First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

[HoarfrostHubb]

I do hope CT folks get over a coating... 1-2 sloppy for them

[weatherwiz]

Great friend you are.

Wiz, where the heck are you seeing the dry air at 0Z?

By 3z the dry air is very pronounced but it's not completely awful at 0z.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Looks like at 00z even the valley at BDL has flipped to snow. HFD is still rain.

A touch more boundary layer warmth on the NAM here with the 00z run. Not exactly a big surprise lol.

I think as early as monday you mentioned the possibility of snow sticking all the way down into Northampton. Good call.

[CT Rain]

I think as early as monday you mentioned the possibility of snow sticking all the way down into Northampton. Good call.

Thanks appreciate it... I think Northampton could get a slushy inch or so.

[moneypitmike]

Thanks appreciate it... I think Northampton could get a slushy inch or so.

Where can I find surface temps? Arent' they available somewhere?

[ORH_wxman]

It looks like it flips to snow here right around 21z on the NAM. Up in Rindge/AFN its closer to 18z...a little later perhaps.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Where has BIrving gone?

[Ginx snewx]

This is at Union CT, look how unstable this is, could be some unexpected heavy rates, T snow? At least convection

[weatherwiz]

This is at Union CT, look how unstable this is, could be some unexpected heavy rates, T snow? At least convection

I was thinking that last night but none of the convective indices that you look at in this case are really eye popping. Unless they've improved from last night's runs.

[moneypitmike]

It looks like it flips to snow here right around 21z on the NAM. Up in Rindge/AFN its closer to 18z...a little later perhaps.

I have it pegged as just about 19z here.

Meanwhile, seems the temp has finally begun to slowly tip downward. Lost .5* in the last half hour or so.

41.4/40

[weatherMA]

Yeah it has >0.25" between 00z and 03z from a ORH-HFD line south and east.

I would love to get 2". I'd like the gfs to come in cooler obviously though. Nam has consistently been the coolest.

[moneypitmike]

Time to head up to bed and follow this on my phone a bit.....might need some map descriptions.

[mattb65]

I realize we get a lot of flak here for our posting style and some really do not understand our passion. It's not just about the actual snow, it's the chase too. Sort of like chasing that girl you saw and got tingles thinking about, you finally talk, hold hands, kiss and then consummate, the entire process is fun. Just like love sometimes it is from afar and you never even get to hold her hand but you still dream of it, other times there is nothing after the hand holding, so close yet so far, frustrating. When you do run the gamut there is nothing better. Last Jan I made love to my fantasy girl twice in a month and the entire process could not have been more pleasurable. I am a weenie through and through.

3 buns :weenie:

[weatherwiz]

Some really nice lift at 700mb moves through between 21z and 0z

[weathafella]

The reason it was so big, was because about 84h out is when the Euro kind of lost the storm a bit to the right. For like two runs it did...so when the ETA went bonkers with it, the next run was huge to see if other guidance would start bringing it up to us.

I remember DT screaming..,it's crap but he spelled it carp I think......too funny.

[Ginx snewx]

I was thinking that last night but none of the convective indices that you look at in this case are really eye popping. Unless they've improved from last night's runs.

Wes taught me about unstable soundings, looks prety classic.

[ORH_wxman]

Wes taught me about unstable soundings, looks prety classic.

The drier air working in up at that level might inhibit any possible thunder. The best soundings for thundersnow are usually a very deep saturated layer with intense lift and a MAUL of at least 100mb. If the moisture was deeper in this, then we could get it.

[weatherwiz]

Wes taught me about unstable soundings, looks prety classic.

Nice

I would definitely go by that then over numbers.

Besides summer time convection I don't know if I know how they look in snow setups...might have to do some quick reading while I wait for the GFS to come out.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

NAM amped up for the weekend?

[ski MRG]

I realize we get a lot of flak here for our posting style and some really do not understand our passion. It's not just about the actual snow, it's the chase too. Sort of like chasing that girl you saw and got tingles thinking about, you finally talk, hold hands, kiss and then consummate, the entire process is fun. Just like love sometimes it is from afar and you never even get to hold her hand but you still dream of it, other times there is nothing after the hand holding, so close yet so far, frustrating. When you do run the gamut there is nothing better. Last Jan I made love to my fantasy girl twice in a month and the entire process could not have been more pleasurable. I am a weenie through and through.

LOL, personal I know but are you getting laid?

Lol 5 inches

Hope someone sees 4-5"

Hey.

He will claim 6-8"

I knew your sweet Mr.Nice act was BS. Why don't you get back over to OT and make nice with your MA friends.

[MarkO]

NAM amped up for the weekend?

Was going to say it looks like we got a juicy deuce hooking up the coast... or at least west of the previous

[moneypitmike]

I realize we get a lot of flak here for our posting style and some really do not understand our passion. It's not just about the actual snow, it's the chase too. Sort of like chasing that girl you saw and got tingles thinking about, you finally talk, hold hands, kiss and then consummate, the entire process is fun. Just like love sometimes it is from afar and you never even get to hold her hand but you still dream of it, other times there is nothing after the hand holding, so close yet so far, frustrating. When you do run the gamut there is nothing better. Last Jan I made love to my fantasy girl twice in a month and the entire process could not have been more pleasurable. I am a weenie through and through

Stalker?

[NorEastermass128]

NAM amped up for the weekend?

At 60, looks good at 500. Should at least brush SEMA.

[Chrisrotary12]

NAM looks loaded for the weekend storm.....I still think we have to wait and see what happens with Rina.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM amped up for the weekend?

I'd like to see that southern stream vortmax hold together better. The northern stream is digging pretty good at 60hr, but it doesn't look like it will be quite enough for a big storm...it could be a cape scraper this run though.

[weathafella]

The pattern has changed.

[Mr Torchey]

I'd like to see that southern stream vortmax hold together better. The northern stream is digging pretty good at 60hr, but it doesn't look like it will be quite enough for a big storm...it could be a cape scraper this run though.

Huge step in the right direction compared to previous runs.

[MarkO]

uh oh..... I suspect lots of weenies

[moneypitmike]

I'd like to see that southern stream vortmax hold together better. The northern stream is digging pretty good at 60hr, but it doesn't look like it will be quite enough for a big storm...it could be a cape scraper this run though.

One step at a time. I just hope we can take lots of them. Especially those in the hinterlands. I'd be getting pretty excited if I were from Dave and ese from there.

[ChrisM]

1 day...1 day left in the period