HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 You'll have to drive south some, IMO, to get to the center.... Xelha to Paamul Yeah, that looks like the possible zone. The center is doing that pre-landfall wobble thing-- first it was more W, now it's more N-- so it's hard to know exactly. I'm just going to chill in Playa del Carmen and make a decision Re: where to go when the center gets closer (if there even is a coherent center at that point). I certainly wouldn't mind driving a few miles down the coast to take a pressure reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Eye popping out again Just messing with Josh...it's a faux eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Eye popping out again Just messing with Josh...it's a faux eye. It's obviously not an eye. However, the center is well-embedded within the deep convection, which has expanded in coverage again. It looks like it's making one last gasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 The center is about halfway between the CUN and BZE radar sites now, so with major attenuation going on from either end, it's hard to see what's happening with the structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 The 1 pm CDT advisory has it at 19.5N 87.1W, moving a hair W of due N. The current heading would bring it in near Tulum or Xel Ha. However, if it turns due N, it'll come in very close to me (Playa del Carmen)-- which would be nice. I don't feel like driving to get a central-pressure reading. The latest IR ain't bad-- the center is embedded well within the deep convection: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 I drove down to Tulum-- wanted to take a look at the town so I can file away the knowledge for future chases. (Emily 2005, a Cat 4, made landfall here.) Also, I'm determined to get a central-pressure reading from this steaming pile of a system-- would like to come away with at least that. The CUN radar is not very good, so I've been looking more at BZE which, even from this distance, shows the structure a little better. The IR presentation has once again deteriorated. (It's really misleading, by the way-- this whole region is under reds, but on the drive down from Playa del Carmen, the rain has been mostly light-to-moderate.) Current conditions in Tulum: light rain, light winds (under 10 kt), 1004.5 mb. I'll chill here until the next advisory-- in about an hour. I'm parked next to a pleasant-looking cafe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's raining harder now-- has been for a half hour or so-- but the winds remain light (<10 kt) and the pressure hasn't fallen a whole lot. It's now 1003.9 mb-- a drop of 0.6 mb in one hour, which is pretty lame for an approaching cyclone deep in the tropics. You'd expect more of a gradient than that. The new advisory indicates Rina has weakened more. Extrapolating the current motion brings the pressure center ashore between here and Playa del Carmen, so I'll probably head back up the coast in a bit. (Cool since it's on the way back anyway.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
left_gulley Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I haven't actually ever gotten off the highway to check out Tulum, but you'e piqued my curiosity, so perhaps I'll go have a look. I have the day to kill, so why not? If you haven't been there before I'd check out Chichen Itza. The ruins there are extremely impressive and you can take a glorious bath in beautiful Cenote Ikil which is close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow-- the IR presentation is deteriorating fast. It's almost Don-like. I'm ~25 mi NNW of the center, a couple of miles inland, and winds remain >10 kt. Left side or right side, that's just lame. Rain still light-to-moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Enjoy your Latte's on the beach, Josh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 If you haven't been there before I'd check out Chichen Itza. The ruins there are extremely impressive and you can take a glorious bath in beautiful Cenote Ikil which is close by. I tried to check out Xel-Ha on the way up here, but it was blocked off. I think even through the storm is a major dud, stuff is closed today because of the expectation of a hurricane. This is the very first chase I've been on where, during the "chase", I actually had time to park the car and do work-- eMailing clients and colleagues, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Enjoy your Latte's on the beach, Josh... Yep. On the bright side, the storm's impact is looking so light, I'm thinking the power will stay on and restaurants/businesses in Playa del Carmen will be open tonight, so I can make this into a real vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Poof... So Don-esque! Glad to see your still in good spirits though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Poof... So Don-esque! Glad to see your still in good spirits though! Oh, yeah-- can't let a bust get ya down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 OK, so I'm making this a game of "Pin the Low Pressure Center on the Turkey"... I'm now at 20.286N 87.377W, which is on the waterfront of a small bay ~2 mi SW of Xel-Ha. Extrapolating the last three advisory positions brings the center ashore here. Current pressure-- corrected to 5 ft above sea level-- is 1003.0 mb. We just had a brief downpour-- now it's light again. Winds between 5 and 10 kt, although they seem to be picking up as I sit here in the car. Good-size waves are breaking well offshore. Even in this bad weather, the water is turquoise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 OK, this is mildly interesting: looking up the bay to the NE, the trees are waving quite a bit more-- bending toward the ocean, meaning the flow is offshore-- and there's a low howl coming from that direction. I think whatever is left of Rna's wind core is coming ashore a little further up the coast-- so I think Im going to go up 2 or 3 mi. 1002.1 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm now at 20.320N 87.357W, in Xel-Ha, near the waterfront. I had to trespass to get here, and a guard asked me to leave-- but he's cool with me taking a couple of minutes to record data. (I really need to work on my Spanish-- I could scarcely explain what I was doing here.) Trying ti determine altitude to get a sea-level pressure reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 OK, no wonder the pressure is still around 1002 mb. The newest advisory has the center a bit E of me, at 20.1N 87.2W. It's heading due N now. Need to head up the coast a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The Cancun radar MAY be of some help to you now, Josh. It's a bit difficult to say for sure, but by my estimation you may need to get as extremely NE as you can... Land's End. It appears that the eye remains S of there. OK, no wonder the pressure is still around 1002 mb. The newest advisory has the center a bit E of me, at 20.1N 87.2W. It's heading due N now. Need to head up the coast a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Heading for La Gloria and Palmul-- those are in the path of extrapolated due-N motion. Coming up on Akumal. Moderate rain but sh*tloads of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Coming up on X-Puha. Moderate rain. Brilliant, almost continuous lightning. Very weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 My longitude is a little more than 87.25W. Since the center is moving a shade W of due N (350 degrees), but will probably be shifting to due N and then E of due N, I'm going to to drive just a little more-- until my longitude is a little under 87.2N-- and stop there. Still lots of lightning. I'm parked on the side of the highway with the car off and the window down, and I can hear the low rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Coming up on X-Puha. Moderate rain. Brilliant, almost continuous lightning. Very weird. At least your getting something interesting out of this, I'm guessing you don't see lightning too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I just pulled over and looked a the IR, and it explains why all the lightning seems to be up ahead-- as the deep convection is all NE of the center, and well ENE of me. It's cool-- I just want to get in the pressure center. I'm not chasing heavy weather with this one. Almost to Palmul, where I'll reassess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I just pulled over and looked a the IR, and it explains why all the lightning seems to be up ahead-- as the deep convection is all NE of the center, and well ENE of me. It's cool-- I just want to get in the pressure center. I'm not chasing heavy weather with this one. Almost to Palmul, where I'll reassess. Now that the center is becoming completely detached from the convection, I think it should start to slow down, and the pressure has likely risen to around 1000mb, so you are probably not too far off from the minimum pressure right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At least this pressure corpse is a little deeper than Don's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm at 20.522N 87.192W, right on the waterfront of a private community in Palmul. (I really had to explain to the security dudes why I wanted to come in, and they took my drivers license. They seem cool.) Quite windy out here-- and warm. Light rain. 1000.9 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 The wind picked up really suddenly and is really blowing now-- like a storm. Its blowing offshore, it seems. And the pressure has dropped a bit-- to 1000.1 mb. That's a fast drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 999.8 mb now. Wind blowing good-- 20 or 30 kt with higher gusts-- and moderate rain. Something of a wind core left with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I agree that that's a fast drop, but keep in mind that convective activity can play some games with the pressures, too. The rapid increase in the wind is evidence of nearby convective activity as well. It sounds as if you are enjoying the evening! The wind picked up really suddenly and is really blowing now-- like a storm. Its blowing offshore, it seems. And the pressure has dropped a bit-- to 1000.1 mb. That's a fast drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.