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First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

39 10/27 21Z 37 35 21 10 0.17 0.00 546 552 -0.6 -15.2 1007 100 SN 001OVC332 1.0 4.6

42 10/28 00Z 35 33 7 9 0.15 0.00 542 549 -2.9 -16.8 1008 100 SN 001OVC246 1.5 1.5

45 10/28 03Z 33 32 337 9 0.24 0.00 535 545 -5.5 -20.5 1012 100 SN 000OVC162 2.4 0.6

Those are always really accurate.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Glad to see the 12Z NAM perking back N a bit. As I posted last night in the other thread, I was a little worried about the S trend on the 00Z and especially the 06Z runs of the NAM. Due to the NAM's warm and N bias, I was a bit concerned that it was overdoing things a bit, as it has done many times before. Based on the NAM, I'd guess about 2 inches for PSF and perhaps 3.5 or 4 inches for 2K. I expect rain to flip to snow around or shortly after noon for this area. As the ground is warm, it will have difficulty accumulating on most surfaces save for the grass.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Haven’t seen the 12z yet but the 06z was smokes the interior with hours of snow

36023929563 02314 090214 46040099

42026859138 09419 080213 41049897

48027957310 00715 133416 30019792

This is nearly .8” liquid falling as wet snow west of I-95, certainly west of I-495!! That “04” = 4C = 39F at Logan; that implies easily 33F blue snow thumping west of the city. Meanwhile, the bolded far left column is QPF… 18 hours worth. Nice. Notice just how cold it gets at the end, too WOW. -8 at 800mb and -3 and 900 = ~ -5C at 850 with moderate falls still on-going.

Okay, going to see the 12z …stand by …

HOLY Moses -

This is approaching a major snow storm, not just figuratively speaking… if it were not for the warm ground, that is. That may impeded on this. I have seen cool, not frozen, earth start accumulating with substantive fall rates - not sure the roads will be too problematic, though.

24022989562 06209 070317 48070300

30031968556 04412 050319 47050000

36046999317 19317 073519 39019994

42023835805 -2012 133116 26029891 ….the first interval is clearly cold rain at 43F or so at Logan; my guess there is that places like Orange Mass are flipping, or have flipped, to ‘chutes at that point given to having a cold gradient west to east in this. The next interval is a globbing big rain drops with splatting rain from having decomposed snow on windshields at Logan, with wet ‘chutes falling in Cambridge Mass, with straight up moderate blue snow west of I-95. The big gun interval is that nearing .5” liquid equiv QPF value of .46”, while the thermal profile is 33F at the surface and well enough below 32F at the upper levels. Wow, that is a heavy snow signal right there! Tantamount to that observation, the T1 actually rise to 34.5 F at Logan after dynamics pass…. Still way cold aloft though.

This is an event that is really about 5 to 6 weeks ahead of schedule relative to calendar. Amazing, and at least at 800' elevation and above this would probably rival all other October events for the HFD-ORH-FIT-BED region of interior SNE if this 12z verified the way this FRH gridded data paints.

Accumulation is an interesting question as stated above... But, for me, I am long at ease just for the fact that we have the opportunity to discuss this at this point in time. This doesn't appear to be random, either. This appears associated with a large scale synoptic regime change. Not sure if that will mean additional action beyond the 5 days... but the idea of cold at the end of the month and into the first week of November was advertised.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I really wish I knew what the hell that graph is showing.

I'll make it easy for you. That red line is the modeled temp profile of the atmosphere. The scale on the left is in millibars but notice you have meters there too. Notice the lines that slant up and to the right. Those are isotherms. Just follow that red line up through the atmosphere and you can see how it crosses the corresponding isotherms.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

The 6z NAM was pretty much all rain for you so be careful what you wish for

The 12z NAM doesn't look too bad at all. We could be mixing with snow by 33HR and by 36HR I would think we would be snow. Looks like though the heaviest precip will be just off to our east or beginning to taper down so we probably wouldn't accumulate much but perhaps maybe close to an inch for some...maybe 2'' for the higher spots?

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

Haven’t seen the 12z yet but the 06z was smokes the interior with hours of snow

36023929563 02314 090214 46040099

42026859138 09419 080213 41049897

48027957310 00715 133416 30019792

This is nearly .8” liquid falling as wet snow west of I-95, certainly west of I-495!! That “04” = 4C = 39F at Logan; that implies easily 33F blue snow thumping west of the city. Meanwhile, the bolded far left column is QPF… 18 hours worth. Nice. Notice just how cold it gets at the end, too WOW. -8 at 800mb and -3 and 900 = ~ -5C at 850 with moderate falls still on-going.

Okay, going to see the 12z …stand by …

HOLY Moses -

This is approaching a major snow storm, not just figuratively speaking… if it were not for the warm ground, that is. That may impeded on this. I have seen cool, not frozen, earth start accumulating with substantive fall rates - not sure the roads will be too problematic, though.

24022989562 06209 070317 48070300

30031968556 04412 050319 47050000

36046999317 19317 073519 39019994

42023835805 -2012 133116 26029891 ….the first interval is clearly cold rain at 43F or so at Logan; my guess there is that places like Orange Mass are flipping, or have flipped, to ‘chutes at that point given to having a cold gradient west to east in this. The next interval is a globbing big rain drops with splatting rain from having decomposed snow on windshields at Logan, with wet ‘chutes falling in Cambridge Mass, with straight up moderate blue snow west of I-95. The big gun interval is that nearing .5” liquid equiv QPF value of .46”, while the thermal profile is 33F at the surface and well enough below 32F at the upper levels. Wow, that is a heavy snow signal right there! Tantamount to that observation, the T1 actually rise to 34.5 F at Logan after dynamics pass…. Still way cold aloft though.

This is an event that is really about 5 to 6 weeks ahead of schedule relative to calendar. Amazing, and at least at 800' elevation and above this would probably rival all other October events for the HFD-ORH-FIT-BED region of interior SNE if this 12z verified the way this FRH gridded data paints.

Accumulation is an interesting question as stated above... But, for me, I am long at ease just for the fact that we have the opportunity to discuss this at this point in time. This doesn't appear to be random, either. This appears associated with a large scale synoptic regime change. Not sure if that will mean additional action beyond the 5 days... but the idea of cold at the end of the month and into the first week of November was advertised.

Balls to the wall eh?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Balls to the wall eh?

What?

read what was written.... That's a discription of what the NAM grid is showing... Don't put any balls on the wall :)

Having said that, one has to be careful because there is a reason climo is what it is... In order for this NAM solution to verify there has got to be nothing that gets in the way of it - ANY permuting of the parametrics and physics involved and that kind of exotically cool solution has to come in an verify warmer...

If nothing else it is a nightmare for forecasters... NWS doesn't even have specials posted, yet if that NAM block verified you'd have some infrustructural damange issues do to foliage and heavy wet snow in the interior... Interesting..

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

What?

read what was written.... That's a discription of what the NAM grid is showing... Don't put any balls on the wall :)

Having said that, one has to be careful because there is a reason climo is what it is... In order for this NAM solution to verify there has got to be nothing that gets in the way of it - ANY permuting of the parametrics and physics involved and that kind of exotically cool solution has to come in an verify warmer...

If nothing else it is a nightmare for forecasters... NWS doesn't even have specials posted, yet if that NAM block verified you'd have some infrustructural damange issues do to foliage and heavy wet snow in the interior... Interesting..

This is one of your funniest lines ever.. Hilarious :lmao:

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

What?

read what was written.... That's a discription of what the NAM grid is showing... Don't put any balls on the wall :)

Having said that, one has to be careful because there is a reason climo is what it is... In order for this NAM solution to verify there has got to be nothing that gets in the way of it - ANY permuting of the parametrics and physics involved and that kind of exotically cool solution has to come in an verify warmer...

If nothing else it is a nightmare for forecasters... NWS doesn't even have specials posted, yet if that NAM block verified you'd have some infrustructural damange issues do to foliage and heavy wet snow in the interior... Interesting..

Gotcha, I guess my weenie nature just picked out the positives, read with a different perspective it makes more sense.

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