HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 999.3 mb. Dropping like a rock compared to earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bizzarro....it seems the storm was sheared to strip it of outflow but yet a dense convective blob persists...almost like a tropical cut off low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 998.2 mb. Wind seems maybe a tad lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 997.1 mb. Still falling fast. Calming and not raining anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Josh, look at the Cancun radar. http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/cancun/cancun_ultima.php I'll bet you are now inside the "eye". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 996.6 mb. Still pretty calm. No rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Josh, look at the Cancun radar. http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/cancun/cancun_ultima.php I'll bet you are now inside the "eye". Ha ha ha, awesome! I thought I might be, because the pressure stopped falling-- I don't think it's gone any lower than 996.5 mb, so no real change in 10 mins or so-- and it's still kind of calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yep-- I think that was the center! Pressure's climbing again-- back up to 997.0 mb-- and the wind has shifted and is picking up again. Lots of lightning again as well. Awesome. Even a piece of crap can be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 997.7 mb and rising fast. Quite windy again, and it's lightly raining. The backside-- woo hoo! I sent my obs to the NHC-- maybe they'll help them place the center, which I believe passed through here around 9:05 pm CDT or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Glad to see it wasn't a total waste, man. At least you hit the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Glad to see it wasn't a total waste, man. At least you hit the center Thanks. This experience has given me a surprising amount of nerd pleasure. It was just cool to really see and measure the cyclonic structure and (much weakened) wind core, bony but still intact. Cool. 998.5 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 All I'm going on is radar, but it looks like the center is still well offshore. [edit] I thought I'd also point out that the last NHC stuff I looked at suggested that Rina might essentially just sit there motionless for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Very curious to see what the 10pm CDT advisory pressure and position are. Based on my position and obs, I'm going to guess 20.6N 87.2W, with a pressure of 996 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Omg! The advisory came out and bingo!! And before y'all say I rigged it, I posted my low pressure here over a half hour ago (and eMailed it to the NHC)-- well before the advisory came out. Feeling nerd cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Great job, Josh. You should be proud, as we are, that when Rina gave us lemons, you made the lemonaide. Your passion for 'science and data' sets you apart from an 'image chaser'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 All I'm going on is radar, but it looks like the center is still well offshore. [edit] I thought I'd also point out that the last NHC stuff I looked at suggested that Rina might essentially just sit there motionless for awhile. Oh, it's moving. The pressure is up to 1000.0 mb and still rising. By the way, the wind really picked up-- steady over 20 kt, I'd say. I don't think radar is going to give you good position estimates with such a sheared system-- I think surface obs like pressure and wind direction/speed are the way to go. The NHC's position is off by about 1 hr. The low pressure and calm were at the 10 pm CDT advisory position (which is here) about an hour ago. But it's close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Great job, Josh. You should be proud, as we are, that when Rina gave us lemons, you made the lemonaide. Your passion for 'science and data' sets you apart from an 'image chaser'. Aw, thanks, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well, there definitely was something of a backside to this system. A little after my last post, the wind picked up suddenly and blew hard for an hour. I stood essentially for one hour straight, on a patio near the open beach, holding the Kestrel above my head like the Statue of Liberty from 10:03 pm to 11:09 pm CDT. Keep in mind that the instrument was only 3-4 m above the ground-- not the standard 10 m. The sample rate was once per 30 sec. The average wind for the entire period was 20 kt. There were extended periods of steady winds over 25 kt, with a peak gust of 33 kt at 10:16 pm. Of course these values would have been higher at the standard 10 m. Not bad, though. It shows there's still a vigorous surface circulation with this system. There was almost no rain during this backside. It's calmed down a bit, but winds are still steady at a fresh 15 kt. Pressure just hitting 1005.0 mb and slowly rising. Still some flashes of lightning. Ready to pack it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well, there definitely was something of a backside to this system. A little after my last post, the wind picked up suddenly and blew hard for an hour. I stood essentially for one hour straight, on a patio near the open beach, holding the Kestrel above my head like the Statue of Liberty from 10:03 pm to 11:09 pm CDT. Keep in mind that the instrument was only 3-4 m above the ground-- not the standard 10 m. The sample rate was once per 30 sec. The average wind for the entire period was 20 kt. There were extended periods of steady winds over 25 kt, with a peak gust of 33 kt at 10:16 pm. Of course these values would have been higher at the standard 10 m. Not bad, though. It shows there's still a vigorous surface circulation with this system. There was almost no rain during this backside. It's calmed down a bit, but winds are still steady at a fresh 15 kt. Pressure just hitting 1005.0 mb and slowly rising. Still some flashes of lightning. Ready to pack it in. Good job Josh. Science! Hey fly up to the Cape, latest Bufkit has sustained 45 gusting to 70, of course you would be standing in snow and 50 degrees colder. Congrats on getting to the center yet again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good job Josh. Science! Hey fly up to the Cape, latest Bufkit has sustained 45 gusting to 70, of course you would be standing in snow and 50 degrees colder. Congrats on getting to the center yet again! Hey, thanks, Steve. Yeah, it was nothing dramatic or impressive-- it was no Jova or Wilma-- but it was gratifying on a science-nerd level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Back at the hotel. It's raining again, but there's electricity and I'm just happy to be back in a warm room. This was a fun little chase. No, of course it wasn't worth coming from California for it-- obviously not-- but, hey, I was here and I made the most of it. Rina sucked but the chase was a success. I wanted to punch the center and that's what I did. I got right in it-- a bull's eye-- and collected what I believe are valuable and relevant data. (Yeah, I'm patting myself on the back-- I gotta do something after coming from California to chase a sheared TS. ) It was cool to really observe/document the component parts of a tropical cyclone as it passed right over my location. And unlike Don, Rina actually did still have an intact structure and observable tropical-cyclone components: a sharp pressure dip, a tight wind core (with front side and backside), a central calm bookended by periods of rain/wind, and a sharp directional shift in the wind after the center passed and the pressure started rising. (We had none of these things in Don.) Rina was weakened and hurting, but the "bones" were still in place. There was still structure. And the frequent lightning was a small bonus. Quick summary of the chase's particulars. (All times are CDT and rounded to nearest 5 mins unless it's the time of actual, recorded data.) Location & Time * My exact location was 20.522478N 87.192073W-- right on a waterfront patio in a private community in Palmul. * I was at this spot from ~8:00 pm to ~11:25 pm. * The elevation where I kept the barometer was ~10 ft, and the barometer was calibrated (for sea-level readings) using that value. (Note: During the strong winds on the backside, I held the instrument high over my head to take wind readings-- so that may have slightly affected the air-pressure values from ~10 to 11 pm.) Front Side * The starting pressure at this location was 1001.5 mb. * Strong, gusty winds (along with moderate rain) started at ~8:20 pm and went until ~8:45 pm. During this time, the pressure dropped fast. Center * At ~8:45 pm, it started to calm, and by ~8:55 pm, it had stopped raining. * The lull lasted until ~9:25 pm. Lowest pressure during this lull was 996.5 mb, recorded at 9:12 pm. * The NHC's 10 pm CDT advisory position (20.5N 87.2W) is as close as you can get to my location with coordinates of only one decimal place. But I believe this 10-pm-advisory position is off by ~1 hr (i.e., it's too far S), as I had the lowest pressure (with calm) an hour earlier-- a little after 9 pm. (It could be that the system was vertically tilted, and therefore the recon center fix did not match the surface center.) I'm going to send the NHC these obs, so perhaps they can factor them into the post-analysis. * My lowest pressure corresponds very nicely with the NHC's 10-pm-advisory pressure (from recon) of 996 mb. Backside * Around ~9:20 pm, there was a marked shift in the wind's direction and it was picking up speed again. The pressure was 997.0 mb and rising. * At ~9:25 pm, the wind became gusty, and it started raining lightly. The pressure was 997.6 mb and rising rapidly. * The wind increased and became quite strong for an hour, blowing mostly from the SW-- from a little after 10 pm to a little after 11 pm. During this time-- a solid hour-- the average wind speed was 20 kt (sample rate = 30 secs), with frequent, extended periods of steady 25+ kt, and a peak gust of 33 kt (at 10:16 pm). These measurements were taken on a patio on the open beach, so the exposure was pretty good-- however, the instrument's height was only ~4 m, so true winds (at 10 m) were most certainly higher. During this period of strong winds, there was very little rain. * By ~11:05 pm, the winds were down to 15 kt and slacking. Other Comments * There was frequent, brilliant lightning-- both before and after the center passed. (In fact, there was just a flash and a loud clap of thunder here in Playa del Carmen.) * I saw very little damage on the drive back up from Palmul to Playa del Carmen-- just some downed branches and localized power outages. I shot no video. I have no desire to dilute my portfolio with tropical-storm footage-- seems kind of lackluster-- so I didn't even turn on the camera. You know what, though? It was kind of cool and liberating to not have to shoot video, and it allowed me to concentrate more on observations. So it was a different kind of chase. From a weather-nerd/data-collection standpoint, this chase was a lot of fun. OK, time to find food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hey, thanks, Steve. Yeah, it was nothing dramatic or impressive-- it was no Jova or Wilma-- but it was gratifying on a science-nerd level. Hard to believe that we can compare against a storm from this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hard to believe that we can compare against a storm from this year. Jova was pure awesomeness-- a sparkling jewel in a year of disappointments-- one of my favorite 'canes ever. By the way, I'll be posting the Jova video soon-- within about a week. Woo hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Great job, Josh. You should be proud, as we are, that when Rina gave us lemons, you made the lemonaide. Your passion for 'science and data' sets you apart from an 'image chaser'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Now I am really glad I didn't go. 45 MPH (although highly sheared) still GROUNDS planes... Flight #1302 - CANCELLED Detailed Flight Information AMERICAN AIRLINES Departing: CUN Cancun 10/28/2011 03:10 PM CANCELLED Arriving: MIA Miami 10/28/2011 05:50 PM D40 CANCELLED This WOULD have been my RETURN flight ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good day all, VERY excellent write-up, Josh! ...From a weather-nerd/data-collection standpoint, this chase was a lot of fun. OK, time to find food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Rita was weakened and hurting, but the "bones" were still in place. There was still structure. And the frequent lightning was a small bonus. NHC did it as well in an advisory, maybe changing more than a letter in the future when they retire a storm. Good chase, for what you had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 They sent my Kestrel back to me, recalibrated, and I should receive it any day-- so I will finally send yours back to you, when I get back to L.A. Thanks again for lending it so generously. Now I am really glad I didn't go. 45 MPH (although highly sheared) still GROUNDS planes... Flight #1302 - CANCELLED Detailed Flight Information AMERICAN AIRLINES Departing: CUN Cancun 10/28/2011 03:10 PM CANCELLED Arriving: MIA Miami 10/28/2011 05:50 PM D40 CANCELLED This WOULD have been my RETURN flight ;-) Ugh-- yeah, that would be annoying. My flight is tomorrow-- fingers crossed. But if I'm stuck here, no big deal. I have my computer and Internet, and I can work here just as if I'm at home-- so it's no biggie. It's kind of nice out this morning-- calm, with the sun poking through. Good day all, VERY excellent write-up, Josh! Hey, thanks, Chris! NHC did it as well in an advisory, maybe changing more than a letter in the future when they retire a storm. Good chase, for what you had. Oops, fixed it. (Good eye. ) Thanks for following along-- I know a sheared TS ain't everyone's cup o' tea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Oh, in the general chase thread, I asked if you could come up with hundreds of thousands of dollars (a raffle?) to outfit a truck with doppler radar. I've seen truck portable (way smaller than the DOW) on a modified one ton pickup truck for only $600,000 on the Discovery 'Storm Chasers' show, and if they can measure doppler velocities in a tornadic supercell, imagine what you can do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Oh, in the general chase thread, I asked if you could come up with hundreds of thousands of dollars (a raffle?) to outfit a truck with doppler radar. I've seen truck portable (way smaller than the DOW) on a modified one ton pickup truck for only $600,000 on the Discovery 'Storm Chasers' show, and if they can measure doppler velocities in a tornadic supercell, imagine what you can do... I'll check it out. It sounds awesome but complicated-- you'd need a real technician to handle that sort of thing, and that's its own area of expertise-- not to mention it's also way over my chase budget! ("Only" $600K? I don't know about you, but I'm a workin' dude. ) This having been said, I wish someone would do that. Landfalls like Jova need to be better documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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