning criteria accumulations for many in these areas, and perhaps even outside of these areas as well. This is the type of event that could produce some "drier" snow for the higher elevations as temperatures may actually fall into the upper 20s. Pretty cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Negligible.....where the disparity btween my area and Lowell shines is with respect to marine intrusion. Any other advantage Lowell has is negated by its location within the armpit of the Merrimack. Yeah, any difference is negligable. We're probably .2 or .4 deg colder, and we'll turn to snow before Wilmington, but there are rare events where we get snow and Wilmington gets rain. Ice storm is another example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Individual GFS ENs complete agreement. Ryan when does the big dog post come out? Over Under on Wills alarm clock time going off for the Euro. I say 145 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm def. more worried about rain, than sun. yeah, agreed. It's possible the GFS ensemble just overcompensated a bit...it's tough to argue against the ec/ecmwf ensembles being that far off at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Are you getting excited yet? This happens once or twice a winter and it's a huge clue that the op is coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ehh i know you're joking but i wouldn't throw that word around. Oh, 'cmon....it was only a play on the word.....the opinions of those who matter know me well enough to glean that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ehh i know you're joking but i wouldn't throw that word around. agree. Ray is well-intended but that was a bit off. He is KGAY though so he gets slack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Are you getting excited yet? Woah, kinda personal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Individual GFS ENs complete agreement. Ryan when does the big dog post come out? Over Under on Wills alarm clock time going off for the Euro. I say 145 Tonight probably. I'm heading up to Litchfield County to watch for flakes from 5-630. I'd be worried about a too amped up solution given what the GEFS look like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah, any difference is negligable. We're probably .2 or .4 deg colder, and we'll turn to snow before Wilmington, but there are rare events where we get snow and Wilmington gets rain. Ice storm is another example. There ar enotable differences, Dec 16, 2007 comes to mind. Mainly in the consistency of the snow.....and ice, yes....much different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yeah, agreed. It's possible the GFS ensemble just overcompensated a bit...it's tough to argue against the ec/ecmwf ensembles being that far off at this range. The GFS has been out in deep right field for most of this lead up. I'll take the Euro today at 12z over any other model regardless of whatever it shows. The GGEM came NW some, is still SE of the BM a smidge I think. BM track'ish still preferred? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'll be working there. No kidding! We are actually going Friday, my bad. Tour is at 1pm. How funny would it be if I saw you!? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro's on the clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Rain snow line for quite a while will be pretty far west until the aegeo switches back NNE,still though with the dynamics even places like Messenger should make out with near record Oct accumulation on the back side, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 agree. Ray is well-intended but that was a bit off. He is KGAY though so he gets slack. Right....anyone who knows me understands that I am not one for derogatory terms...it just fit the situation. Apologies to those who aren't familiar with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 9z sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Tonight probably. I'm heading up to Litchfield County to watch for flakes from 5-630. I'd be worried about a too amped up solution given what the GEFS look like lol Agree on that, best spot wll be Will, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Tonight probably. I'm heading up to Litchfield County to watch for flakes from 5-630. I'd be worried about a too amped up solution given what the GEFS look like lol Not Tolland...I heard a lot of snow was expected there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 BTW it's Scott. I go back and forth with it because I never know. I figured that way I'd be right half the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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