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Second Winter Storm Threat - Oct 29/30


Baroclinic Zone

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that is pretty nuts that the lower res gfs ensemble is relatively significantly more amped up and northwest of the operational at the 60 to 72 hour range. Normally it would be a bit SE of the operational all things being equal.

This happens once or twice a winter and it's a huge clue that the op is coming west.

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considering the kicker, blocking, and vortex over the maritimes, this system can only go so far west

Yep, starting to appear to be a Cape Hat to BM special. I disagree with Tip on one thing, even in Jan this is not a run of the mill. Phil mentioned the SSts and wind, great point, lots of mixing. Wild Sat for sure.

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f60.gif

Wow...if any of that verifies Berkshires, NW Hills of CT, S Greens, ORH hills, and Monads, are going to get crushed. This would be a heavy snow, high wind threat, with warning criteria accumulations for many in these areas, and perhaps even outside of these areas as well. This is the type of event that could produce some "drier" snow for the higher elevations as temperatures may actually fall into the upper 20s. Pretty cool...

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Negligible.....where the disparity btween my area and Lowell shines is with respect to marine intrusion.

Any other advantage Lowell has is negated by its location within the armpit of the Merrimack.

Yeah, any difference is negligable. We're probably .2 or .4 deg colder, and we'll turn to snow before Wilmington, but there are rare events where we get snow and Wilmington gets rain.

Ice storm is another example.

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Individual GFS ENs complete agreement. Ryan when does the big dog post come out? Over Under on Wills alarm clock time going off for the Euro. I say 145

Tonight probably. I'm heading up to Litchfield County to watch for flakes from 5-630.

I'd be worried about a too amped up solution given what the GEFS look like lol

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Yeah, any difference is negligable. We're probably .2 or .4 deg colder, and we'll turn to snow before Wilmington, but there are rare events where we get snow and Wilmington gets rain.

Ice storm is another example.

There ar enotable differences, Dec 16, 2007 comes to mind.

Mainly in the consistency of the snow.....and ice, yes....much different story.

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yeah, agreed. It's possible the GFS ensemble just overcompensated a bit...it's tough to argue against the ec/ecmwf ensembles being that far off at this range.

The GFS has been out in deep right field for most of this lead up. I'll take the Euro today at 12z over any other model regardless of whatever it shows.

The GGEM came NW some, is still SE of the BM a smidge I think. BM track'ish still preferred?

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