First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

[powderfreak]

You figure the Euro dropping 1-3 from the CT River east on Saturday night can probably be extended west a bit since it tends to under estimate qpf on west fringes..I'd extend it back to CT/NY border

Is that true or is it a weenie rule?

[Typhoon Tip]

AWT

HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HOURS

OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY WET SNOW MAY AFFECT THE

INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...AS FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT LOOKS RATHER STRONG

DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY

FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THIS MAY COINCIDE WITH THE EVENING

RUSH HOUR...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

EVEN THOUGH THE GROUND IS VERY WARM BEING THAT ITS LATE OCTOBER...WE

HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST THAT IF SNOW COMES DOWN HEAVY IT WILL

ACCUMULATE.

I'm sure I'll catch some crap for making this statement (undeserved...), but this reminds me of the day before December 23, 1997, when the forecast read: "Light rain and wet snow, accumulation around 1-3", most in the elevations" - that sort of wordage..

(Different system, no analog, shut up and read...)

Why?

Because it is the same sort of thing where the ETA of the day wasn't taken very seriously when it was painfully obvious looking at the gridded data that a cold solution would take place in the interior. Guess what happened... I emailed Harv the day before warning that it would be more white than 1-3" of glop, otherwise rain...

It was clear as a bell in Middlesex County Mass at 5am, and about 19F, with a moderately sized polar dome receding NNE... Cloud wall came in and capped those low level cold partial thickness such that the temp labored to raise to 24F by 10 am... Meanwhile, radar showed a massive area of dbz so bright thta a severe thunderstorm in June would have been jealous of, careening toward the area from LI... I figured that had to be sleet. My buddy called me and said it was snow. Whaaaaaa ?

2.5 hours later at 27F and whiteout down to 30 feet of 7" per hour glory I was thinking back to the day before, and how the (then) ETA model had a T1T3T5 of ~ 020097 (translated: +2C at 980 mb level, 0C at 900mb, and -3 at 800mb).

Here, the NAMs FRH grid (the same grid as the then ETA FOUS) is even colder, at 029794... With 20 units of UVV for dynamic mixing to overcome a pittiful +2C resistance to cooling nonetheless. Yet, we get this kind of like ...I dunno, 'spin' for lack of better word, toward a primarily elevation scenario, going under QPF for even 8::1, not much accumulation lower down interpretation? Okay...

About the only thing going for that when using the NAM is climo; but even that would be bad logic because climo is the result of add events divided by n events, and doesn't say anything about a specific occurrence - only that said occurence may be rarer or not... So if this it, and it is very rare, so be it...

Thankfully, there is the nice warm GFS to fall back on here (I guess).

18z held serve.. I don't see it as being substantially warmer enough to curb the 12z thinking of what the NAM is saying...

Folks, the NAM is inside 36 hours here. There is too much popularity to toss that as a source, but I have found it skill to be satisfactory inside of 48 - Just imo

[dendrite]

Once past 4:00 it will have no trouble sticking on grass and trees..It's basically no sun angle by then. No worries

There's still going to be the iffy BL and wet/warm ground. The sun angle itself isn't a huge deal this time of year...it's about the equivalent of mid Feb. With the midday persistent -RA the insolation will probably be negligible anyways.

[powderfreak]

BOX is really playing low-ball wrt to accumulations. For the western most zones, they're calling for 1-3". I'm thinking more, but maybe I'm doing too much crack.

I dunno, I think 2-3" is probably fair as an expectation. If you are expecting more than 1-3" you might be setting yourself up to be let-down in October.

I've looked through their zones and point forecasts and I do not see anything close to an entire county reaching even widespread 3"+ amounts for an Advisory, yet they talk about issuing headlines. I don't know why it bothers me (like it does snowman21) but I hope they don't issue something for 1-3" of snow. that can be covered in a Special Weather Statement.

SINCE ITS A LATE 2ND AND 3RD PERIOD EVENT AND UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHANCE THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS SO STAY TUNED.

[CoastalWx]

It will be hard to get more than 4" in this unless it lasts a bit longer.

I figure a few inches..so maybe around 3 should do it as the max for his place I guess.

[Damage In Tolland]

There's still going to be the iffy BL and wet/warm ground. The sun angle itself isn't a huge deal this time of year...it's about the equivalent of mid Feb. With the midday persistent -RA the insolation will probably be negligible anyways.

Yeah we all had clouds and light rain today and 40's for highs..Drop to near 40 tonight and then slowly fall tomorrow with northerly drain..and precip..ground will be chilly enough to have it stick..as long as it comes down mod/heavy for 2-3 hours or more hopefully

[ORH_wxman]

I figure a few inches..so maybe around 3 should do it as the max for his place I guess.

I think I'd probably go like 1.6" here now instead of 2.3". Not that the sun angle is a huge deal, but just general diurnal range and the fact it seems to be trying to move the precip out pretty quickly...but it might be a touch too fast. As long as the vortmax is west of us, it should be continuing.

The sfc temps aren't overly cold either. I'd feel better if we saw some upper 20s in NNE trying to drain down.

[powderfreak]

I'm sure I'll catch some crap for making this statement (undeserved...), but this reminds me of the day before December 23, 1997, when the forecast read: "Light rain and wet snow, accumulation around 1-3", most in the elevations" - that sort of wordage..

(Different system, no analog, shut up and read...)

Why?

Because it is the same sort of thing where the ETA of the day wasn't taken very seriously when it was painfully obvious looking at the gridded data that a cold solution would take place in the interior. Guess what happened... I emailed Harv the day before warning that it would be more white than 1-3" of glop, otherwise rain...

It was clear as a bell in Middlesex County Mass at 5am, and about 19F, with a moderately sized polar dome receding NNE... Cloud wall came in and capped those low level cold partial thickness such that the temp labored to raise to 24F by 10 am... Meanwhile, radar showed a massive area of dbz so bright thta a severe thunderstorm in June would have been jealous of, careening toward the area from LI... I figured that had to be sleet. My buddy called me and said it was snow. Whaaaaaa ?

2.5 hours later at 27F and whiteout down to 30 feet of 7" per hour glory I was thinking back to the day before, and how the (then) ETA model had a T1T3T5 of ~ 020097 (translated: +2C at 980 mb level, 0C at 900mb, and -3 at 800mb).

Here, the NAMs FRH grid (the same grid as the then ETA FOUS) is even colder, at 029794... With 20 units of UVV for dynamic mixing to overcome a pittiful +2C resistance to cooling nonetheless. Yet, we get this kind of like ...I dunno, 'spin' for lack of better word, toward a primarily elevation scenario, going under QPF for even 8::1, not much accumulation lower down interpretation? Okay...

About the only thing going for that when using the NAM is climo; but even that would be bad logic because climo is the result of add events divided by n events, and doesn't say anything about a specific occurrence - only that said occurence may be rarer or not... So if this it, and it is very rare, so be it...

Thankfully, there is the nice warm GFS to fall back on here (I guess).

18z held serve.. I don't see it as being substantially warmer enough to curb the 12z thinking of what the NAM is saying...

Folks, the NAM is inside 36 hours here. There is too much popularity to toss that as a source, but I have found it skill to be satisfactory inside of 48 - Just imo

So what are you saying? Sooner or later you gotta just put a forecast up. Are you forecasting the NAM to be right or no?

And I think most on here do think that most areas will end as wet snow. Not sure why that would be surprising if in fact it does end up with a white coating or an inch or even 2 in the interior.

[CT Rain]

I'd like to see the 18z GFS tick west for this weekend

[powderfreak]

Yeah we all had clouds and light rain today and 40's for highs..Drop to near 40 tonight and then slowly fall tomorrow with northerly drain..and precip..ground will be chilly enough to have it stick..as long as it comes down mod/heavy for 2-3 hours or more hopefully

I always think the problem is more if your lawn and other areas are still trying to soak up a half inch or more of rainfall before the change-over. If it was 40F and just started snowing on dry ground you have no problem accumulating even in October. If you're trying to accumulate on puddles and soggy wet ground it can be a bit frustrating unless its really coming down under half mile vis type stuff.

[CoastalWx]

I think I'd probably go like 1.6" here now instead of 2.3". Not that the sun angle is a huge deal, but just general diurnal range and the fact it seems to be trying to move the precip out pretty quickly...but it might be a touch too fast. As long as the vortmax is west of us, it should be continuing.

The sfc temps aren't overly cold either. I'd feel better if we saw some upper 20s in NNE trying to drain down.

It will be fun to see what happens. I suppose you have the potential for 2"+ if you get into the meat of a band, but we don't know exactly how it will play out. I could see someone in ne mass doing a little better than first thought possibly. Who knows, maybe Ray will beat Kevin...I'm not totally joking either. I'd say between 22z and 02z, it should come down good in SNE in one form or another. Maybe 03z ORH east.

[CoastalWx]

I'm starting to feel confident I'll see my first flakes since early last Spring and not just mangled crap.

[moneypitmike]

I dunno, I think 2-3" is probably fair as an expectation. If you are expecting more than 1-3" you might be setting yourself up to be let-down in October.

I've looked through their zones and point forecasts and I do not see anything close to an entire county reaching even widespread 3"+ amounts for an Advisory, yet they talk about issuing headlines. I don't know why it bothers me (like it does snowman21) but I hope they don't issue something for 1-3" of snow. that can be covered in a Special Weather Statement.

SINCE ITS A LATE 2ND AND 3RD PERIOD EVENT AND UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHANCE THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS SO STAY TUNED.

I've been thinking 3" for the last few days. Guess that may play out. I must be getting sucked in by the recent NAM qpf and not taking crappy ratios and warm ground into account enough. It will become crystal clear I think once we see drops changing to flakes what the end result might be.

[weatherMA]

I'd like to see the 18z GFS tick west for this weekend

I'm pretty sure everyone here would.

[moneypitmike]

I'd like to see the 18z GFS tick west for this weekend

Ya think?

[Typhoon Tip]

So what are you saying? Sooner or later you gotta just put a forecast up. Are you forecasting the NAM to be right or no?

And I think most on here do think that most areas will end as wet snow. Not sure why that would be surprising if in fact it does end up with a white coating or an inch or even 2 in the interior.

I'm saying the NAM is pointing to a snow storm for the interior... probably 4-6" inches of blue snow ... 7::1 type stuff.

I admit to being at odds with calendar and wanting to wait to the last minute to go against climo here - for that I don't fault anyone.

I think I would go for 2-5" from low to higher elevations, and then state boldly that it is a low confidence forecast because there are indicators for more. There's nothing wrong with employing a caveat emptor on these things. In fact, lay-folks appreciate the honesty up front more I believe.

No one likes a "it will do this" call that looks ridiculous in the end. Probably why JB has as many detractors as he has followers. There's no reason to polarize one's self in this.

[moneypitmike]

I always think the problem is more if your lawn and other areas are still trying to soak up a half inch or more of rainfall before the change-over. If it was 40F and just started snowing on dry ground you have no problem accumulating even in October. If you're trying to accumulate on puddles and soggy wet ground it can be a bit frustrating unless its really coming down under half mile vis type stuff.

You know what, it really piles up nicely on unraked leaves.

Now begins all the focus on little things like, it's already 41.7* (.3 off my high). My forecast low tonight is 35 and the high tomorrow is 37. What if I drop lower? What if I don't? Ah--the fun of winter and wishcasting and now-casting.

41.7/40.

[snowNH]

It will be fun to see what happens. I suppose you have the potential for 2"+ if you get into the meat of a band, but we don't know exactly how it will play out. I could see someone in ne mass doing a little better than first thought possibly. Who knows, maybe Ray will beat Kevin...I'm not totally joking either. I'd say between 22z and 02z, it should come down good in SNE in one form or another. Maybe 03z ORH east.

I don't wanna jinx it, but the 18z NAM looked really good for all SNH. It has the entire storm below 0c at 850 with 1-1.25" of QPF. I know the higher terrain will do better initially, but with the temps crashing, and the change over occurs here a little earlier, I don't see any reason why areas around MHT and ASH couldn't pick up 2-3"+ of snow.

MPIT: Well I was 5/day posted last night so you won't have to worry about me posting that much.Set the record for the Earliest to be 5/day for winter lol

[moneypitmike]

I don't wanna jinx it, but the 18z NAM looked really good for all SNH. It has the entire storm below 0c at 850 with 1-1.25" of QPF. I know the higher terrain will do better initially, but with the temps crashing, and the change over occurs here a little earlier, I don't see any reason why areas around MHT and ASH couldn't pick up 2-3"+ of snow.

You've got to remove that red from you name, man--it makes me pay attention to your posts. j/k

[ski MRG]

You know what, it really piles up nicely on unraked leaves.

Now begins all the focus on little things like, it's already 41.7* (.3 off my high). My forecast low tonight is 35 and the high tomorrow is 37. What if I drop lower? What if I don't? Ah--the fun of winter and wishcasting and now-casting.

41.7/40.

Nice overnight low tomorrow night. A few inches of new snow, lows around 20, October as it should be.

Thursday

Night

Snow

Likely

Lo 22 °F

[powderfreak]

I'm saying the NAM is point to a snow storm for the interior... probably 4-6" inches of blue snow ... 7::1 type stuff.

I admit to being at odds with calendar and wanting to wait to the last minute to go against climo here - for that I don't fault any anyone.

I think I would go for 2-5" from low to higher elevations, and then state boldly that it is a low confidence forecast because there are indicators for more. There's nothing wrong with employing a caveat emptor on these things. In fact, lay-folks appreciate the honesty up front more I believe.

No one likes a "it will do this" call that looks ridiculous in the end. Probably why JB has as many detractors as he has followers. There's no reason to polarize one's self in this.

Cool and nice... 2-5" with the potential for more... that would be very sweet to see happen. Sorry didn't mean for that last post to come off a little aggressive. I had just been seeing the other mets throwing around some numbers now that we are close in. Was just seeing what your professional opinion was beyond the "what if" type posts.

[snowman21]

I'm saying the NAM is pointing to a snow storm for the interior... probably 4-6" inches of blue snow ... 7::1 type stuff.

I admit to being at odds with calendar and wanting to wait to the last minute to go against climo here - for that I don't fault anyone.

I think I would go for 2-5" from low to higher elevations, and then state boldly that it is a low confidence forecast because there are indicators for more. There's nothing wrong with employing a caveat emptor on these things. In fact, lay-folks appreciate the honesty up front more I believe.

No one likes a "it will do this" call that looks ridiculous in the end. Probably why JB has as many detractors as he has followers. There's no reason to polarize one's self in this.

Hey Accu-Weather already has the graphic out showing major snowstorm from the panhandle of VA through WV, central and eastern PA to the northern 'burbs of the city and into NW CT/W MA. Guess they are going for it with that graphic. Of course they also have a second storm track on the graphic that slides the low off the SE coast and harmlessly out to sea.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM clown map...id probably slice these totals in half if not more

[Mr Torchey]

Good to see CT~Blizz calling for 1-3 for Ct on Saturday night after writing off the storm midday

[Damage In Tolland]

It will be fun to see what happens. I suppose you have the potential for 2"+ if you get into the meat of a band, but we don't know exactly how it will play out. I could see someone in ne mass doing a little better than first thought possibly. Who knows, maybe Ray will beat Kevin...I'm not totally joking either. I'd say between 22z and 02z, it should come down good in SNE in one form or another. Maybe 03z ORH east.

LOL..Just once I'd like to see a post from you and Will that says..

Kevin will beat Ray.. I'm really pulling for Kevin

[moneypitmike]

NAM clown map...id probably slice these totals in half if not more

Nonsense--I like my 8".

[powderfreak]

Nice overnight low tomorrow night. A few inches of new snow, lows around 20, October as it should be.

Thursday

Night

Snow

Likely

Lo 22 °F

Lol that is pretty sweet... I've seen some upper teens thrown around here and there for up this way some of these upcoming nights. Lows in the upper teens and highs in the upper 30s... finally some BELOW normal weather! All those times of saying that highs in the 50s to near 60F were nice and cool... well this is going to be what negative departures feel like, haha.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL..Just once I'd like to see a post from you and Will that says..

Kevin will beat Ray.. I'm really pulling for Kevin

I was making fun of him before 2/24/10 that he would get nothing from that elevation bomb and you would beat him. You changed over to rain faster than I thought, but I still remember ribbing him.

[ORH_wxman]

Nonsense--I like my 8".

Eh, looks more like 6" for Shelburne.

[ski MRG]

You weren't. You posted the Alaska thing in mid September

Wrong, I posted the first time in September and within a week it snowed on the east coast. I again posted the Willow connection a week ago. You were in your torch coma. Ginx has recognized my achievement, sad that you can't.