First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

[Typhoon Tip]

On the 12z UKMET the weekend storm bombs out! It goes from 1008mb off of Hatteras to 979mb east of Maine. Talk about bombogenesis!!!

Yes, it is actually a bit worrisome that the UKMET is doing this when the 00z ECM went E and the GFS concurs...

The trouble is that this could come back on the 12z Euro run and it wouldn't really be unacceptable that it took the east jog for a run - every model has that right (err, so to speak).

It is interesting that the UKMET has less wave inteference over all; it is like a big reason why it explodes this way.

Will it happen... ? Not sure, but the UKMET does have fairly good marks for 4 days in less - actually better than the GFS for that matter.

[dryslot]

Yes, it is actually a bit worrisome that the UKMET is doing this when the 00z ECM went E and the GFS concurs...

The trouble is that this could come back on the 12z Euro run and it wouldn't really be unacceptable that it took the east jog for a run - every model has that right (err, so to speak).

It is interesting that the UKMET has less wave inteference over all; it is like a big reason why it explodes this way.

Will it happen... ? Not sure, but the UKMET does have fairly good marks for 4 days in less - actually better than the GFS for that matter.

I think more times then not but i could be wrong, That the UKMET is sometimes an indicator to what the Euro may end up looking like

[TheCloser24]

It will definitely be interesting to see what Euro shows in about an hour.

[Ginx snewx]

I think more times then not but i could be wrong, That the UKMET is sometimes an indicator to what the Euro may end up looking like

isn"t the UK in the same position as the 0Z euro?

[ineedsnow]

its better then the accuweather threads there talking about the 6z ECMWF over there lol

Have you guys read the NYC threads lately? i just read thru 2 pages on the storm..Brutal...had to get out of there quickly

[ineedsnow]

20 minutes the fun starts

It will definitely be interesting to see what Euro shows in about an hour.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ukie looks like largely a scarper. It's not a big hit

[powderfreak]

Look closely at that RGEM..That dark blue actually extends right down to MT Tolland...Look if you don't believe me

Haha I'm on my phone so can't see well...I thought it looked around the Pike. For the record I think you get around an inch.

[Typhoon Tip]

Though going off the GFS in the last 4 runs with the first system, the trend has been weaker and more progressive, definitely noteable at 850.

18z 48 hrs

..

12z 30 hrs

..

Not helping no... Buuut, that can also be explained by initialization over the Pac.. Assimilation is very good but only so -

Man, what a fast flow though.

[Mr Torchey]

We're gonna need to maximize the snow tomorrow night...Storm 2 ain't happening

Why is that?

[dryslot]

isn"t the UK in the same position as the 0Z euro?

Not seeing the Ukie, I am not sure, I know that 0z Euro went east from 12z yesterday, It was mentioed it was east of maine, In the Gulf Of Maine? 200 miles east, I don't know

[Mr Torchey]

Having a couple minutes, I like storm 2's chances, potent VM, gfs ens have some good hits, Uk met looked fine and even last nights Euro had a great VM but was just a little east. This will tick closer to the coast, the frontrunner (tomorrow night) seems to be weakening on most models, more progressive. Still very good snows in the berks orh hills and the greens and whites.

Storm 2

[CoastalWx]

There are several big weenies in the GEFS.

[Mr Torchey]

There are several big weenies in the GEFS.

I will take whats behind door pd2 Scooter for 1billion 's

[dryslot]

There are several big weenies in the GEFS.

When you can't see New England thats usually a good sign

[Ginx snewx]

Not seeing the Ukie, I am not sure, I know that 0z Euro went east from 12z yesterday, It was mentioed it was east of maine, In the Gulf Of Maine? 200 miles east, I don't know

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=T2m&hh=072&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=T2m&hh2=024&fixhh=1

[CT Rain]

There are several big weenies in the GEFS.

It does seem like each GEFS run brings more ensembles to the weenie side. Not too long ago 0 had a big storm.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It's what happens in between that I want to see...

[dryslot]

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=T2m&hh=072&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=T2m&hh2=024&fixhh=1

Thanks, Scraper..

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks, Scraper..

Although that precip map I just added is interesting. iDK, wait for Euro, not writing this off yet after last years 72-96 hour OTS adventures

[ineedsnow]

forecast nightmare if the euro shows a hit

[dryslot]

Although that precip map I just added is interesting. iDK, wait for Euro, not writing this off yet after last years 72-96 hour OTS adventures

Just going for here by that posisition of the low east of here...

[CoastalWx]

Euro looks very similar to 00z right now.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

When you can't see New England thats usually a good sign

lol. I'm not the only one that use that analogy I see.

[moneypitmike]

There are several big weenies in the GEFS.

Not bad at all with several of them--especially with time to adjust (assuming it adjusts the right way!).

41.9/40

[TheCloser24]

I think it would be premature to right the weekend storm off just yet, especially after the December 26th storm last year.

[Ginx snewx]

There are several big weenies in the GEFS.

[CoastalWx]

Think Kevin might be good for up to an inch on the euro.

[NJwinter23]

12z Euro through 36... Just in time with the first wave to throw 0.25-0.50 on the cold side between 30-36 hrs from the Catskills through southern/central New England..850 0c line Allentown to Willimantic to Cape Cod... -4c line Scranton to Pittsfield to Portsmouth...Id say a general 1"-maybe 3" in the high spots

[dryslot]

Euro looks very similar to 00z right now.

It does, Maybe a hair north but not much if it is