First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

[moneypitmike]

Psst, Blizz doesn't really want to be hooked up.

Focus is on temp accuracy. QC anyone?

[Baroclinic Zone]

lol no kidding. The GFS is so freaking warm compared to the NAM it's a lot more than their usual 24-hour disagreement.

If you take a compromise you get some slushy accumulation... but if the NAM is right we're talking about much more impressive snows even south a bit.

18z NAM won't be correct. Has TAN getting 2.6". No way on gods green earth is that happening for me.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The 18z GFS ensembles have several good weenie solutions for the weekend storm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f84.html

Order me a P009

[Damage In Tolland]

So no answer on Oct 79 similarities.. Cool

[Baroclinic Zone]

lol just posted that too... great minds think alike

Looks like a few members really screwing the mean.

[Amped]

Focus is on temp accuracy. QC anyone?

Should have used vodka, you can get it below zero without it freezing.

[ORH_wxman]

lol just posted that too... great minds think alike

Its def a bit eye opening when the ensembles are more amped than the OP on a coastal.

[CT Rain]

Looks like a few members really screwing the mean.

I was looking at the individual members... not the mean. The majority are closer to the coast than the op run.

[CT Rain]

Its def a bit eye opening when the ensembles are more amped than the OP on a coastal.

Happens once or twice a winter and it's normally a good sign that the thing is coming west.

[Amped]

Order me a P009

We're all out of P009s, would you like an ARW4?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

[moneypitmike]

The 18z GFS ensembles have several good weenie solutions for the weekend storm

http://www.meteo.psu...NE_18z/f84.html

The majority of the 18z ensemble members are more amped than the op. Definitely a red flag for the weekend.

Something fun for most of the posters to keep an eye on for personal impacts. For the few, the proud, the hill-folk, we wish you luck and hope something crazy happens where it can back up here.

[joey2002]

Happens once or twice a winter and it's normally a good sign that the thing is coming west.

Will we stay cold enough though in NE CT?

[Baroclinic Zone]

I was looking at the individual members... not the mean. The majority are closer to the coast than the op run.

i was looking at both and the mean is still meh

[CT Rain]

i was looking at both and the mean is still meh

I really don't put much stock in the ensemble means for SLP/QPF placement. They only tell you so much. The individual members are much more valuable.

[MarkO]

Didn't the ensambles look better last run?

[moneypitmike]

We're all out of P009s, would you like an ARW4?

http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html

I like a mix--ARW4 and ETA2 please.

[HoarfrostHubb]

So no answer on Oct 79 similarities.. Cool

I had searched for info on Oct 79 the other day...didnt find too much. A couple of maps, couple of news stories

[Baroclinic Zone]

I really don't put much stock in the ensemble means for SLP/QPF placement. They only tell you so much. The individual members are much more valuable.

i guess you're missing my point. i'm on the same page as will and you.

[moneypitmike]

i guess you're missing my point. i'm on the same page as will and you.

Pete stopped posting for a while as he's wiring up his snow magnet to draw the Saturday system in.

[snowman21]

Focus is on temp accuracy. QC anyone?

You know what you can do with a glass of ice water and that kind of thermometer? Measure dew point the old fashioned way!

[snowNH]

Did you guys see those pictures from Denver and down trees? I think there should be some concern in NE for storm 1 and especially if storm 2 hits. I think they only got like 5 or 6 inches too.

I know its far out still, but I'm not really liking the look of the precip over OH and MI. Its really spotty.

[CT Rain]

i guess you're missing my point. i'm on the same page as will and you.

Oh I gotcha... sorry I misread your post.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pete stopped posting for a while as he's wiring up his snow magnet to draw the Saturday system in.

Naw... he is chillin with his peeps in OT

[HoarfrostHubb]

You know what you can do with a glass of ice water and that kind of thermometer? Measure dew point the old fashioned way!

I wish I had a sling cyclometer... or whatever it is called

[moneypitmike]

Did you guys see those pictures from Denver and down trees? I think there should be some concern in NE for storm 1 and especially if storm 2 hits. I think they only got like 5 or 6 inches too.

I guess you're not buying any of the totals BOX is sellling.........

[dryslot]

i guess you're missing my point. i'm on the same page as will and you.

I gotcha bob, Not that it means much

[Damage In Tolland]

I had searched for info on Oct 79 the other day...didnt find too much. A couple of maps, couple of news stories

I guess Will and Ryan don't remember the event

[moneypitmike]

I wish I had a sling cyclometer... or whatever it is called

psychrometer? I had one in my weather station when I was 8 years old. My brother's used a BB gun to take out my anemometer. Guess I couldn't get decent wind readings then, either.

[CT Rain]

I guess Will and Ryan don't remember the event

What do you want to know about it? It was a week after the BDL tornado lol

[Damage In Tolland]

What do you want to know about it? It was a week after the BDL tornado lol

I had asked you if tomorrow's event bore any similarities to it besides it being an Oct snowstorm