First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

[ORH_wxman]

GFS has a nice burst at the end like the NAM, buts its BL is still pretty darn warm...though it does look a shade cooler here at 00z compared to the 18z run for 00z tomorrow. Still warm though.

[ChrisM]

is the GFS far enough out for the weekend storm to be shown?

edit: i looked myself, nice break from homework. Lets see if it gets kicked off after Hr57. Looks decent til then

[ineedsnow]

threw hr 57 it looks better for the weekend

[ineedsnow]

gfs looks to give us a storm saturday early call though

[weatherwiz]

Certainly looks better with the trough and southern stream s/w than the NAM at 57

[ChrisM]

is the "kicker" for the weekend storm that little disturbance over Mich. at Hr 57 on the 00z run?

[OKpowdah]

00z GFS has much more of a phase going on for storm 2. Could be interesting

[ineedsnow]

never in a 100 years would i think i would be hitting the refresh button this many times in october lol

[ChrisM]

ohboy.

[weatherwiz]

Still would probably like to see a bit of a sharper trough but the phasing certainly will try and make this interesting.

[Mr Torchey]

gfs caving, storm 2 on, will it be cold enough?

[ChrisM]

lock in 3-6 for the weekend for Kev with this run haha

[Amped]

63 hrs comming close to Fredneck. Higher elevations outside DC stand a chance

And moves due east sort of like 2/10/10 Sme precip for SNE but SNJ Del marva get the brunt

[weatherwiz]

GFS actually starts getting some closed lows too at 850/700!

[Boston-winter08]

just back from a 3-hour taxes exam...looks like things are trending west again for saturday, awesome

[ineedsnow]

close but doesnt do it this run but its getting there

[Boston-winter08]

72 hours has the 0.1" QPF out to springfield... .25" to KTOL

[ORH_wxman]

A scraper on the GFS for this weekend...maybe the higher terrain would pull off some small accums? Hopefully it comes another tick west.

[ChrisM]

Storm #2 is in a good spot on this run.

[OKpowdah]

Still scooting out early. I wouldn't mind seeing tomorrow's event speed up just so we can get some better ridging to build in between

[OKpowdah]

A scraper on the GFS for this weekend...maybe the higher terrain would pull off some small accums? Hopefully it comes another tick 200 miles west.

agreed

[ORH_wxman]

The vortmax track on the GFS for the weekend is nearly perfect...I'm betting it would actually produce a little better than its surface depiction shows if that 5h came true. I'd like it a little sharper, but thats a pretty potent vortmax.

[weatherwiz]

A scraper on the GFS for this weekend...maybe the higher terrain would pull off some small accums? Hopefully it comes another tick west.

Considering where we are in terms of hours out I sort of like where things stand. At least as we're getting closer we aren't really seeing anything trend in a negative way. While we still have some ways to go we've seen a bit more in the way of positives than we have negatives. If the Euro is similar to the GFS or even a tick west that would be very encouraging. Even the NAM considering the timeframe wasn't all too bad.

[ChrisM]

close but doesnt do it this run but its getting there

I'm more or less happy with it being there right now, a lot of times things tend to turn out more progressive than progged so if storm (or whatever you want to call it) #1 gets out of here early enough it could allow storm #2 to come west a little bit more than runs have been showing previously. Tomorrow nights 0z runs will be extremely telling as storm #1 will be more or less gone at that point.

[weatherwiz]

Does that look like a weak inverted trough signal out by the Cape from 75-78 HR?

[ORH_wxman]

Well looks like the Canadians weren't interested in running the RGEM tonight.

[H2Otown_WX]

Considering where we are in terms of hours out I sort of like where things stand. At least as we're getting closer we aren't really seeing anything trend in a negative way. While we still have some ways to go we've seen a bit more in the way of positives than we have negatives. If the Euro is similar to the GFS or even a tick west that would be very encouraging. Even the NAM considering the timeframe wasn't all too bad.

The overall height field at 500 mb looks better in comparison to the 18z run but the end product is actually a weaker shortwave because it's leaving a piece of energy behind right around Buffalo, NY.

18z:

00z:

[weatherwiz]

Well looks like the Canadians weren't interested in running the RGEM tonight.

Too busy still trying to figure out whether or not Chara should be prosecuted.

[weatherwiz]

The overall height field at 500 mb looks better in comparison to the 18z run but the end product is actually a weaker shortwave because it's leaving a piece of energy behind right around Buffalo, NY.

The s/w is still pretty potent though so not sure if that would really affect things much, especially with some great phasing taking place. I guess if the s/w can be a little weaker and allow for better looking height fields I'm down for that.

[ineedsnow]

im looking forward to seeing the ensembles tonight