First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

[Boston-winter08]

snow expanding in Upstate NY

[40/70 Benchmark]

History will be made for the 2nd time in 4 months.

[weatherwiz]

History will be made for the 2nd time in 4 months.

We're on the PP with this pattern...it's time to score.

[Logan11]

The NAM is well out to sea with Saturday's storm. ...OTS for everyone ...not just me in the deep interior.

[weatherwiz]

The NAM is well out to sea with Saturday's storm. ...OTS for everyone ...not just me in the deep interior.

H5 really doesn't look all too bad really.

[N. OF PIKE]

The NAM is well out to sea with Saturday's storm.

toss it lol

perhaps the euro is having issues like it did last year in the nina

[dryslot]

The NAM is well out to sea with Saturday's storm. ...OTS for everyone ...not just me in the deep interior.

Nam @ 84 is like chewing gum on the bottom of a shoe, It sucks

[N. OF PIKE]

History will be made for the 2nd time in 4 months.

kiss of death

[Bostonseminole]

NAM blows but it's not really in its wheelhouse.. but at least it has the storm.

[Tropopause_Fold]

man...poor kevin...maybe the top of his house and his tree tops get some accumulation?

OUR BEST THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE

BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS

EVENING...MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS OVER 1000 FEET.

[CoastalWx]

man...poor kevin...maybe the top of his house and his tree tops get some accumulation?

OUR BEST THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE

BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS

EVENING...MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS OVER 1000 FEET.

I think he has an hour or two of snow perhaps. It's just a race when you get south of the CT border, no matter the elevation.

[Mr Torchey]

Snow finally mixing in down at Jackson Gore base lodge at Okemo, mountaintop is ripping, Killington is cranking, would think the higher elevations of the berks and southern nh should start to mix over the next two hours

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The fact that the Euro gives an unprecedented amount of snow on the immediate coast for this early in the season is red flag #1 maybe. we'll see.

Ripping rain here now, wind is continuing to build as well. A steady NE at 15 now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The fact that the Euro gives an unprecedented amount of snow on the immediate coast for this early in the season is red flag #1 maybe. we'll see.

Ripping rain here now, wind is continuing to build as well. A steady NE at 15 now.

Right, but it probably has the best idea.

[powderfreak]

The fact that the Euro gives an unprecedented amount of snow on the immediate coast for this early in the season is red flag #1 maybe. we'll see.

Ripping rain here now, wind is continuing to build as well. A steady NE at 15 now.

Anytime a record event is being forecast you need to pause...there have certainly been a lot more "record" events on the models than in reality over the years.

[ChrisM]

The fact that the Euro gives an unprecedented amount of snow on the immediate coast for this early in the season is red flag #1 maybe. we'll see.

Ripping rain here now, wind is continuing to build as well. A steady NE at 15 now.

It wasn't just the euro showing a hit for a lot of places...

[Organizing Low]

ironic that the habs are in town, they will see their first flakes of the season in the boston area?....perhaps i'll get to see some shots on tv

[weatherwiz]

Anytime a record event is being forecast you need to pause...there have certainly been a lot more "record" events on the models than in reality over the years.

This is where you have to look at anomalies and such.

I think I have one of the links that shows that stuff.

If you're seeing something on the anomaly maps which are pretty significant then that's a reason to open the eyes wider.

The standard deviation maps I'm thinking of.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It wasn't just the euro showing a hit for a lot of places...

I know, but it's also a pretty historic event. Let's face it, we've had many in the last two winters in the northeast 1/3 of the country..so maybe this is no different?

We'll know soon!

[Logan11]

I drove right past Killington on Friday ....alas six days too soon. Barnes Corners in the Tug Hill Plateau of NY also has snow now.

Snow finally mixing in down at Jackson Gore base lodge at Okemo, mountaintop is ripping, Killington is cranking, would think the higher elevations of the berks and southern nh should start to mix over the next two hours

[CoastalWx]

Guys, we should move any talk about storm 2 over to Bob's thread.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think he has an hour or two of snow perhaps. It's just a race when you get south of the CT border, no matter the elevation.

yeah i think so too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Guys, we should move any talk about storm 2 over to Bob's thread.

[Damage In Tolland]

3-5 hours of snow tonight. Chaneover happens around 6-7:00pm at KTOLL

[HoarfrostHubb]

Guys, we should move any talk about storm 2 over to Bob's thread.

Did you move the euro images yet?

[CoastalWx]

Notice how sharp the cutoff is, thanks to the frontogenesis.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011102712&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1

[Damage In Tolland]

Yup

...1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY

ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE

REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH IS

EXPECTED TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO WET SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS TO WHEN EXACTLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE

TO WET SNOW. OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM

AND 8 PM THIS EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

THE WET SNOW MAY FALL MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME THIS

EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. ROADWAYS

MAY BECOME SLUSH COVERED AND SLIPPERY...MAINLY ACROSS ELEVATIONS NEAR 1000 FEET.

HOWEVER...A DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF WET SNOW IS

STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL THE PRECIPITATION

SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.

[N. OF PIKE]

Yup

...1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY

ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE

REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH IS

EXPECTED TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO WET SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS TO WHEN EXACTLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE

TO WET SNOW. OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM

AND 8 PM THIS EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

THE WET SNOW MAY FALL MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME THIS

EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. ROADWAYS

MAY BECOME SLUSH COVERED AND SLIPPERY...MAINLY ACROSS ELEVATIONS NEAR 1000 FEET.

HOWEVER...A DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF WET SNOW IS

STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL THE PRECIPITATION

SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.

A.R.T

[weatherwiz]

The trough is a bit sharper at 33 HR compared to the NAM.

[OKpowdah]

Notice how sharp the cutoff is, thanks to the frontogenesis.

http://rapidrefresh....omain=t3&wjet=1

Yeah glad you pointed it out. That's the weak deformation I've mentioned. That should help enhance precip a bit up here, with a sharper cutoff into N NH and VT