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First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Do you recall how much attention/postng there was before the 10/16 and 10/18 2009 events?

This seems pretty large for a sloppy inch or 2

Oh there was plenty of discussion leading up to the '09 events...the 2nd event was a bit of a surprise though. It was really marginal in the mid-levels.

This event has a bit more upside than the 2009 events...but it could def just end up as an inch or two. But if everything breaks right, we could def see some spots get 4". I'd still lean conservative at this point though.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

The main problem this time of year is that the subsurface soil temps are still warm. This time of year we're normally in the step down process of slowly cooling those 6" soil temps. The lowest my 6" soil temp has been this season was this morning and that was 50F. Obviously with cold enough temps and heavy rates that can be overcome (Foxboro a couple years ago), but it's tough to do in October in the lower els.

We'll have latent heating/cooling processes occurring too. I think I've seen a few mention already how melting snow can cool the column. On the flip side, anyone with a wet ground that gets down to 32F will be having that water begin to freeze which is actually latent heating. There's a reason why columns often end up at an isothermal 0C or 2m temps across a region can all be near 32F.

Anyways, I digress...hopefully you make out well down there. I think I'll end up < 1" and haven't ruled out the possibility of no accums at all imby.

What effect will the water saturated ground here have? Doesn't the extra water add extra potential heating energy?

I'm not expecting much accumulation due to that and other factors. Even if not sticking it will be fun to watch it ripping flakes for a while.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Yep, water ice too.

Nice. We had put a standing seam on our home up in Maine--money well-spent. We also went with it for the renovation we did. On the main house, we've kept the slate but we've added snow shields.

Meanwhile, temperature is stuck. I had a low of 38.3 and a high of 42.0. Sitting at 41.9 now.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The main problem this time of year is that the subsurface soil temps are still warm. This time of year we're normally in the step down process of slowly cooling those 6" soil temps. The lowest my 6" soil temp has been this season was this morning and that was 50F. Obviously with cold enough temps and heavy rates that can be overcome (Foxboro a couple years ago), but it's tough to do in October in the lower els.

We'll have latent heating/cooling processes occurring too. I think I've seen a few mention already how melting snow can cool the column. On the flip side, anyone with a wet ground that gets down to 32F will be having that water begin to freeze which is actually latent heating. There's a reason why columns often end up at an isothermal 0C or 2m temps across a region can all be near 32F.

Anyways, I digress...hopefully you make out well down there. I think I'll end up < 1" and haven't ruled out the possibility of no accums at all imby.

The little shift south hurt, but I think an inch is possible up there. I guess if everything is shunted se than all bets are off, but I'll stick by that.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I still have to find a place to measure snow this winter. Our front porch is being taken down so there is a dumpster in the yard and in order to bring the dumpster in a bunch of bushes had to be cut down so I may have a spot I can measure, however, it's still not going to be an ideal spot.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

One thing to watch is some bad snow growth tomorrow. The NAM at 21z looks good at first look for BDL and ORH but there's a dry tongue above 600mb (where the -10c isotherm is) that could be problematic.

Yeah when I was looking at 12z bufkit soundings there was a great deal of dry air above 600mb and where the best snow growth zone was located. This was the NAM (not sur eif the GFS showed this) but did the 18z NAM bufkit have this dry air as well?

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