HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 So I decided to chase Rina. It nose-dived today when I was literally in the air-- en route from LAX to DFW. So imagine my shock when the plane landed and I read that special advisory about the significant weakening. It was a weather nerd's punch in the stomach. I had some grim consultations with Scott and Adam-- the latter of whom talked to me like a doctor explaining treatment options to a terminal cancer patient. The conversations included such ghastly questions as, "Do you think it will even make it ashore as a hurricane...?" I was tempted to just turn around and fly back to LAX-- but then I decided to stay the course and accept the consequences. If it's a bust, whatevz-- I enjoy a few days in Playa del Carmen. I've experienced worse consequences for mistakes. Like I said before, I just couldn't ignore that NHC forecast of a major on the Yucatan. This is my favorite turf on the planet, and October is my favorite month. To risk missing a potential Roxanne redux was just unacceptable. I would rather bust badly on a turkey then watch from California as a 100-kt cyclone come ashore on the Yucatan. Couldn't live with that. So I'm here-- in Playa del Carmen, comfortably in the NHC's forecast track. I'll take a daytime Cat-1 landfall here. Could be cool. There's a good highway and lots of towns up and down the coast. Primo chase turf. One thing I'll say: I'm encouraged by some of the recent IR images-- as well as this surprisingly hawt radar shot from BZE. That's a noice eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Seriously, it looks better each frame on the IR. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 While I was a bit surprised about the weakening this morning, I don't think this system is on a downward spiral yet. In fact, I'm fairly certain that at this forward motion the storm should be able to fend off the stronger 200mb flow until landfall. This is mainly due to the warm OHC along with the fact that the 300mb flow is still rather weak in comparison to the 200mb flow. The 300mb flow won't intensify significantly for the next 24 hours. Thus, while the eye won't likely be observed on visible or infrared imagery (since the 200mb flow will blow off the highest cloud tops), the storm should remain vertically stacked in the low to mid levels up to 300mb before landfall. Its not surprising to see the eyewall mainly in tact at this time and I think there is a decent chance it survives in this state up until landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 OK, I'm totally wobble-watching now-- and the latest (7 pm CDT) advisory shows a nice jog left. Cool. I also notice they forecast "no important changes in strength" before landfall tomorrow-- so they must feel it's stabilized. Cool. Hey, it'll be fun to get right in the eye of a 75-kt baby. I'd be down with that. There's enough highways and towns here to really finetune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not bad at all. In fact, I think this is the best it's looked on IR since overnight last night. I like that little core. I notice in the advisory data that the 64-kt radius is only 15 n mi, and the eye diameter is 15 n mi. So it's another small-core micro. The cool thing this time around is it'll be daytime, in an area with lots of town and roads. I'm totally ready to adjust and fine-tune down to the mile. Since it probably won't be a strong 'cane, I want to make this a game of perfect placement. My goal is to get in the center of the eye and get a good, useful landfall pressure for the NHC-- and maybe some good footage, since it'll be day. I'm thinking it might be possible to salvage this trip and get some cheap thrills out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...RINA HANGING IN THERE WITH 85 MPH WINDS...COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 86.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES Don't know if you saw this in the Rina thread... Looks pretty good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...RINA HANGING IN THERE WITH 85 MPH WINDS...COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 86.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES Don't know if you saw this in the Rina thread... Looks pretty good! Nice looking presentation on microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Track has shifted a touch N. Over the southern portion of Cozumel and then just up the coast from San Miguelito. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Don't know if you saw this in the Rina thread... Looks pretty good! Wow-- thank you for posting these! I had not seen them and I'm kind of shocked at how nicely the cyclone has recovered today! It looks really good on those MW shots! Nice looking presentation on microwave. Totally. Track has shifted a touch N. Over the southern portion of Cozumel and then just up the coast from San Miguelito. But it's also shifted a tad W, which is good: the W-most longitude is now 87.0W, whereas it was 86.9W in the previous advisory. One other thing-- the last two advisory positions show the center gaining significant longitude-- much faster than it's gaining latitude-- so I'm psyched about that. The current forecast track takes the center literally almost right over me in Playa del Carmen-- I wouldn't even have to get in the car. (Actuall, with that track, I'd probably go 20 mi up to Puerto Morelos, to be just right of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm absolutely exhausted-- my eyes are closing-- but wanted to make a quick post before hitting the sack. I walked into downtown Playa del Carmen for dinner this evening-- and it's like a fortress. A lot of restaurants were open, and tourists were enjoying strolling in the muggy night air-- but I'd say half the businesses and homes were totally boarded up or shuttered, or in the process of being boarded up. Even phone booths were wrapped in heavy-duty cellophane to keep the receivers from knocking around in the wind. The sea was choppy and restless. There were patches of starry clear sky. You could see the glow from Cozumel across the way. Folks here know hurricanes. In October 2005, Cat-4 Wilma made a direct hit on this waterfront town with a landfall intensity of a whopping 115 kt. So I guess experiences like that factor into their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow :axe: URNT12 KNHC 270615 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011 A. 27/05:56:30Z B. 18 deg 40 min N 086 deg 44 min W C. 700 mb 3041 m D. 53 kt E. 079 deg 15 nm F. 133 deg 66 kt G. 072 deg 19 nm H. EXTRAP 993 mb I. 8 C / 3049 m J. 17 C / 3041 m K. 4 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 5 nm P. AF306 1118A RINA OB 05 MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 05:50:30Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB NO EYE SONDE RELEASED SFMR INDICATED SFC WINDS OVER 40 KTS AT FL FIX POSN GOOD RAIN SHIELD ON RADAR TO THE NORTH BUT NO CLEAR EYEWALL EVIDENT ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 VDM fixes have been consistently SW of the NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 I just posted in the main thread-- I am not surprised by these readings, given the IR presentation-- it's gone to crap the last couple of hours. It makes the 1 am CDT advisory a bit puzzling-- I guess they issued it before they received these data? Back to sleep for me-- cyclone or no cyclone, I am pooped. And the rain hitting the window makes me want to curl up in bed. Maybe I'll stay in today and watch telenovelas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It appears to be in the process of Don-ing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 It appears to be in the process of Don-ing. It's funny you say that, because I asked myself tonight, "Will this pull a Don or pull a Jova?" I feel like I got one surprise each way this year. As Jorge (wxmx) said, the fickleness of this system has been crazy! It looked horrible yesterday morning. Then it rebounded spectacularly in the evening: look at the radar and MW shots from a few hours ago-- just awesome. And then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 credit to "bendy mod" for calling the shear and more western track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On the bright side, she will loop and merge with 97L, thus giving the Peninsula another mood swinging hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On the bright side, she will loop and merge with 97L, thus giving the Peninsula another mood swinging hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 credit to "bendy mod" for calling the shear and more western track. Oh, for sure. Adam has been really on this season-- and this one is playing out almost exactly like he said it would. At this point, I hope the thing just shears completely so we can get a decent beach day here-- the beaches here are really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Oh, for sure. Adam has been on really on this season-- and this one is playing out almost exactly like he said it would. At this point, I hope the thing just shears completely so we can get a decent beach day here-- the beaches here are really nice. It's no one's fault of course, but have you ever been "fooled" before by a short term NHC forecast like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's no one's fault of course, but have you ever been "fooled" before by a short term NHC forecast like this? Well, I haven't ever had a bust like this-- my batting average to now has been near perfect-- so I've never been "fooled" up until now. But I don't feel like it's the NHC's "fault". There was a strong, strengthening hurricane in the NW Caribbean in October, heading toward the Yucatan. That's a setup I'm always going to go after, because it's climatologically solid and this is my personal favorite chase turf. Given this same setup and the same set of uncertainties, I would make the trip again, because you can generally count on this setup. It reminds me a bit of Keith 2000-- looked awesome and then really tanked as it came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Oh, for sure. Adam has been on really on this season-- and this one is playing out almost exactly like he said it would. At this point, I hope the thing just shears completely so we can get a decent beach day here-- the beaches here are really nice. Looks like the backside is sheared enough for mainly low clouds and breezy. Might not be prime beach weather, but the surf will be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hey Josh - as a weird coincidence, Cancun is where I went after my season at the Club in Costa Careyes! I used to travel the road between Cancun and Tulum/Xelha/Coba 2x a week with excursions. It's a such a better road now then when I was there, you are definitely in a good spot! I'm sure it wouldn't be open during a storm, but Tulum would be an amazing place to watch something like this roll in. Combine the spectacular views from the cliffs and its history as one of the Mayan's most sacred places and you've got a really cool viewing point. Unfortunately, my next Club Med was in Colorado, so that's where the coincidence ends... Enjoy the storm and hopefully some sun, looking forward to reading the latest report! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Both the CUN and BZE radars are still showing a strong convective band hooking partially around the N and W sides of the center-- so there's still some structure. It seems to be heading in my general direction, which is cool, because I'd like to get a central pressure reading in whatever it is that comes ashore, and I'd like to not have to drive far to do it. Needless to say, I'm feeling a bit lazy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hey Josh - as a weird coincidence, Cancun is where I went after my season at the Club in Costa Careyes! I used to travel the road between Cancun and Tulum/Xelha/Coba 2x a week with excursions. It's a such a better road now then when I was there, you are definitely in a good spot! I'm sure it wouldn't be open during a storm, but Tulum would be an amazing place to watch something like this roll in. Combine the spectacular views from the cliffs and its history as one of the Mayan's most sacred places and you've got a really cool viewing point. Unfortunately, my next Club Med was in Colorado, so that's where the coincidence ends... Enjoy the storm and hopefully some sun, looking forward to reading the latest report! How weird that I'm practically chasing in your old footsteps this season. I've been to this part of the Yucatan before, and I'm actually staying in the same hotel that I used as my staging location for my Dean 2007 chase (before I went down to Chetumal). I haven't actually ever gotten off the highway to check out Tulum, but you'e piqued my curiosity, so perhaps I'll go have a look. I have the day to kill, so why not? Rina looks to be a dud, but I'll still try to get a central pressure reading for nerd thrills. The storm has turned more N, so to get right in the center, it's looking like I might be able to stay put here in Playa del Carmen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Oh, for sure. Adam has been on really on this season-- and this one is playing out almost exactly like he said it would. At this point, I hope the thing just shears completely so we can get a decent beach day here-- the beaches here are really nice. Yea Adam deserves major kudos... as well as the ECWMF despite how I trashed it earlier this week in my blog Good luck Josh... the pressure reading would certainly be interesting from a observational standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You'll have to drive south some, IMO, to get to the center.... Xelha to Paamul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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