moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 SREF probabilities....very little shot now at 4"+ on them Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Tip being succinct means fewer than 500 words Neat that in 20 hours it might be snowing here Probably 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM at 00z just a touch warmer. but there appears to be more hang back precip comparing the 00z run to the 18z run for the 00z Friday window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 00z NAM really rocks for a lot of people around 00z tomorrow. Man, if its right, a lot of people will get measurable, even some lower down folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I realize we get a lot of flak here for our posting style and some really do not understand our passion. It's not just about the actual snow, it's the chase too. Sort of like chasing that girl you saw and got tingles thinking about, you finally talk, hold hands, kiss and then consummate, the entire process is fun. Just like love sometimes it is from afar and you never even get to hold her hand but you still dream of it, other times there is nothing after the hand holding, so close yet so far, frustrating. When you do run the gamut there is nothing better. Last Jan I made love to my fantasy girl twice in a month and the entire process could not have been more pleasurable. I am a weenie through and through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 SREF probabilities....very little shot now at 4"+ on them I'm still quite pleased to be sitting in the 75% range of at least 1". The biggest model consistency this week has been W. Ma and S. Vt having the best shot at getting snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Bummer. AWT? Late October...4" is a fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM at 00z just a touch warmer. but there appears to be more hang back precip comparing the 00z run to the 18z run for the 00z Friday window Yeah it has >0.25" between 00z and 03z from a ORH-HFD line south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I realize we get a lot of flak here for our posting style and some really do not understand our passion. It's not just about the actual snow, it's the chase too. Sort of like chasing that girl you saw and got tingles thinking about, you finally talk, hold hands, kiss and then consummate, the entire process is fun. Just like love sometimes it is from afar and you never even get to hold her hand but you still dream of it, other times there is nothing after the hand holding, so close yet so far, frustrating. When you do run the gamut there is nothing better. Last Jan I made love to my fantasy girl twice in a month and the entire process could not have been more pleasurable. I am a weenie through and through. It's not the kill, It's the thrill of the chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not only is the 0z NAM a touch too warm in the BL for accumulating snow in northern CT but by 0z there is a GREAT deal of dry air that works in aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Tip being succinct means fewer than 500 words Neat that in 20 hours it might be snowing here Probably 22 Fecetious (sp?) NAM at 00z just a touch warmer. but there appears to be more hang back precip comparing the 00z run to the 18z run for the 00z Friday window It's interesting---850 line seems to come down pretty quick once it hits Mass. Not sure what's going on at the surface yet, but seems like some decent qpf after it passes through, particularly in the expected places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 00z NAM really rocks for a lot of people around 00z tomorrow. Man, if its right, a lot of people will get measurable, even some lower down folks. Pretty consistent, lock it up dude 2-5 north of the Pike 1-2 hills of Ct, coating to the coast final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Sim radar for 00z tomorrow...that would be ripping snow for a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah it has >0.25" between 00z and 03z from a ORH-HFD line south and east. Just looking at the crude NCEP maps, someone would get paste bombed in that area, maybe a lot of you. Who knows how much it sticks but it'll look like winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Pretty consistent, lock it up dude 2-5 north of the Pike 1-2 hills of Ct, coating to the coast final call. Lol 5 inches Hope someone sees 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Boom at 3z anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Pretty consistent, lock it up dude 2-5 north of the Pike 1-2 hills of Ct, coating to the coast final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lol 5 inches Hope someone sees 4-5" Pete? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like at 00z even the valley at BDL has flipped to snow. HFD is still rain. A touch more boundary layer warmth on the NAM here with the 00z run. Not exactly a big surprise lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Sim radar for 00z tomorrow...that would be ripping snow for a lot of people But wouldn't the insane amount of dry air in the mid levels be a killer? EDIT: The REALLY dry air works in between 0-3z NVM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Actually just looking at the rough maps I think everyone down to near the canal would at least see snow falling at some point. I'd be on the wet edge, we may see some snow falling here but the water is still so warm. I wonder if interior SE MA, MQE, North Easton, Sharon etc get smoked pretty good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Pete? He will claim 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 But wouldn't the insane amount of dry air in the mid levels be a killer? EDIT: The REALLY dry air works in between 0-3z NVM Maybe help cool the column for moisture coming in later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Actually just looking at the rough maps I think everyone down to near the canal would at least see snow falling at some point. I'd be on the wet edge, we may see some snow falling here but the water is still so warm. I wonder if interior SE MA, MQE, North Easton, Sharon etc get smoked pretty good? Wrentham Wrecker? Attleboro Aniahlator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 But wouldn't the insane amount of dry air in the mid levels be a killer? Only if that is where the lift is...most of the intense lift is below the dry layer. You want good lift in saturated layer to get heavy precip...since this is kind of anafrontal event, you often get really sloped fronts and the lift can be lower than a normal synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 He will claim 6-8" Great friend you are. Wiz, where the heck are you seeing the dry air at 0Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wrentham Wrecker? Attleboro Aniahlator? Closer to you will be the Athol Ass-kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Maybe help cool the column for moisture coming in later? Well the bulk of the moisture will already be ongoing...the drier air is working in as the heaviest precip is over the area. Kind of seems like the mid level dry air works in once some locations finally become cold enough to flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So---let's see what the GFS has to say about temps...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Only if that is where the lift is...most of the intense lift is below the dry layer. You want good lift in saturated layer to get heavy precip...since this is kind of anafrontal event, you often get really sloped fronts and the lift can be lower than a normal synoptic setup. I see, makes sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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