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First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
Posted

it actually looks fairly similar to 06z, with the exception that the s/w is coming into line with the NAM that could produce a period of heavier precip in CNE/SNE after 00z tmrw night

By 18z Thursday, the 0c 850 line is just through the berkshires...wow yeah 00z is colder than I initially thought. Maybe some accumulations in the berks and ORH hills after 00z

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Man CNE and NNE are really getting screwed out of both of these storms..

Can't really complain. We will get ours and I know there's eventually going to be some 15-30" upslope or orographically driven event that leaves a lot of spots partly cloudy. It's just nice to see someone in New England picking up some early snow.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Gotcha, I guess my weenie nature just picked out the positives, read with a different perspective it makes more sense.

Thanks!

Yeah, it's tough for anyone writing for a public setting... That whole "perspective bias" thing you intimated is a real, real problem - I think part of that is actually even culturally caused...but that is a sociological discussion for another forum.

Anyway, it can be poison. I mean, suppose I did not see your statement and let it go...? (just hypotheticall) Then, suppose there is a break down of the NAM's solution that lended to a disappointment... Who get's blamed for space shuttling people's anticipation?

yeah, right -

Harvey Leonard, whom you probably may not know is an eastern Mass market on-camera Met, once commiserated to me that he has fielded countless phone calls and or emails over the years from angry viewers, who's anger was entirely their fault because of that perspective bias; they themselves took away from his broadcast only what they wanted to hear. It is typical in an entitlement culture of buck-passing, no accountability peoples to blame other's for their miss-fortunes... OOPs slipped a little.

I digressed...

I guess it is unavoidable... and part of the territory.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

GFS looks good for Socks and Will for an inch or two

The models have really cut the amount of precipitation on the backside of the low with the mid-levels not fully developing, so I think 2-4" for the higher terrain of the Monadnocks should do it. Was a cold morning today at 39.9F when I arrived to class, but the temperature has slowly risen into the 40s, meaning that the ground will still be plenty warm for the event, especially with light rain falling right now. I'm definitely expecting accumulating snow but the NAM losing the CCB-like feature as the 700mb trough tried to close is a bit disappointing. It tries to throw back some decent QPF at 36 hours but it lost the intense areas of .5" QPF in a 6-hr frame for the Berkshires/Monadnocks. Looks like a nuisance event, with the main difference being the 12z NAM is quite a bit colder than the 12z GFS.

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

.... back to Nov 8th last year and the slushy mangled flakes most were expecting. profiles were similar. Nice opening salvo for Pike North and Hills of NWCT, Kevs area.

The cold air was a little deeper in that event. Enough so that we had accumulating snow up to a half an inch down to the shoreline. This is a little more borderline and is two weeks earlier. You'll probably still squeeze out a sloppy coating while the coast may be lucky just to squeeze out a few mangled flakes at the tail end, at least in the eastern half of the state.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

The models have really cut the amount of precipitation on the backside of the low with the mid-levels not fully developing, so I think 2-4" for the higher terrain of the Monadnocks should do it. Was a cold morning today at 39.9F when I arrived to class, but the temperature has slowly risen into the 40s, meaning that the ground will still be plenty warm for the event, especially with light rain falling right now. I'm definitely expecting accumulating snow but the NAM losing the CCB-like feature as the 700mb trough tried to close is a bit disappointing. It tries to throw back some decent QPF at 36 hours but it lost the intense areas of .5" QPF in a 6-hr frame for the Berkshires/Monadnocks. Looks like a nuisance event, with the main difference being the 12z NAM is quite a bit colder than the 12z GFS.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

The cold air was a little deeper in that event. Enough so that we had accumulating snow up to a half an inch down to the shoreline. This is a little more borderline and is two weeks earlier. You'll probably still squeeze out a sloppy coating while the coast may be lucky just to squeeze out a few mangled flakes at the tail end, at least in the eastern half of the state.

hence the rest of the post you cut, Pike North NW Hills etc

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

The models have really cut the amount of precipitation on the backside of the low with the mid-levels not fully developing, so I think 2-4" for the higher terrain of the Monadnocks should do it. Was a cold morning today at 39.9F when I arrived to class, but the temperature has slowly risen into the 40s, meaning that the ground will still be plenty warm for the event, especially with light rain falling right now. I'm definitely expecting accumulating snow but the NAM losing the CCB-like feature as the 700mb trough tried to close is a bit disappointing. It tries to throw back some decent QPF at 36 hours but it lost the intense areas of .5" QPF in a 6-hr frame for the Berkshires/Monadnocks. Looks like a nuisance event, with the main difference being the 12z NAM is quite a bit colder than the 12z GFS.

Won't disupute the ground being warm. But with the temp at 40.7 here (and I think you're about the same), looks like the BOX forecasted highs might well fall short today. Perhaps tomorrow as well so we perhaps will need less of a fall.

Of course, in October, one must always grasp whatever straws are availble.

40.7/40

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