First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

[bboughton]

You're in for a surprise.

Just getting settled in wiht my coffee--time to catch up on the models and thread.

Meanwhile, 39.2/38

rn, .04" so far.

[Damage In Tolland]

Kev, you'll get measurable...but those pics are funny..lol.

I'm the first one to lock this event all the way back to Sunday..so my 1-2 inches for here looks pretty good.

Just got back from a quick 5 mile run..started raining about 10 mins ago and a quick downpour as I cruised into the driveway.44.7

[CoastalWx]

Looking at the euro maps, it still is a race between the cold and the DS on the euro.

[Damage In Tolland]

NOGAPS did come west..it hits us with light precip.

The Euro ensembles being a decent hit at 66 hours is a huge red flag. We aren't 4-5 days out anymore.

There we have it..SSS rule

It's time to lock the weekend storm

[CoastalWx]

I'm the first one to lock this event all the way back to Sunday..so my 1-2 inches for here looks pretty good.

Just got back from a quick 5 mile run..started raining about 10 mins ago and a quick downpour as I cruised into the driveway.44.7

I think an inch should do it...maybe a hair less, but I hope you get more.

Very cold rain here at work and 43F.

[CoastalWx]

Even I get a sapling snapper this weekend. Wow.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think an inch should do it...maybe a hair less, but I hope you get more.

Very cold rain here at work and 43F.

1-2 with an out side shot at 2.5 is my final call

[Damage In Tolland]

Even I get a sapling snapper this weekend. Wow.

Would it start Sat afternoon or night?

[CoastalWx]

Would it start Sat afternoon or night?

By aftn.

[CoastalWx]

Kev, you would get nailed too.

[bboughton]

What's GFS say?

Kev, you would get nailed too.

[CoastalWx]

It's -5 fooking celcius on the euro at 850. You can't even get that in the middle of winter sometimes.

It's almost too good to be true. Now watch this come right into SNE...lol.

[dendrite]

The Euro ensembles being a decent hit at 66 hours is a huge red flag. We aren't 4-5 days out anymore.

66-72h QPF it has the 0.50-1.00" line up to the Pike whereas the op is at the S coast. Even I get over 0.25". There has got to be some juicy members in there.

[ineedsnow]

6z gfs is looking great so far

[CoastalWx]

I'm surprised the ensembles are that juicy given the location of the low. I don't see too much spread, but it might have the right depiction of a very large deformation area on the nw side of the low.

[CoastalWx]

GFS still is a little warm with maybe a 203 hr burst of snow before it ends at ORH.

[CoastalWx]

Brian, I think you'll do ok later today and tonight.

[moneypitmike]

Like the difference in probs between 4" and 8". SREF say to you "go big or go home". lol

Congrats MPM on the clown map...pretty nice for here too

that' the lock, right there!

There we have it..SSS rule

It's time to lock the weekend storm

I think you have a better shot of picking up a couple inches this weekend. Still need some work for out here.

Good luck today, everyone!

39.0/38,

I think I might have a leaf in the bucket--damn.

[ineedsnow]

gfs might be caving to the euro

[bboughton]

More interested in Saturday.

Brian, I think you'll do ok later today and tonight.

[CoastalWx]

More interested in Saturday.

Oh I meant Dendrite..lol. But, good to know your name.

[dendrite]

Brian, I think you'll do ok later today and tonight.

Yeah I'm starting to feel it a little more. 6z NAM has me down to 33F by 00z with a little over a tenth after that.

Didn't see it mentioned, but the Ukie looks good for the weekend as well.

[bboughton]

Touche.

How is the GFS looking for Sat.? I don't speak models, I just creep the forum.

Oh I meant Dendrite..lol. But, good to know your name.

[ineedsnow]

looked like it was going to be big but not there yet still offshore but a west trend from 0z

Touche.

How is the GFS looking for Sat.? I don't speak models, I just creep the forum.

[MaineJayhawk]

GFS still is a little warm with maybe a 203 hr burst of snow before it ends at ORH.

Wow, Will must be stoked for that!

[moneypitmike]

BOX says "No clown map for you".

MAZ002-272030-

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN...

SHELBURNE

418 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

.TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH

WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS

IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN

THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. COLDER WITH

LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO

20 MPH IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

My P/C has 1-2" during the day though........

Also, HWO has no mention of the weekend.

[CoastalWx]

GFS ticked a hair west, but sharp cutoff with it, n&w of ORH.

[moneypitmike]

looked like it was going to be big but not there yet still offshore but a west trend from 0z

Saturday's forecast from BOX for GC says "no trending for you".

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF FROST. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S

38.9/38

[HoarfrostHubb]

39.5F. Getting cooler

RN-

[MaineJayhawk]

Saturday's forecast from BOX for GC says "no trending for you".

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF FROST. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S

38.9/38