JustinBerk Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Does anyone remember the Christmas snow of 2002? That storm had a rapid turn over with ample moisture let over before the cut off. This is starting to remind me of that, The rapidly developing system with a secondary can generate it's own cold air. Strong uplift adding to dynamic cooling can allow for accumulating snow on the back side mid Sunday. Of course the 12Z run will add insight, and then the next run as well. That XMas day led to half a foot of slush on the north side of the Baltimore beltway (BWI had almost nothing reported). No crews on a holiday were planned so it led to a mess. This Sunday, not a holiday but could lead to a smaller surprise. The dramatic CAA behind the storm may result in more icy roads and hype up the kids prospects on Monday morning. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yeah I am more worried about the flash freeze thats going to occur once the storm passes. The roads on Monday morning could be tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I loved that storm....There was a more pronounced secondary at our latitude during that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Complete weenie-casting, but the 12z NAM does show some sort of squall-like return on the radar reflectivity well after the front has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Complete weenie-casting, but the 12z NAM does show some sort of squall-like return on the radar reflectivity well after the front has passed. WINDEX? do we even get that down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Does anyone remember the Christmas snow of 2002? That storm had a rapid turn over with ample moisture left over before the cut off. This is starting to remind me of that, The rapidly developing system with a secondary can generate it's own cold air. Strong uplift adding to dynamic cooling can allow for accumulating snow on the back side mid Sunday. Of course the 12Z run will add insight, and then the next run as well. That XMas day led to half a foot of slush on the north side of the Baltimore beltway (BWI had almost nothing reported). No crews on a holiday were planned so it led to a mess. This Sunday, not a holiday but could lead to a smaller surprise. The dramatic CAA behind the storm may result in more icy roads and hype up the kids prospects on Monday morning. Thoughts? If we can keep the moisture around, I can see this happening, but I don't see us getting the low/mid level onshore flow we would need to get a moisture feed from the Atlantic. The 12/25/02 925mb winds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 If we can keep the moisture around, I can see this happening, but I don't see us getting the low/mid level onshore flow we would need to get a moisture feed from the Atlantic. The 12/25/02 925mb winds: I agree, this storm is going to have a strong 850 low to our north so will have generally downsloping northwesterly flow as the cold air comes in with no easterly component. If we see flakes on the back side it will be a victory. The other caceat is that the gfs tends to overdo light precip in the cold air at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The gfs looks very grim in terms of a changeover. The boundary layer temps are too warm so even if we have a brief period of snow and I think the odds are now against that possiblity. the snow probably wouldn't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The gfs looks very grim in terms of a changeover. The boundary layer temps are too warm so even if we have a brief period of snow and I think the odds are now against that possiblity. the snow probably wouldn't stick. Well I'll just enjoy the snow we are getting right now, Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well I'll just enjoy the snow we are getting right now, Wes! Wish I could say the same. As to Sunday's event. I don't see us changing over to snow except maybe back in the higher terrain as teh surface temps are going to be pretty warm. That said, I also never saw this flurrie/dusting event coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Wes, What do you think of the possibility next Thursday or so?... seems like it might have a bit more going for it as the blocking is forecast to hold, and the 50/50 lingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Wes, What do you think of the possibility next Thursday or so?... seems like it might have a bit more going for it as the blocking is forecast to hold, and the 50/50 lingers. The 500 support is pretty paltry so I'm not impressed by what i see on the gfs. It's 500h would need to be quite a bit different than currently is forecast. I guess that is possible as it's way in the future, but despite the nice blocking, the pattern still needs help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Wish I could say the same. As to Sunday's event. I don't see us changing over to snow except maybe back in the higher terrain as teh surface temps are going to be pretty warm. That said, I also never saw this flurrie/dusting event coming. any thoughts on the 12z euro....700mb and temps look favorable from 72-96 for at least snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 any thoughts on the 12z euro....700mb and temps look favorable from 72-96 for at least snow showers. Not really that interested in flurries. I'm more interested in waht happens between 168 and 192 hrs but with the poor temporal resolution there is no easy way to guess whether the light precip get northward into our area or whether it stays suppressed like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It looks like the EC would be good for .18" QPF post BL 0C. The GFS isn't quite so encouraging, with .04" being a stretch, the NAM looks even worse (all IAD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Not really that interested in flurries. I'm more interested in waht happens between 168 and 192 hrs but with the poor temporal resolution there is no easy way to guess whether the light precip get northward into our area or whether it stays suppressed like the GFS. To me, and again not the best resolution images, it looks like the EC is sort'a shearing things apart so we'd be looking at a somewhat crappy overrunning situation. The irony here is, it sure looks like the EC wants to go for some sort of OV/Apps event in the aforementioned time frame. Heights appear to be lifting, quickly, from 144hr - 168hr across the NE as they're tanking (ok "tanking" is relative) across the GL region. Well, the real irony is that it looks like the EC is showing a little bit of "life" to the southern stream...and that life has two choices, hook up with the GL region sw and become an OV/Apps runner, or get torn to pieces as it slides along and to our south...and into our rising heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It looks like the EC would be good for .18" QPF post BL 0C. The GFS isn't quite so encouraging, with .04" being a stretch, the NAM looks even worse (all IAD). lol id just be happy seeing a few flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'd watch that coastal to be a little stronger than models indicated at 00Z Sat. More clouds could hold down day temps a few notches. This may also lead to some added moisture at the start with some icing inland. The Flash Freeze Sunday night could lead to ice problems north and west of Baltimore on Monday morning. Yes, I agree a better chance of snow with next system on Thursday. The Canadian however (better in cold patterns) brings the warmer air through Maryland. We really have to see how this primary system behaves before we will know what the next storm will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'd watch that coastal to be a little stronger than models indicated at 00Z Sat. More clouds could hold down day temps a few notches. This may also lead to some added moisture at the start with some icing inland. The Flash Freeze Sunday night could lead to ice problems north and west of Baltimore on Monday morning. Yes, I agree a better chance of snow with next system on Thursday. The Canadian however (better in cold patterns) brings the warmer air through Maryland. We really have to see how this primary system behaves before we will know what the next storm will do. Was that feature off of the SE coast always there? It's funny because it seems that all eyes were turned West looking at that bomb heading this way and hoping the cold would catch up. Anyway the GFS sure does want to end this thing with at least some flakes flying...regardless if they stick or not it sure has been consistent with at least the falling flakes for several runs on Sunday PM. Next couple of weeks look more icy than white on the models anyway. Surface cold but upper levels a little warm. At least that is what my uneducated eyes see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The NAM this morning seems to be giving a little hope of some light snow Sunday night into Monday morning. I still don't have much confidence, but I guess it keeps a little hope alive. Would be nice to have the ground white at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The NAM this morning seems to be giving a little hope of some light snow Sunday night into Monday morning. I still don't have much confidence, but I guess it keeps a little hope alive. Would be nice to have the ground white at least. Yes, it does, but I remain a skeptic. NW post frontal winds usually do the trick in drying us out with the downslope. You're right, no confidence we see anything. I am not even sure we see too much in the way of rain outside of the usual pre-frontal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 i just dont think there will be a whole lot of moisture around by the time the air is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 If we can keep the moisture around, I can see this happening, but I don't see us getting the low/mid level onshore flow we would need to get a moisture feed from the Atlantic. The 12/25/02 925mb winds: Now why they don't have 925mb winds on NCEP graphics beats the heck out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The southern end of the trough as a really strong vort on it as it passes through after the cold air gets in so we might have break and then a period of light snow with the vort if the NAm is correct. It will be interesting to see what the GFS does. The better moisture would be to east I could now see a coating to an inch. The gfs was little less bullish but still suggested measureable snow though it does have a bias for lighter amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 0z NAM kinda says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 0z NAM kinda says no Kinda said hell no. Sure looks like a cold front and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Kinda said hell no. Sure looks like a cold front and that's it. We will see, still more than 24 hours away. We sure are caught in the middle of the moisture though. 1/2 inch here with way more to the East and on the West side of the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 We will see, still more than 24 hours away. We sure are caught in the middle of the moisture though. 1/2 inch here with way more to the East and on the West side of the mountains The trouble is that the model tend to overdo that kind of snow, the snow back in the cold air with cold advection and the vort just doesn't look quite as good. It could trend back but we're starting to get into its wheelhouse if it actually has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 We will see, still more than 24 hours away. We sure are caught in the middle of the moisture though. 1/2 inch here with way more to the East and on the West side of the mountains The gfs looks better than the nam so there still is hope though it tends to overdo light precipitation in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The gfs looks better than the nam so there still is hope though it tends to overdo light precipitation in the cold air. It looks better than the NAM in the upper levels. More RH at 700. I just assume thats better for any organized sn showers? Ah well, either way, I'd just like to see a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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