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First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

What you want is that S/W to really blossom that last batch of precip late day in early evening. Whatever falls during the day is nonsense, it's that last hurrah that will get people. I'd feel pretty good from Dave to Pete and up into Socks. I probably would throw Will into that too.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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LOL - it's COLD. by 03z...it implies flakes for almost everyone where there's precip left.

Yeah real cold. It looks like when the model sows good VVs..the solutions have gotten colder. The idea is credible, but not sure how the boundary layer reacts from BOS on se. I suppose if we have nw winds, I could believe that...if the VVs are going to town.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Yeah real cold. It looks like when the model sows good VVs..the solutions have gotten colder. The idea is credible, but not sure how the boundary layer reacts from BOS on se. I suppose if we have nw winds, I could believe that...if the VVs are going to town.

Odds of 1" imby....30%ish imo.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Yeah real cold. It looks like when the model sows good VVs..the solutions have gotten colder. The idea is credible, but not sure how the boundary layer reacts from BOS on se. I suppose if we have nw winds, I could believe that...if the VVs are going to town.

Yeah the NAM has definitely trended stronger from 6z. Good sign.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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LOL - it's COLD. by 03z...it implies flakes for almost everyone where there's precip left.

Not sure when things will flip, but the 0* 850 is on my head at 15z tomorrow. Not sure if I'm doing the math right, but it looks like .75" comes down after that? Must be doing the math wrong--of course it is the NAM so maybe not.

40.1/39

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Not sure when things will flip, but the 0* 850 is on my head at 15z tomorrow. Not sure if I'm doing the math right, but it looks like .75" comes down after that? Must be doing the math wrong--of course it is the NAM so maybe not.

40.1/39

It''s not all about H85....surface factors in, too.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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Yeah real cold. It looks like when the model sows good VVs..the solutions have gotten colder. The idea is credible, but not sure how the boundary layer reacts from BOS on se. I suppose if we have nw winds, I could believe that...if the VVs are going to town.

still tough to buy a solution *that* cold. it has sub 530 thicknesses thursday night and friday - way way colder than the euro

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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It''s not all about H85....surface factors in, too.

That's why I said I wasn't sure about what it meant in terms of the flip. With regard to surface, I had been harping on the ground temps as a mitiating factor for accumulation since the weekend.

They're calling for highs in the low 40's before dropping off. That drop off will be key. Of course, so will the high itself. The call for today is upper 40's. I'm now at 39.8/38. A good bust on temps tomorrow could be significant.

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40/70 Benchmark

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Actually, I had been harping on the ground temps as a mitiating factor for accumulation since the weekend.

They're calling for highs in the low 40's before dropping off. That drop off will be key. Of course, so will the high itself. The call for today is upper 40's. I'm now at 39.8/38. A good bust on temps tomorrow could be significant.

Well, I was only referring to that one post....didn't imply you weren't.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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still tough to buy a solution *that* cold. it has sub 530 thicknesses thursday night and friday - way way colder than the euro

Yeah agreed. I don't think I'll have 526 thicknesses tomorrow night. The NAM is more of a concern for these parts as the high elevations will defintely change over. I could envision a 34-35F flip to wet snow flakes for an hour or so around here. Maybe a crappy coating if I'm lucky.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Yeah agreed. I don't think I'll have 526 thicknesses tomorrow night. The NAM is more of a concern for these parts as the high elevations will defintely change over. I could envision a 34-35F flip to wet snow flakes for an hour or so around here. Maybe a crappy coating if I'm lucky.

Yea, that sounds reasonable.

I think 1" is my ceiling.

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