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First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

LOL..I love that pic.. that was when they were at their best.

If the VP would pay me the right amount..I would be up there in a heartbeat. Tell him to contact me

Haha I remember it because we then had a discussion about how if we try to make the snowbanks look bigger in lean years, people may think we have more snow than we actually do. As it is now the snowbanks are almost immediately bladed and pushed back. But what if we changed our snow management plan to include a post-storm day sculpting by SNE's best?

Haha enjoy the snow tmrw.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Thoughts Ryan/Phil?

i like the areas we've been outlining really...higher terrain in S/C NH & VT and then elevated areas of MA & probably down into the high terrain of NW CT for season's first accumulation. no real secrets there i guess. LOL.

i could see someone like MRG and Socks cashing in pretty nicely (3 to 5"?) as the lower levels are pretty chilly there even by mid-afternoon thursday so they could flip pretty early on and will actually have a relatively cold column to work with during the height of this event. if you look at the euro's 925 temps they are still pretty warm S of the MA/CT border at 00z and i think the heart of this intensity-wise is up until that point, so it'll be a race between moisture leaving and cold arriving for those areas i think.

still, looks like a lot of the area has a shot of at least seeing some flakes flying.

the NAM looks too cold to me.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

i like the areas we've been outlining really...higher terrain in S/C NH & VT and then elevated areas of MA & probably down into the high terrain of NW CT for season's first accumulation. no real secrets there i guess. LOL.

i could see someone like MRG and Socks cashing in pretty nicely (3 to 5"?) as the lower levels are pretty chilly there even by mid-afternoon thursday so they could flip pretty early on and will actually have a relatively cold column to work with during the height of this event. if you look at the euro's 925 temps they are still pretty warm S of the MA/CT border at 00z and i think the heart of this intensity-wise is up until that point, so it'll be a race between moisture leaving and cold arriving for those areas i think.

still, looks like a lot of the area has a shot of at least seeing some flakes flying.

the NAM looks too cold to me.

Maybe it's just my upbringing in the SE CT tropics, but it seemed the winner on the race between cold arrival vs. moisture departure was overwhelmingly the departure.

41.5/40, rn- .01"

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Your endless summer. :)

I really dont understand. During the 55 day mega torch i posted dailies and talked about the CURRENT weather. Is that strange, or should I have been talking about fantasy winter forecasts?

I hope you enjoy the snow, its a very rare event to happen pre Halloweenie, with the potential for several inches of snow, not just a frothy covering. Next five days look cold, so I will enjoy this stretch, and if by some miracle I get to see a single dendrite on Saturday I will cherish it, if not I can wait for winter lol. Make sure you post lots of pics, us Tropical folk will be living vicariously through you mountain peeps!

Enjoy the :snowman: Mike!:thumbsup:

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

i like the areas we've been outlining really...higher terrain in S/C NH & VT and then elevated areas of MA & probably down into the high terrain of NW CT for season's first accumulation. no real secrets there i guess. LOL.

i could see someone like MRG and Socks cashing in pretty nicely (3 to 5"?) as the lower levels are pretty chilly there even by mid-afternoon thursday so they could flip pretty early on and will actually have a relatively cold column to work with during the height of this event. if you look at the euro's 925 temps they are still pretty warm S of the MA/CT border at 00z and i think the heart of this intensity-wise is up until that point, so it'll be a race between moisture leaving and cold arriving for those areas i think.

still, looks like a lot of the area has a shot of at least seeing some flakes flying.

the NAM looks too cold to me.

Euro seems to favor more Will and points west and north. That's what I was telling Kevin in that it will be a race between the cold and moisture south of the Pike. But it did have a nice burst at the end which maybe helps Kevin out in getting 0.5 to 1.0". We'll see how the 12z runs go.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Euro seems to favor more Will and points west and north. That's what I was telling Kevin in that it will be a race between the cold and moisture south of the Pike. But it did have a nice burst at the end which maybe helps Kevin out in getting 0.5 to 1.0". We'll see how the 12z runs go.

That highlighted statement might have been lifted from the BOX AFD this morning.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Euro seems to favor more Will and points west and north. That's what I was telling Kevin in that it will be a race between the cold and moisture south of the Pike. But it did have a nice burst at the end which maybe helps Kevin out in getting 0.5 to 1.0". We'll see how the 12z runs go.

yeah his area is a tough call. one of the products i have show PVD getting .24" after 00z and HFD around .13" in the same period...so figured tolland's in that .15" ballpark on the euro for after 00z....so if he flips at that point and it's coming down at a good clip he could accumulate some. i could see an hour either way making a fair difference between just some slush or flakes and an inch or so. for the borderline areas it'll be tough with ground temps. etc - it'll have to really come down hard to get over that hump of just wet flakes melting on contact etc.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

The 6z NAM is a perfect example of how this could become a disaster.

The sfc low continues to trend weaker and weaker on the NAM. Instead of a burst of northerly winds in the boundary layer as the ageostrophic flow accelerates as the low bombs we get a gentle breeze. It won't be enough. NAM 2M/BL temps have trended warmer and given the NAM's wet bias I probably wouldn't forecast more than flakes for most places. Even places with elevation that are north (i.e. Mt Socks) may miss out on the best forcing if the southerly trend continues.

I think if the 6z NAM verified the toaster baths would happen in the valleys and in the mountains.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

The 6z NAM is a perfect example of how this could become a disaster.

The sfc low continues to trend weaker and weaker on the NAM. Instead of a burst of northerly winds in the boundary layer as the ageostrophic flow accelerates as the low bombs we get a gentle breeze. It won't be enough. NAM 2M/BL temps have trended warmer and given the NAM's wet bias I probably wouldn't forecast more than flakes for most places. Even places with elevation that are north (i.e. Mt Socks) may miss out on the best forcing if the southerly trend continues.

I think if the 6z NAM verified the toaster baths would happen in the valleys and in the mountains.

If you take one in october, You will miss out on the other 10 chances in the next few months

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

they really show how much of a race it is - with precip essentially done by 03z...short window to work with for those borderline zones.

6hr precip of maybe 0.15 or so down at the Revs. He may have switched over at like 22 or 23Z, but yeah a race for sure. We'll see if the NAM comes north, my hunch is that it will come a little north.

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