powderfreak Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I know Phil, and he is secretly hoping for this storm to nail him this weekend with rain wind and violent catpaws. Who doesn't like violent catpaws? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Who doesn't like violent catpaws? lol Phil would be happier than anyone with 50kt winds in his face. He is a storm weenie, but I love a good storm myself. There's something cool about getting a storm that whips rain or snow in your face at 50kts. Who cares about ratios when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 One interesting element--at least for a first event of the year situation will be the roads. It would seem that if we get some low ratio snows on the roads and have the temps drop into the forecasted 20's, they might be a little slick. Either way--no need to worry about clearing the driveway. Even if I get 4", it'll be shortlived as an October snow. No need to clear anything until we're developing the seasonal pack. 40.5/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 This will be pretty clumpy stuff. Will cut down on the depth, but hopefully major major tree damage Power outages in excess of Gloria (channeling Blizz and snowNH there - I'll take my 2" and post pics) Hopefully it stays around through Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 i wouldn't go for more than an inch anywhere under 1k the ground is mild and most precip is outta here by 7pm on the latest models for w. mass and vt nearly all precip falls during the day....with much less during evening...i think even elevations up to 1500 or so could get a sloppy gloppy inch but not much more for SNH 2 inches for socks 1/2 glop for will and other E and low lying will see first flakes and that's it. i like savoy state park and woodford state park as jackpots with the top of wa wa getting several as well but those are the only areas i would give more than 2 inches to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Those SREFs boost the confidence for MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 ??? Look how close that gradient is for 1" snow probs near him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Look how close that gradient is for 1" snow probs near him. I'm trying to figure out the 8" panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I'm trying to figure out the 8" panel Looks erroneous. That happens from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I think the NAM comes a bit north too. S/W out in IL looks like it is a little more tighter, so maybe a tick north, but also a happy ending for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looks erroneous. That happens from time to time. It would be i have about a 0 chance at 1" but a 50%+ of 8"...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 NAM is quicker with the approach of that S/W in the OH Valley. It's pretty potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 NAM looks like it really cranks some good precip at 21z in western areas then moves east. Flip to snow heading ese from the Berks and Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Phil would be happier than anyone with 50kt winds in his face. He is a storm weenie, but I love a good storm myself. There's something cool about getting a storm that whips rain or snow in your face at 50kts. Who cares about ratios when that happens. Yeah I love storm days. We don't get the winds in low elevations like you guys on the coast, but the upper mountain at the ski area can be brutal during some events. The worst is sleet when you are mixing down a 60-70kt H85 jet out of the SE or something...it's like getting shot with a pellet gun in the face. Nothing better than the sound of flapping Gore-Tex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 that actually looks fairly reasonable imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 boom on the nam for CNE/SNE at 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I think the MAN comes a bit north too. Shortie out in IL looks like it is a little more tighter, so maybe a tick north, but also a happy ending for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 that actually looks fairly reasonable imo. Yeah I agree... the probabilities themselves seem reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 it's looking to me like S vt is pretty much the only lock for sizeable accums i.e....woodford state park at 2300 ftw I'm also sold on towns like rowe mass savoy mass etc peru mass i.e 1800' + getting hammered as well i do wonder if MPM's 1000' will be enough if most precip falls by 6pm over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 NAM would imply a good burst of SN even down to Kevin at 00Z. Heck even at 00z I look to be as well....lol. It's quicker overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 that actually looks fairly reasonable imo. It shows the gradient well...which will happen somewhere between him and Will possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I need to re-do this pic. Good luck on the snow just to my southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Those SREFs boost the confidence for MPM. I like the band of 8" probs in NNE yet they don't appear to be getting 1 or 4". lol 40.1/39, .02" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I may see an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I may see an inch Yeah easily...just check in your pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yeah easily...just check in your pants. Seriously, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I like the band of 8" probs in NNE yet they don't appear to be getting 1 or 4". lol 40.1/39, .02" You like that? I mentioned it a few post back..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 NAM would imply a good burst of SN even down to Kevin at 00Z. Heck even at 00z I look to be as well....lol. It's quicker overall. LOL - it's COLD. by 03z...it implies flakes for almost everyone where there's precip left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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